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Old 09-10-2009, 03:30 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,858 posts, read 16,675,449 times
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Quite a few Republicans on here have predicted major Democratic loses next year, some of whom have suggested the GOP will regain Majorities in Both the House and Senate next year.

So I present this challenge to them...

Who are the, Democrats you feel will be knocked off next year? and what Republican candidates will be able to knock them off?
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Old 09-10-2009, 03:37 PM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
77,813 posts, read 91,676,367 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Quite a few Republicans on here have predicted major Democratic loses next year, some of whom have suggested the GOP will regain Majorities in Both the House and Senate next year.

So I present this challenge to them...

Who are the, Democrats you feel will be knocked off next year? and what Republican candidates will be able to knock them off?
I can honestly say I do not think the republicans will take back the house and I am a republican from the word go, but I do think they will make some serious gains. It is too soon to say who will go down, here in AR Blanche Lincoln is going to have her hands full it appears. It is way too soon to say she will be defeated. If the NV election were held today, the democrats coudl kiss Reed good-bye. That is another one, but there is still 14 months to go.

Let's see who others think could pull it off.

Nita
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Old 09-10-2009, 06:07 PM
 
4,925 posts, read 10,261,950 times
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I don't know, but I know many of the Democrat's own strategists, depending on who they are have been predicting that if current trends continue that they could lose 20-50 seats in the house...big gap, but none of them as of right now are predicting the dems keeping seats.

It seems the dems most in trouble in the house are the "blue-dog" dems, those conservative democrats in conservative districts. (I have one as my own congress-critter.) They are in a tough spot over the health-care issue.

In the senate, the only one I keep hearing about possibly being in trouble is Reid--I'm sure there are others the dems are concerned about.
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Old 09-11-2009, 09:14 AM
 
Location: Marion, IA
2,796 posts, read 5,701,651 times
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Any moderate, regardless of party, who votes for the health care bill might as well make plans with the moving trucks now.
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Old 09-11-2009, 09:25 AM
 
Location: North Beach, MD on the Chesapeake
36,634 posts, read 47,350,628 times
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Frank Kratovil from MD's 1st District (Eastern Shore and a bit of Anne Arundel County) barely won in 2008 and is considered endangered. That had been a Republicam seat for 9 terms since the previous Democratic Congressman had some "personal" issues as did the prior Republican holder of the seat.
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Old 09-11-2009, 05:48 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,858 posts, read 16,675,449 times
Reputation: 4315
Quote:
Originally Posted by North Beach Person View Post
Frank Kratovil from MD's 1st District (Eastern Shore and a bit of Anne Arundel County) barely won in 2008 and is considered endangered. That had been a Republicam seat for 9 terms since the previous Democratic Congressman had some "personal" issues as did the prior Republican holder of the seat.
I do agree that Kratovli might be endangered a bit. it is a very Republican district and he won a seat in which he really had no business winning in the first place. I disagree with you that it was lost for 'personal' issues last year, it was primarily lost because of the Club for Growth. Gilchrist didn't have any skeletons in his closet, wasn't involved in any scandals. However, what he had was a moderate voting record with the CFG among other conservative groups targeted him in the GOP Primary and he lost the Primary to the much more conservative Harris, who later lost narrowly to Kratovli. If the conservative groups didn't oust Gilchrist in the Primary, the seat would still be in Republican hands.

Now, this isn't directed at you, but towards other Republicans. So many of you have stated how the Dems are going down next year, going to lose a ton of seats, perhaps lose the majority. Yet, other than a couple of people giving a name or two, none of you have been able to give any real concrete examples of what seats the GOP will be able to pick up.
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Old 09-11-2009, 11:37 PM
 
8,283 posts, read 12,436,530 times
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overall the Dems have a 78 seat majority in the House and I seriously doubt that the Repubs can over take that disparity in 2010.
I don't expect the Senate to change too much.
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Old 09-12-2009, 12:45 PM
 
3,553 posts, read 7,219,139 times
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With a 78 seat majority in the House the Dems would need to lose 40 seats to lose the majority. I think 30 might be doable, but 40 is a bit of a stretch. After all the only people stupid enough to fall for the "contract for America" scam again are already living in R controlled districts. Granted there are some seats like the MD Eastern Shore seat above that only went D because the CFG knocked the "moderate" R out of the primary, but unless the moderates take control of the primary process again it's a toss-up on whether it stays D.

OTOH, for every seat that the moderate Rs can get back that way the hard right/CFG branch of the R party is going to help them lose a different one. Remember, if not for that bunch Arlen Specter would still be a Republican. Next thing you know they'll come after one of the ladies from ME, I think one is up next year, and another Senate seat will fall to the Ds.

I had a thread a few months ago on the 2010 Senate seats, maybe I'll "refresh" it and see where we stand. Just remember, it's been said a lot; "a week is a lifetime in politics".

golfgod
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Old 09-12-2009, 02:41 PM
 
Location: MD
98 posts, read 101,616 times
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I'm sure the Republicans will pick up a good amount of house seats and probably a couple senate seats. I don't think there will be a huge overthrow like some are predicting because the Democratic Party still has a higher approval rating than the Republican Party (not that either could be considered high approval ratings by any means.) Also, most individual congressman have pretty high approval ratings in their district, and these are the people voting for or against them. For example, you can guarantee Nancy Pelosi would only get about 10-20% of the vote if the whole country got to vote for her seat, but her constituents really like her. It's interesting how people are so dissatisfied with congress in general, but it's always other people's congressmen who are the problem, not their own.
That being said, we have seen sweeping changes like in 1994 and 2006. These tend to come as a result, however, of moderate democrats being elected to more conservative districts and moderate republicans being elected to more liberal districts. If it happens in 2010, it will come as a result of the moderate democrats in conservative districts losing their seats back to Republicans, as another user mentioned. They will certainly not take over the house though. Looking at the Senate, the Republicans appear to actually have a chance against Dodd in Connecticut. With Judd Gregg's retirement, I fully expect for the Dems to pick up a seat in NH. The Dems could also pick up Ohio and Missouri, though those are unlikely. The GOP could pick up Nevada or Arkansas, I'm not sure about those.
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Old 09-12-2009, 03:09 PM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,862 posts, read 15,508,162 times
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Harry Reid for one is having issues and may face a serious challenge. Wouldn't it be great for the Majority Leader to get knocked off?

I don't think the Republicans will take back either house of Congress, but if you just look at the averages in a mid-term election, the party not in power typically makes gains. I think in 2010 you will see larger than average gains for the Republicans, but probably not enough to regain a majority. The estimates that I have heard are around 25 seats in the House. If the Democrats cram a sham of a healthcare bill down the country's throat with no input from Republicans, it could be even more gains for Republicans. The US population is not behind the President or the Congressional Leadership on this healthcare fiasco. It could be 1994 all over again if the Dems aren't careful.

http://www.politicsdaily.com/2009/08...on-poll-shows/

http://www.lvrj.com/news/54286087.html
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