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I don't really know what to think about that. The reform was not really a good thing because it would have given too much power to the leader in a system where the leader is not directly elected, which is a dangerous thing.
I don't see why he should leave though, as someone said, it's not like there are many better alternatives at the moment.
Just because Fillon wants to cut government jobs, raise retirement age and talk with Putin, all reasonable policies, people think it is the end of the world.
The thing is that Europeans for so long assume they can remain rich for not doing much any more. They think they can keep reducing their work hours, reduce the retirement age, increase benefits and protection, without being increasingly more productive. For many, even the idea of increasing working hours from 35 to 39 is "neo-liberal evil". No, they can't. Nobody can. At some point the balance will tip over and the economy stops supporting the lifestyle.
I am not surprised in 30, 40 years, some western European countries may end up accepting they are no longer rich and developed countries any more. They will know just by making some cheese and wine and olive oil one is not able to maintain a wealthy lifestyle for long, especially other people are working their a$$ off.
I read an article forecast people will be so much more miserable just because now they have to work 39 hours a week. Yea, what tragedy. Just look at the Chinese, Japanese and Korea and one would know 39 hours is nothing. Of course you can say "we don't want to work like slave", true, but keep in mind that you don't get to live like kings either.
Last edited by botticelli; 12-05-2016 at 03:58 AM..
Well, most of my friends in France are hardly rich, and I could say the same about my friends here.
Also Fillon also wants to cut the ISF, which is mostly gonna make rich people even richer than they are while not having any benefit for the rest of the population. Not quite the end of the world, sure, but nothing to be excited about, really.
- Renzi actually intended to resign immediately, but the President of the Republic Mattarella don't want him to (not immediately, at least). Right now they talk about "frozen resignation". In practice the parliament has to approve an important law about economy issues before Renzi can leave, and then the President of the Republic will probably choose his successor. They claim that they will manage to do this before the end of the week, we will see if this will be true...
After this, I have no idea about what will happen.
Spoiler
If you are wondering why it depends on the President of the Republic, I would like to summarize you our system:
- the voters elects the parliamentarians (we have two parliament chambers, the "Senate" and the "Chamber of Deputies")
- every 7 years, the Parliaments (both chambers) choose a new President of the Republic
- the President of the Republic choose the head of the Government, the President of the council. In a normal situation he does it just after the election, choosing a person who is supported by the parliament.
Then, if the President of the Council resigns (sadly it happens quite often), the President of the Republic can:
- choose a new President of the Council, that has to obtain the support of the Parliament.
- dissolute the Parliament and call new elections.
Some random statistics:
- The percentage of people that participated is really high, 68.5%.
- The No won in the most of the country. Anyway, it won by the largest margin in Southern Italy, and in particular in the Islands (Sardinia and Sicily, where the No was above the 70% of the voters). The yes won, by a low margin, only in few areas of Northern-Central Italy (in particularly the area between Emilia and Tuscany is known for supporting Renzi's party, so it is not so surprising)
Here there is a map: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...28Italy%29.png
- The no prevailed in the areas with low income and high unemployment rates. The votes doesn't seem much affected by the foreign population of the single regions instead. To me it doesn't look like the immigration issue & similar stuffs had an important role into this referendum.
- People with any degree of education voted for both yes and no (more people for the no, evidently). Actually, the education level didn't play a significant role for the final result.
- Young people voted mostly "No" (considering the range of ages 18-34 the percentage for the "No" was 81%!). Only above 55 years old people where overall for the yes side, with a percentage of "yes" in this age range of 53%.
- The supported political party played an important role instead. Practically only Renzi's party was for the "Yes", all the other were for the "No" instead. So the supporters of the PD (Renzi) are the only ones who, overall, gave more votes to the "yes" than to the "no".
I would still like to underline that the referendum was not about about European Union at all, and it wasn't about Economics either. The question was about a proposal for deep changes in the organization of the Parliament and the distribution of roles among State and Regions.
For the ones who says that "populism and anti-establishment won", I would like to underline that, in my opinion, both sides used quite populistic tones during the pre-referendum period.
For example, this one is one of the poster used by Renzi and co for supporting the Yes front: http://www.wilditaly.net/wp-content/...n-si%CC%80.jpg
It says: "Do you want to reduce the number of politicians? A yes is enough!".
This is one of the five star movement poster for the "no" instead. The most of the "no" posters I saw around were made by them. http://www.unita.tv/wp-content/uploa...us-623x515.jpg
It says: "from citizens to little lambs. I say no" And, in little below it: "Answer back to this fraud that is hiding the dangers of the reform".
In my opinion the propaganda has been ridiculous on both sides...
I agree that this was purely a domestic political issue.
The main problem is that it never should have been raised: Italy's Constitution is not broke, why fix it?
Italy's economy is broke, and they hardly raise the issue, never with any significant degree of competence and certainly without boldness.
They have to pass the 2017 Budget by December 31st.
My best guess is that Renzi will linger on until some point in 2017, perhaps late in 2017, maybe after a new general election is called, which must occur anyway by February 2018, new electoral law or not, which would be another attempt to fix something that is not broken, another waste of time and resources.
If sooner, it will because they have to raise taxes, again, to fill budget holes, and for that a technocratic government would be necessary.
It's been the same thing periodically over and over and over and over again for the past 25 years or so.
The problem with many European countries such as Italy is that they can no longer afford a rich country lifestyle, but they refuse to accept the fact, and therefore no reform can be successful. You can't expect to work short hours (like 35 a week), have low productivity, not create much important and competitive for the world, and at the same time have all the welfare and benefits and wealth and a comfortable life.
Many Europeans become too used to being "developed countries" and are selfishly reject sacrificed to cope with cold hard reality. I am not surprised in 3 decades Italy is no longer considered a high income country.
Here people in France get upset about Fillon's 39 working hour plan. Seriously? Since when 39 hours a week is too much?? You can certainly choose to work less but you have to accept a lower standard of living, something they don't want to give up either.
The reality here is mostly people having short term contracts and low wages. Also, in Italy there is no minimum salary and in many cases people need to emigrate to enjoy better conditions. For example elementary school teachers barely make 1000 euros a month after 5 years of studies and an exam. Conversely, the salary in Germany is much higher for the same job, yet nobody blames Germany for not being competitive and refuse the reality.
Don't get me wrong, I understand something needs to be fixed, but I would not describe the life of most people I know as people getting paid for nothing. I have however met people who worked for free, expecting a pay that never came from people who exploited them.
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