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There's one rural area in PA that tends to vote Democratic and it's the northeast part. Now the cities in that reason were always staunchly Democratic and in the rural parts it's because of a combination of high unionization (or nowadays at least union sympathies) and growing numbers of working class ex-New Yorkers moving into Monroe and Pike counties.
But I think the comparison with Illinois the OP made is an interesting one. A lot of people don't remember that IL was once very similar to the PA of the early 2000s as a urban vs. rural swing state. Most of us (including myself who wasn't born for a few more years, but I love to read history) don't remember that the in the close 1960 Kennedy-Nixon election, there were accusations of voting fraud in IL a la Florida 2000 and if the race were a little closer there but still in Kennedy's favor, he may have actually won the 1960 election while losing the popular vote a la Bush in 2000.
Barack Obama won Pennsylvania with a 11% margin. The same margin Senator McCain won Texas by. In '04 the margin was 2.5% and in '00 it was 4.2%
Is Pennsylvania becoming a Democratic state like Illinois where the get out the vote efforts in the major metros (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh) and surrounding areas overwhelm the Republican vote?
Obviously it is really early to start handicapping the next Presidential election but it is fun
PA is not a swing state unless it becomes overrun by West Virginians.
Focusing on the next election with Obama only 10 months into his first term shows that you are still having a titanic battle with those sour grapes.
There's one rural area in PA that tends to vote Democratic and it's the northeast part. Now the cities in that reason were always staunchly Democratic and in the rural parts it's because of a combination of high unionization (or nowadays at least union sympathies) and growing numbers of working class ex-New Yorkers moving into Monroe and Pike counties.
But I think the comparison with Illinois the OP made is an interesting one. A lot of people don't remember that IL was once very similar to the PA of the early 2000s as a urban vs. rural swing state. Most of us (including myself who wasn't born for a few more years, but I love to read history) don't remember that the in the close 1960 Kennedy-Nixon election, there were accusations of voting fraud in IL a la Florida 2000 and if the race were a little closer there but still in Kennedy's favor, he may have actually won the 1960 election while losing the popular vote a la Bush in 2000.
Good point, though I think in Monroe's case its more of the middle to upper-middle class ex New Yorker's rather than working class ex New Yorker's. Basically the group that transformed areas such as Long Island, and Westchester from GOP leaning to Dem leaning during the 90's.
In order for the GOP to get back PA they need to regain traction with educated middle to upper-middle class suburbanites. It will be very unlikely that anyone will be able to get them back into the GOP like they were, though perhaps Corbett might do well enough with them that he is able to hold the Dem advantages in SEPA to a level where he can make up for it in other portions of the state. That is something Toomey won't be able to do (he will et obliterated there) same with virtually any potential GOP Presidential candidate (especially Palin and Huckabee)
PA is not a swing state unless it becomes overrun by West Virginians.
Focusing on the next election with Obama only 10 months into his first term shows that you are still having a titanic battle with those sour grapes.
Obama a 2-term president and don't you forget it.
At this point I certainly hope he's a 2-term President Unless he starts to screw things up. It just seems like the past few election cycles the GOP has been saying "Pennsylvania! Yay!" then they lose it. Kind of like how the GOP says "New Jersey is up for grabs!" then two weeks later they pull all funding and move it to Florida.
Last edited by CityPerson09; 10-22-2009 at 10:44 AM..
I disagree that Pennsylvania is a swing state. Anything can happen between now and 2012, however, statistically PA is heavily Democratic.
Some time ago I compiled data on all 50 states, from voting records since 1994 (appropriately weighted), to the political parties of Representatives, Senators, and the governor, as well as Gallup data on how residents identify themselves.. These are the results:
States in purple are the biggest contenders for swing state status, while solid red or solid blue states scored enough points to keep them strong for their respective party. Lighter colored states, as well as the purple states are more likely to vote based on issues or the current political climate, as opposed to on a partisan basis.
States in purple are the biggest contenders for swing state status, while solid red or solid blue states scored enough points to keep them strong for their respective party. Lighter colored states, as well as the purple states are more likely to vote based on issues or the current political climate, as opposed to on a partisan basis.
Barack Obama won Pennsylvania with a 11% margin. The same margin Senator McCain won Texas by. In '04 the margin was 2.5% and in '00 it was 4.2%
Is Pennsylvania becoming a Democratic state like Illinois where the get out the vote efforts in the major metros (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh) and surrounding areas overwhelm the Republican vote?
Obviously it is really early to start handicapping the next Presidential election but it is fun
I agree that PA is definitely (D) leaning, but far from solid blue. In 2004, for example, W carried Indiana by more than 15%. I think it was around 17-18% and Obama carried it in 2008 (virtual tie), so that was an 18 (or so) point swing. If that's possible in Indiana, then it could be possible in PA in 2012. The (D) trend of the Philly suburbs hurts the GOP, that is true. However, I see Specter or Sestak losing to Toomey in 2010 Senate. At the end of the day, I like to think the better candidate has a chance (even though this is not always the case).
If you're speaking in reference to 2012, I don't think anyone should support Obama (except maybe trial lawyers and union leaders) as he is a complete and utter failure. In that sense, his opponent should be able to carry PA in the 2012 if he or she presents a clear alternative to Obama's Big Government agenda (which McCain did not). If the opponent is just (D) light, then Obama will win big in PA and nationwide.
I agree that PA is definitely (D) leaning, but far from solid blue. In 2004, for example, W carried Indiana by more than 15%. I think it was around 17-18% and Obama carried it in 2008 (virtual tie), so that was an 18 (or so) point swing. If that's possible in Indiana, then it could be possible in PA in 2012. The (D) trend of the Philly suburbs hurts the GOP, that is true. However, I see Specter or Sestak losing to Toomey in 2010 Senate. At the end of the day, I like to think the better candidate has a chance (even though this is not always the case).
If you're speaking in reference to 2012, I don't think anyone should support Obama (except maybe trial lawyers and union leaders) as he is a complete and utter failure. In that sense, his opponent should be able to carry PA in the 2012 if he or she presents a clear alternative to Obama's Big Government agenda (which McCain did not). If the opponent is just (D) light, then Obama will win big in PA and nationwide.
Toomey doesn't have much of a chance in PA. He is just WAYY to conservative for the state and will get stomped in suburban Philly.
A McCain type of Republican (circa the McCain of 2000) is the only type of Republican that would have a chance in PA. A key reason why he lost by as much as he did is his hard track right during the campaign (though he still would have lost PA easily anyway) The only Republican who could win PA is a moderate (and on the Presidential level even that might be hard) the Philly suburbs just make it impossible for a conservative to win. The margins will simply be too large there for that to happen.
Barack Obama won Pennsylvania with a 11% margin. The same margin Senator McCain won Texas by. In '04 the margin was 2.5% and in '00 it was 4.2%
Is Pennsylvania becoming a Democratic state like Illinois where the get out the vote efforts in the major metros (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh) and surrounding areas overwhelm the Republican vote?
Obviously it is really early to start handicapping the next Presidential election but it is fun
That was before Specter left the GOP. He left because hundreds of thousands of Suburban Republicans became Suburban Democrats
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