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Old 05-09-2010, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,313 posts, read 41,394,403 times
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Another one of those - "this would be sweet to pick up", once safe seats for democrats.

washingtonpost.com

Quote:
This once safely Democratic district where Murtha reigned for 35 years is now a toss-up. Longtime Murtha aide Mark Critz, 48, vows to carry on his former boss's legacy, while Republican businessman Tim Burns, 42, tries to leverage anti-Washington passion by treating his opponent as an incumbent tied to the "liberal Pelosi-Obama agenda."
Quote:
Burns refers to Critz as "a career government bureaucrat" and contrasts that with his own background as a self-made entrepreneur who started a pharmaceutical technology company in his basement and sold it a few years ago for millions.
Sounds like a self-made successful man, who is NOT a career Washington insider.

Obama referendum, no doubt about it. His approval rating is 37%.
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Old 05-09-2010, 07:01 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,849 posts, read 16,636,828 times
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The district has been trending Republican for awhile. McCain actually narrowly won the district. the district is an example of what has been going on in PA. In western PA the GOP has made gains, in eastern PA especially suburban Philly the Dems have made gains. The problem for the GOP is western PA is stagnant and lsoing PA, meanwhile suburban Philly is gaining population.
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Old 05-09-2010, 10:23 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,313 posts, read 41,394,403 times
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Quote:
The district has been trending Republican for awhile.
Oh yeah, for 35 years Murtha has held the seat. Sounds republican to me.

County Results - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
State Election Results - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
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Old 05-10-2010, 12:07 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,849 posts, read 16,636,828 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Yes, Murtha has held the seat for 35 years, however it is a seat that has trended GOP over the years on the Presidential level. Gore won the district by 11 in 2000, McCain won it by 1 in 08. That happened even though Obama did better nationally and in the state than Gore did. Likewise the suburban Philly districts have trended the other direction. PA-6 for example was won narrowly by Gore in 2000, Obama demolished McCain there in 08 (winning it by 17). The district is part of Apalachia which ahs been trending Republican for some time. So it shouldn't be a surprise that now that its an open seat its a tight race.
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Old 05-10-2010, 07:43 AM
 
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
however it is a seat that has trended GOP over the years on the Presidential level.
Who won the seat in 2002? 2004? 2006?

Pure nonsense.
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Old 05-10-2010, 02:00 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,849 posts, read 16,636,828 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Who won the seat in 2002? 2004? 2006?

Pure nonsense.
Yes, Murtha won the seat then, It doesn't mean the district wasn't trending Republican. Murtha's incumbency was a key reason on why he was winning the last few years. The district is not the same district it was for most of the time Murtha held the seat, its more Republican, hell despite losing nationally by more than 7 points, McCain won the district by one point. Just because a district has a long term Democratic incumbent or just because a district has a long term Republican incumbent does not always mean its a Democratic or Republican district.

Would it be a good story for the GOP to say they picked up a seat held for the Democrats for 35 years? Yes, but reality is if they win they really are only picking up an open seat in a district that is fairly marginal and was actually won by McCain despite him losing by 7 nationally.

Chris Shays won CT-4 in 02,04, and 06 are you going to suggest that was a Republican seat??
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:25 PM
 
Location: North Beach, MD on the Chesapeake
36,561 posts, read 47,179,124 times
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Murtha's predecessor was Republican John Saylor, who also died in office (he'd held the seat since 1949). Murtha kept being re-elected because he did what a Congressman is supposed to do-bring money and projects back to his district.
Not touching on the ethics issues that Murtha developed starting in the late 80s and which dogged him until he died, but he was a good Congressman for his district.
I grew up in the immediately to the NW district.
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Old 05-10-2010, 06:59 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,313 posts, read 41,394,403 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
Yes, Murtha won the seat then, It doesn't mean the district wasn't trending Republican. Murtha's incumbency was a key reason on why he was winning the last few years. The district is not the same district it was for most of the time Murtha held the seat, its more Republican, hell despite losing nationally by more than 7 points, McCain won the district by one point. Just because a district has a long term Democratic incumbent or just because a district has a long term Republican incumbent does not always mean its a Democratic or Republican district.

Would it be a good story for the GOP to say they picked up a seat held for the Democrats for 35 years? Yes, but reality is if they win they really are only picking up an open seat in a district that is fairly marginal and was actually won by McCain despite him losing by 7 nationally.

Chris Shays won CT-4 in 02,04, and 06 are you going to suggest that was a Republican seat??
Surely, you must know there are DOZENS of seats currently occupied by Blue Dog democrats, in districts that McCain won.

If not for the death of that corrupt dung murtha, the republicans would not have the opportunity to pick it off.

I believe I read just recently that PA has almost 3-1 registered democrats vs republicans - now, I know you'd like to pretend that a GOP pickup here is no big deal, purely predictable, expected, yada, yada, yada, but the FACTS really are against you.

It will be a tough slog for ANY GOP candidate.
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Old 05-10-2010, 07:09 PM
 
Location: SARASOTA, FLORIDA
11,501 posts, read 14,032,027 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Who won the seat in 2002? 2004? 2006?

Pure nonsense.

The left wingers will be making all kinds of excuses when they lose seats all over the place.

Obama will be the reason for many of them losing seats they have held for reasons but the left wont accept the fact the Obama is killing the dems and liberalism in America.

Obama is a gift that keeps on giving.

Sanrene, do not forget that the trader Jack Murtha never apologized to our heros for lying and being wrong like most dems are when he accused them of killing innocent people. And of course you did not see one dem hold him accountable for his stab in the back to our military heros either.

It would be a great pickup for the REP because Murtha had been stealing a paycheck from his state and doing dirty backroom deals for years. Maybe now we can get someone who wont be stealing from their people.

Dont let the left wingers fool you, they know they are in deep poo because the massive failures of the Obama administration but they wont admit it.

Thank you Obama for being such an epic FAILURE and destroying liberalism once and for all in America!

He will be remembered as the man who took down an entire party in only one short year.
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Old 05-10-2010, 09:50 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
19,849 posts, read 16,636,828 times
Reputation: 4309
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Surely, you must know there are DOZENS of seats currently occupied by Blue Dog democrats, in districts that McCain won.

If not for the death of that corrupt dung murtha, the republicans would not have the opportunity to pick it off.

I believe I read just recently that PA has almost 3-1 registered democrats vs republicans - now, I know you'd like to pretend that a GOP pickup here is no big deal, purely predictable, expected, yada, yada, yada, but the FACTS really are against you.

It will be a tough slog for ANY GOP candidate.
Yes, the GOP wouldn't have much of a chance of picking up this seat if Murtha didn't pass away. However, that dos not mean the district hasn't trended Republican. This seat being competitive has much more to do with the changing political landscape of Pennsylvania (western PA trending GOP, eastern PA trending Democratic) than anything Obama or anything else.
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