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under Silvio we performed the worst in the world
between 2001 and 2008 I believe we've been the only country in the world to experience a net zero growth
that's why Berlusca wasn't a real liberal pro-entrepreneur politicians but instead a feudal-croony-capitalist who don't like free market and competition, that's the reality
the only time he cancelled a tax were the taxes on property (2008) and inheritances (2005), not taxes on those who work and produce
he did not privatize anything, he did not merge the thousands of thousands of small companies owned by local authorities, he even did not stop immigration but far from that he gave the amnesty to some 700k africans, slavs and arabs
he didn't reform the Constitution in a more modern way
didn't give a **** about civil rights
didn't reform the welfare system to make it more right, universalistic and modern
etc etc
the worst we could experience
in fact after the win in 2001 his party begun to lose on and on
the local elections in 2003
the European elections in 2004
and then the massive know out in the Regional ones of 2005
the great win of 2008 was the last chant of the swan, due to more of a fault of Romano Prodi's cabinet
he went from having a 38% support in 2008 to a ridicule 10+something now
under Silvio we performed the worst in the world
between 2001 and 2008 I believe we've been the only country in the world to experience a net zero growth
that's why Berlusca wasn't a real liberal pro-entrepreneur politicians but instead a feudal-croony-capitalist who don't like free market and competition, that's the reality
the only time he cancelled a tax were the taxes on property (2008) and inheritances (2005), not taxes on those who work and produce
he did not privatize anything, he did not merge the thousands of thousands of small companies owned by local authorities, he even did not stop immigration but far from that he gave the amnesty to some 700k africans, slavs and arabs
he didn't reform the Constitution in a more modern way
didn't give a **** about civil rights
didn't reform the welfare system to make it more right, universalistic and modern
etc etc
the worst we could experience
in fact after the win in 2001 his party begun to lose on and on
the local elections in 2003
the European elections in 2004
and then the massive know out in the Regional ones of 2005
the great win of 2008 was the last chant of the swan, due to more of a fault of Romano Prodi's cabinet
he went from having a 38% support in 2008 to a ridicule 10+something now
and it's still too much inmho
But he is trying to restore power right??
Italy will be a big boy again
He is upping the ante!!
Italy will be head to head with France and Germany
The head of the government (which i'm not even a fan of, he's too much of a catch all politician for my liking) we didn't elect has done much more in a year or so to improve the economic system than its precedessors have done in 20 or so years. The average middle aged Italian men is disillusioned with politics and rightly but those who are in the 20s show as much interest as the old generations. Most of the rise of Five Star Movement has been led by these young generations
oh yeah, I'm not denying Renzi is miles better than the old creepy man, but then again it's like comparing Obama to Bush 2.0.
And I admit there are many young people interested in politics, most of my friends are, the thing is their voices are hardly heard (yet).
Italy will be head to head with France and Germany
It's a power game in EU.
No, Berlusconi is looking old and frail, his party is trailing in the polls, now a relatively minor party, his era is all but over.
Actually the current government is lately giving the appearance of standing up to the EU commission, pushing for budget flexibility to enact some modest labor tax cuts. They even delayed extension of sanctions against Russia, but eventually caved in.
A 1% growth rate in 2016 could be considered a major positive achievement this year.
No, Berlusconi is looking old and frail, his party is trailing in the polls, now a relatively minor party, his era is all but over.
Actually the current government is lately giving the appearance of standing up to the EU commission, pushing for budget flexibility to enact some modest labor tax cuts. They even delayed extension of sanctions against Russia, but eventually caved in.
A 1% growth rate in 2016 could be considered a major positive achievement this year.
Since 2009, Italy's economy has shrank accumulatively by some large percentage, don't have the data on hand right now, but in the tens of percent, perhaps as much as 25%, in recession around four or five of the past seven years.
So even 1% growth, which would be a significant achievement in 2016, would be off a much reduced base.
For Italy to grow 2%, the economies of its major trading partners would have to grow some 3%-4% at least.
But the balance of risk is on the downside even for the 1% forecast as the rest of the world is teetering on recession right now.
From the perspective of the English-speaking world, Mr. Renzi is somewhat reminiscent of Tony Blair, but only a very tiny chance that he will be anywhere near as successful.
Since 2009, Italy's economy has shrank accumulatively by some large percentage, don't have the data on hand right now, but in the tens of percent, perhaps as much as 25%, in recession around four or five of the past seven years.
So even 1% growth, which would be a significant achievement in 2016, would be off a much reduced base.
For Italy to grow 2%, the economies of its major trading partners would have to grow some 3%-4% at least.
But the balance of risk is on the downside even for the 1% forecast as the rest of the world is teetering on recession right now.
From the perspective of the English-speaking world, Mr. Renzi is somewhat reminiscent of Tony Blair, but only a very tiny chance that he will be anywhere near as successful.
I can tell what we're NOT looking at: a country with a lot of economic dynamism that can hold the attention of ambitious young people.
The next election comes due in February 2018, so in two years, but early election is always a possibility. My best guess is the some time between April and September of 2017, but it could be at anytime if there is a crisis.
Current polls suggest Renzi's party and this so-called Movimento Cinque Stelle are neck and neck, with a slight edge to Renzi's party.
Who will win? Who knows? Two years is a long time in electoral politics.
It could even be a long time in economics: while 2016 could be a recessionary year globally, dragging down Italy with it, again, 2017 could be a year of recovery, just in time for new elections on an uptick.
If there is a major crisis that the political parties of the day cannot solve, the stock solution in Italy is a so-called "technical" government, usually a banker or economics professor, like Lamberto Dini, Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, or Mario Monti, generally to raise taxes, politically unpopular but railroaded through under the guise of economic necessity. Wash rinse repeat every decade or so.
But this time it's different, this time it's different, this time it's different!
oh yeah, I'm not denying Renzi is miles better than the old creepy man, but then again it's like comparing Obama to Bush 2.0.
And I admit there are many young people interested in politics, most of my friends are, the thing is their voices are hardly heard (yet).
That's an apt comparison but i swear that Prodi and Renzi were the only half decent presidents we had since Moro's assassination. That's true that voices of the young people are hardly ever heard, this is why antiestablishment parties such as M5S and Lega Nord (when it first was a catch all secessionist party) were born
It will be hard for Renzi to win, the electoral law that's about to pass actually puts him at a disadvantage. His party usually polls as the most popular but far left wing Five Star Movement isn't far behind (32% vs 27%) and it's actually polled to narrowly win at the ballot.
The next election should be in February 2018. Much depends on how Italy performs economically in the next couple years. If it posts a growth of more than 1% and the economy shows further signs of improving he has a really good shot but in Italian politics you never know
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