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I don't see the Dems gaining seats in the House. The economy's crappy and the opposition party usually wins seats in the first off year election during an administration. In essence, this is 1982 all over again, with the parties reversed ; Obama's Reagan and the GOP then are the Dems now (in terms of positioning). Given the margin that the Dems have in the House, they'll keep the House. The Senate is another story. That'll be very close. Whoever controls that will control it by the barest of majorities. I'm starting to think that control of the Senate will be a toss-up. Members of both parties will lose seats but more Dems will lose seats than Republicans. Although with Burris not running for election his seat (Obama's old seat) will stay in Dem hands. As stated before the only Republicans sure to lose their seats will be Vitter (who faces a strong challenge from Charlie Melancon, although Melancon would hardly be a loyal Dem vote in the Senate) and Jim Bunning (who has an undistinguished record in the Senate, an approval rating in the 20s, and some strong Dem challengers). As for the person who mentioned Rand Paul's possible challenge to Bunning, he'd get treated as badly by the national GOP as his dad did in 2008, and a primary challenge would just strengthen the Dems.
I do not know if it will be that close in the senate. Bear in mind republicans need to win 11 seats for control and only 18 Dem seats up for election. Some like the 2 seats in NY, and the seats in DE, AR, HI, ND, WI, IN, OR, MD, VT, and WA are considered safe democratic. Leaving only 6 who may lose their seats and in CA, CT, CO, IL, PA and NV and many of those are not likely to change either. One prediction I will make is that while republicans certainly can make gains in the senate I do not think they will be able to take it over.
I've added a poll to this thread, though late, in hopes of capturing some easy to see opinions.
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We have to start now to prevent the disastrous loss of control that will be created by Republicans winning ANY more seats in the House or the Senate. We need the time to change the direction of the country from neocon madness to the current centrist policies.
I think if all of them all of a sudden turned gay and checked into rehab, they would still win by a landslide. The Dems are finished in Congress....and Govs too...
I do not know if it will be that close in the senate. Bear in mind republicans need to win 11 seats for control and only 18 Dem seats up for election. Some like the 2 seats in NY, and the seats in DE, AR, HI, ND, WI, IN, OR, MD, VT, and WA are considered safe democratic. Leaving only 6 who may lose their seats and in CA, CT, CO, IL, PA and NV and many of those are not likely to change either. One prediction I will make is that while republicans certainly can make gains in the senate I do not think they will be able to take it over.
I disagree about Gillibrand's seat and the seats in DE, HI, ND, and IN being safe Dem seats. Those seats are all likely to go GOP. CT's assured to go GOP. Dodd, Dorgan, Inouye, Bayh, and Gillibrand are all going to lose, and the open seat in DE is going to go to former DE GOP governor Mike Castle. Add those to the 6 seats that you mentioned and that's 12 seats.
Therefore, Obama will probably face a Republican Senate (held by an exceptionally slim majority) and a Dem House albeit one with a 50-60 seat majority instead of an 80 seat majority.
Another factor to take into consideration: what if Robert Byrd and/or Ted Kennedy die before the 2010 election? While the appointees who'd fill those seats are likely to keep them, there's a possibility that Byrd's seat or, if the NE GOP comeback is strong enough, even Teddy's might be taken by a Republican (although this is less likely than Byrd's seat going GOP).
I disagree about Gillibrand's seat and the seats in DE, HI, ND, and IN being safe Dem seats. Those seats are all likely to go GOP. CT's assured to go GOP. Dodd, Dorgan, Inouye, Bayh, and Gillibrand are all going to lose, and the open seat in DE is going to go to former DE GOP governor Mike Castle. Add those to the 6 seats that you mentioned and that's 12 seats.
You're way too optimistic. Even if the GOP wins Gillibrand's seat, it will just be a NorthEast Republican which is not much better than a moderate (D) though Gillibrand is no moderate. Same with Delaware; Castle is a joke who supported Cap and Trade. As much as I would like him to lose, Bayh will carry IN again. Dorgan will also win.
CT is competitive and I would like to see Peter Schiff win, but it is a solid blue state. I would not rule CT as a GOP lock.
Democracy (to some extent) in the U.S is a joke! For one since you only have two real parties you are forced to vote for the lesser of two evils (Bush vs Kerry, Gore vs Bush) you get the point. Secondly, when was the last time a "commoner" won a congressional or senate seat? The majority of the politicians are so out of touch with the average joe it is absurb! The vast majority of office holders are lawyers, which by the way is properly the most despised occupation in the country.
This brings to mind, why politicians are more loyal to a party than the people that they are suppose to represent?
Sorry 'bout the rant I just wanted to get that off of my chest
I can't say this with full confidence. But, Sarah Palin became Governor of Alaska as an average Joe.
The media did everything but shove a stake through her heart.
I'm not a huge Palin fan .... but, when you have a media that only has one agenda, that's what you get.
I think it's time to put the pitchforks to the media.
100 channels on cable, and all you get is a one sided media. It's already seemingly OK to be gay. What else do they want?
The United States has to get the Democrats out in 2012. Every time this happens, everyone remembers why Democrats shouldn't be in power. They always **** away our freedom.
Republicans will win more Congressional seats because people like Barbara Boxer are so obviously loons. Why would anyone pay her $150,000 a year to act like a loon?
Unless we want more taxes and government spending, Republicans had better gain some seats
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