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You are giving too much credit to the average person. If you truly mean 100 random people, I'll bet less than 10 could run a mile without stopping. I'll take it one step further, I'll bet if you take 100 random high school students, less than 10 could run a mile under 7 minutes.
I feel pretty confident about these assertions after watching HS students in gym class attempt to run a mile and years ago going through Army Airborne training.
Chemistry_Guy,
You are hanging out with serious runners who do not represent average people. I've run 200 races over the past 20 years and the people you describe are not average runners in those races. Something to think about: The Pittsburgh Great Race is a 10K that is the largest race in the Pittsburgh area. Last year's median runner of 3787 finishers, ran a 54:34, which is an 8:47/mile [SIZE=2]pace. This is an predominately downhill race with a net 500 foot elevation drop. Runner's World Race Times Predictor calculator predicts a mile time of 7:52 based on this 10K performance.[/SIZE]
So the median race performance of over 3,787 somewhat serious male runners, who are serious enough to train for a 10K and pay the $30 registration fee, running on a mostly downhill course, does not come close to approaching a sub 6 minute mile time.
Here is another one, the Brentwood Firecracker 5K last year in a suburb of Pittsburgh had 2026 total finishers, with 1067 male finishers and 959 female finishers. This is a flat out and back course. They don't have the stats by sex, but looking at the median overall finisher, the time was 29:56 for a 9:39/mile pace. The Runner's World Race Times Predictor predicts a 9:00 mile time based on this result.
My thoughts are that some men under under 30 who weight less than 150 lbs. are capable of running a sub 6 minute mile with about a year of serious training including weekly intervals.
This is probably a reasonable analysis for the general public- the people Chemistry guy and I are thinking of have been training for some period of time, and probably have some degree of natural ability. Those participating in large public running events include all types from serious competitive runners through hobby joggers to those simply raising funds for charity.
Not all those who enter this type of event are runners.
I think the confusion is that when I say someone "can" run a 6 minute mile I am referring to their potential, not the probability that they are interested in training. Obviously people that live a sedentary lifestyle aren't going to be running fast times at all. Still, I have been a part of running clubs that accepted everyone, and generally men that stick with a training regimen are running well below 7 minute mile pace for a 5K after a season of running, even when they started running 11 minute pace. I don't think that genetic limitations really come into play until you are well under a 5 minute mile or its equivalent in another distance.
I know that my circle of runner friends (and especially not my family, as I have 2 cousins that are marathon winners) are not typical of the population as a whole. However, there are quite a few very fast people out there that are just regular men and women who decided to train hard.
I am actually concerned that so many people are running marathons, as I don't think that distance is really optimal for the health of most individuals. I really wish that more people would focus their training on running the 800m or 5K faster rather than simply completing a marathon. To me, marathon training is more difficult and more stressful on the body than the training necessary to run a 6 minute mile, or a 2:25 800 m, yet hundreds of thousands of people train for marathons every year. As a result, the focus at my running club is marathons and half marathons, multiple hour slow plodding training runs rather than the interval work that really builds strength and speed.
I think the social status of running a marathon trumps the health benefit of interval training and middle distance for most adults, and I think that is a shame. The reason I became so interested in this thread is that I would love to see the "mile time" achieve a similar social status as the marathon. Maybe we could see bumper stickers reading "sub 5" rather than the ubiquitous "26.2" that seems to be on every Subaru in town.
I think the confusion is that when I say someone "can" run a 6 minute mile I am referring to their potential, not the probability that they are interested in training. Obviously people that live a sedentary lifestyle aren't going to be running fast times at all. Still, I have been a part of running clubs that accepted everyone, and generally men that stick with a training regimen are running well below 7 minute mile pace for a 5K after a season of running, even when they started running 11 minute pace. I don't think that genetic limitations really come into play until you are well under a 5 minute mile or its equivalent in another distance.
