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I have never heard a convincing argument for why Mandarin would be poised to become an international lingua franca. It has impressive numbers of speakers, but comparatively little international influence nor the traits that make it accessible to non-native speakers.
As for Spanish in the US, I think it will decrease as a first language, but increase as a second language, even among groups with no Spanish heritage, over the next few decades, i.e. it will become useful, but not necessary, even in areas with high levels of immigration or traditional Spanish speaking populations.
Illegal immigration form Mexico has been falling, and I expect that trend to continue. The economy of Mexico could chnage, but birth rate trends aren't the sort of thing to swing unpredictably.
Even if half of Mexico migrated into the US, English would still be the predominant language of the US, and that would be unchallenged.
Do you disagree with this assumption?
I do believe English will maintain its status as the primary language, but the U.S is becoming a bilingual country like Switzerland. The population of Spanish speakers in the U.S is only slightly smaller than Spain, and the number is going up.
I do believe English will maintain its status as the primary language, but the U.S is becoming a bilingual country like Switzerland. The population of Spanish speakers in the U.S is only slightly smaller than Spain, and the number is going up.
I don't think Switzerland is a good comparison. The most spoken first language there is German, and that is only spoken by 63% of the population. There is no commonly agreed universal language for people to use, so they often learn two or three separate languages.
The US already has the convenience of an established language that is spoken by 96% of the population, Spanish is way behind on 16%, and its growth is fueled almost entirely by immigration from Spanish-speaking countries, which is gradually falling. German was once in a similar position in America, and German speakers were actually slower to adopt English than Spanish speakers are in 2017. Yet German is now a very small minority language within the US.
The problem is that there are many incentives for Spanish speakers in the US to learn English, it's practically a requirement to live a fulfilling life in America. But where are the incentives for English speakers to learn Spanish? I'm sure you don't need reminding, English speakers are notoriously stubborn when it comes to learning new languages, so the reasons have to be good.
I don't think Switzerland is a good comparison. The most spoken first language there is German, and that is only spoken by 63% of the population. There is no commonly agreed universal language for people to use, so they often learn two or three separate languages.
The US already has the convenience of an established language that is spoken by 96% of the population, Spanish is way behind on 16%, and its growth is fueled almost entirely by immigration from Spanish-speaking countries, which is gradually falling. German was once in a similar position in America, and German speakers were actually slower to adopt English than Spanish speakers are in 2017. Yet German is now a very small minority language within the US.
The problem is that there are many incentives for Spanish speakers in the US to learn English, it's practically a requirement to live a fulfilling life in America. But where are the incentives for English speakers to learn Spanish? I'm sure you don't need reminding, English speakers are notoriously stubborn when it comes to learning new languages, so the reasons have to be good.
Nobody wants to learn a foreign language, not only native English speakers.
Have you never been to mainland Europe? Speaking 4/5 languages is very common.
The overwhelming majority of Spanish-speaking immigrants in the US also want to learn English.
I'd put that number closer to 3.
English, language of the host nation and in many cases the language of the country they (or their parents) migrated from.
If we are talking about truly speaking the language.
I do believe English will maintain its status as the primary language, but the U.S is becoming a bilingual country like Switzerland. The population of Spanish speakers in the U.S is only slightly smaller than Spain, and the number is going up.
Switzerland is not a bilingual country...
Plus, US's bilingualism mostly lies in first or second generation Hispanics speaking English. Very few anglophones speak Spanish fluently. So this is really what full biligualism means.
Have you never been to mainland Europe? Speaking 4/5 languages is very common.
The overwhelming majority of Spanish-speaking immigrants in the US also want to learn English.
sounds like you haven't been to Europe.
Speaking 4-5 languages is by no means very common. It is extremely rare, and mostly applies to people with a native language that is of very limited use outside their own country. In Europe, even English is hardly that popular outside large cities and tourist destinations.
Do most Italians speak French? No way. Germans speaking Spanish? You wish. Even in Switzerland, most Francophones don't speak German, one of their official languages.
I live in a very diverse, highly educated French university town. You would be hard pressed to find someone who speaks more than 3 languages, and usually these people are NOT French but those from elsewhere. So they speak their own language, English, plus the French the learned in France. One of the Germany professors speak fluent English and French in addition to German. Another speak English, French and Portugese because he is from Brazil. Another American-turkish professor speaks English, Turkish and French, and maybe limited German.
The fact that Europeans seem to speak more languages is due to two reasons
1) due to how language is defined. We all know Spanish, Italian and Portugese are really similar and take far less effort to learn than if you learn a completely different language. Yeah, a dutch can speak German and English, big deal. It is not that different from a Chinese speaking various "dialects" or a Kenyan speaking various local languages.
2) it is more salient because European languages are more popular than non-European ones.
If you see someone who claims to speak more than 3, 4 or 5 languages, 95% of the chances those include primarily romance languages that are very similar to each other to start with. For example, French and Italian share 90% of the vocabulary from the same root.
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