Toomey Leading Specter in Polls 45 percent to 31 percent (voters, Congress, thought)
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"'I'm running like I'm 20 points behind and I'll continue to run like I'm 20 points behind,' says Pat Toomey, the presumptive GOP nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania -- who in fact now leads Sen. Arlen Specter 45 percent to 31 percent among likely voters in the latest Frank & Marshall College poll."
Twenty four percent of those likely voters don't know who they will vote for. Trust me, when they realize Toomey is a Santorum clone, they'll figure it out.
And, of course, there are all those liberals who are hoping Specter won't be the Democratic candidate....
This appears o be some very odd likely voter sample. They are tied at 30 with a 35% undecided for registered voters. The undecideds look to be mind numbingly high.
This appears o be some very odd likely voter sample. They are tied at 30 with a 35% undecided for registered voters. The undecideds look to be mind numbingly high.
I think it might be a case of "you have to get the nomination first." A lot of polls, like the ones in Nevada match the incumbent with all possible opposition candidates in the other party, so if you are for Candidate C and they ask you who would you vote for Candidate A (R) vs Candidate B (D) in the general election, you are likely to say you are undecided for that pairing. In Pennsylvania, isn't there another Democrat running agaist Specter who was annoyed when he changed parties or am I confused about the state where that happened? Maybe that's who the Undecideds support. That other Democrat.
In 2008, since the Republican nominee was established first, there were probably some polls done for Clinton vs McCain and Obama vs McCain before the Democrat nominee was established. I'm thinking if the pollsters asked you about Obama vs McCain and you were a Clinton supporter, you might have been more likely to have said you were undecided for that McCain/Obama match-up because your candidate (Clinton) hadn't been eliminated yet.
I think it might be a case of "you have to get the nomination first." A lot of polls, like the ones in Nevada match the incumbent with all possible opposition candidates in the other party, so if you are for Candidate C and they ask you who would you vote for Candidate A (R) vs Candidate B (D) in the general election, you are likely to say you are undecided for that pairing. In Pennsylvania, isn't there another Democrat running agaist Specter who was annoyed when he changed parties or am I confused about the state where that happened? Maybe that's who the Undecideds support. That other Democrat.
In 2008, since the Republican nominee was established first, there were probably some polls done for Clinton vs McCain and Obama vs McCain before the Democrat nominee was established. I'm thinking if the pollsters asked you about Obama vs McCain and you were a Clinton supporter, you might have been more likely to have said you were undecided for that McCain/Obama match-up because your candidate (Clinton) hadn't been eliminated yet.
That's just a guess on why so many undecideds.
Yes, the Dems have another candidate. Congressman Joe Sestak who represents the 7th district in suburban Philly is challenging Specter in the Primary. Sestak is running to the left of Specter and was thought of as a likely Democratic candidate for the Senate seat prior to the Specter switch, and decided to stay in.
Specter will drop out once its clear he's going down to defeat. Right now I wouldn't be suprised if Ed Rendell doesn't step down as Governor and say he'll run in Specter's place at the last minute.
Specter will drop out once its clear he's going down to defeat. Right now I wouldn't be suprised if Ed Rendell doesn't step down as Governor and say he'll run in Specter's place at the last minute.
I doubt Rendell will jump in, but I don't think Specter will be the nominee. He will stay in, but Sestak knocks him off in the Primary.
"'I'm running like I'm 20 points behind and I'll continue to run like I'm 20 points behind,' says Pat Toomey, the presumptive GOP nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania -- who in fact now leads Sen. Arlen Specter 45 percent to 31 percent among likely voters in the latest Frank & Marshall College poll."
What a difference Washington can make in six months' time. Go Toomey!
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