Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The Dems will probably lose 20-25 seats. There is no reason to expect the bloodbath that the Republicans would need to carry the House. The Dems were at their most vulnerable after the health care bill passed; unless Iran detonates a nuclear bomb or something wild like that happens, the Dems' fortunes aren't going anywhere but up.
I think the average change is around 20 seats. Anything more than 30 will be a clear victory for the Repubs...
The Dems at 228-230,with some 40 Blue Dogs ,will be almost toothless...
Because of the hold the Democrats have now it only makes sense the Republicans will pick up a large number of seats. If the feeling is oust the imcumbants wouldn't that be the logical change plus independents, at this point, are more inclined to vote Republican. Of course, as we have always said, even 5 months can make a huge difference.
Nita
Agreed. I don't think anyone is arguing that the GOP won't pick up seats. However, I don't see any real chance of the 39 seat gain in order to take control of the House. I know you said you think they will fall just short, but I don't think the GOP will honestly get all that close. 20-25 seat pickup is the range I think it will be. Keep in mind that its not like the Dems hold a ton of seats in conservative or GOP leaning districts. They have some, but not enough to make up tremendous ground. Some people mistakenly believe that a good chunk of the Dems pickups in 06 and 08 were those Blue Dog or GOP type leaning districts. That really is not the case. Granted some were, but the majority of the seats the Dems won then are like CO-7, CT-2, CT-4, CT-5, NY-25, VA-11, basically Democratic leaning seats that the GOP were lucky to hold on for as long as they did (mostly though long term Incumbency). They don't have a chance in hell of winning those seats back.
Also keep in mind that we are talking about a net gain. The GOP is going to lose some seats. Its unlikely to be all that many, but if the GOP picks up something like 30-32 Democratic seats the gain won't be 30-32. You have Cao who is extremely vulnerable in LA-2 (only reason he even won is due to Jeferson being corrupt as all hell). You have Castle and Kirk running for the Senate, both representing Dem leaning districts that will now be open, and I'm sure some GOP incumbents other than Cao will go down. So in oder to counter the few seats they will lose in order for the GOP to actually take the House they will likely need to pick up 42-45 seats, somewhere in the 37-40 range to get close, I just don't see that happening.
I think taking the Senate is pretty much impossible. They need to pick up TEN seats to do that since Joe Biden can break a 50/50 tie.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