I tend to agree with you that the genetic factor doesn't really come into play until your essentially at an elite level. It's been hard for me to follow all your detail's though since I essentially have to subtract at least a minute off of everything to account for the altitude I was at. I struggle to run one 8:30 mile here and just ran a 6:30 easily at sea level, so maybe it's even more than that, but wither way it's hard for me to grok your numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chemistry_Guy
I think the social status of running a marathon trumps the health benefit of interval training and middle distance for most adults, and I think that is a shame. The reason I became so interested in this thread is that I would love to see the "mile time" achieve a similar social status as the marathon. Maybe we could see bumper stickers reading "sub 5" rather than the ubiquitous "26.2" that seems to be on every Subaru in town.
I ran a couple marathons and never experienced any kind of elevated social status after it. On the contrary, I felt there was nothing particularly special about the feat anymore so I stopped doing them and did what I enjoyed more which is shorter distances in x-training. Some people just like bumper stickers (I don't, although I do own 2 subarus) and put on there whatever is currently popular and available. Not many people have the drive or the means to print their own 'sub-5' sticker or whatever, but if someone starts printing them and people get what they mean then we'll probably start seeing them. Unlikely though since few people have that as a goal. Trends shift over time so we'll see, but it's a lot easier for us 40+ folks to get an edge in distance than speed, compared to younger folks.
Tell me about it! My in-laws own a place up in Leadville, the highest incorporated city in the United States at over 10,000 ft. I lived in Monterey, CA for a while (sea level) and was visiting Colorado one fine summer. I went for just a short run, about 2 miles. Just...wow! It really does make a difference.
The people who run the Leadville 100 simply amaze me!
My son has run a 100 miler but close to sea level, I cannot imagine trying to do that between 9,000 and 12,000 feet.
That just means that we are really out of shape as a country if that is true. I am on a first name basis with a hundred or so fellow distance runners that run below 4:30 miles (adjusted 1500 or 1600 m, no one runs the mile anymore), but my circles are clearly not typical as I have been involved in distance running and coaching for almost 20 years.
Just about any man with a healthy body weight can run a sub 6 minute mile with a little training. While you are probably right that someone who has never run distance before is not likely to run sub 5 unless they are a truly gifted athlete, 6 minutes is really quite slow for someone who is working at getting faster.
The 5-minute mile takes a lot of talent. Also proper dieting and proper workout regimen (interval training, weights, tempo runs). I ate a lot of fast food in high school and did not weight train. 5:30 was slow on my team. A lot of guys broke 5 minutes.
I think the confusion is that when I say someone "can" run a 6 minute mile I am referring to their potential, not the probability that they are interested in training. Obviously people that live a sedentary lifestyle aren't going to be running fast times at all. Still, I have been a part of running clubs that accepted everyone, and generally men that stick with a training regimen are running well below 7 minute mile pace for a 5K after a season of running, even when they started running 11 minute pace. I don't think that genetic limitations really come into play until you are well under a 5 minute mile or its equivalent in another distance.
I know that my circle of runner friends (and especially not my family, as I have 2 cousins that are marathon winners) are not typical of the population as a whole. However, there are quite a few very fast people out there that are just regular men and women who decided to train hard.
I am actually concerned that so many people are running marathons, as I don't think that distance is really optimal for the health of most individuals. I really wish that more people would focus their training on running the 800m or 5K faster rather than simply completing a marathon. To me, marathon training is more difficult and more stressful on the body than the training necessary to run a 6 minute mile, or a 2:25 800 m, yet hundreds of thousands of people train for marathons every year. As a result, the focus at my running club is marathons and half marathons, multiple hour slow plodding training runs rather than the interval work that really builds strength and speed.
I think the social status of running a marathon trumps the health benefit of interval training and middle distance for most adults, and I think that is a shame. The reason I became so interested in this thread is that I would love to see the "mile time" achieve a similar social status as the marathon. Maybe we could see bumper stickers reading "sub 5" rather than the ubiquitous "26.2" that seems to be on every Subaru in town.
The mile or the 1500M carry an aura because they are hard distances to excel in - the speed combined with the endurance. The marathon really messes up your knees. It's such a grind and speed hardly comes into play unless you are elite.
The people who run the Leadville 100 simply amaze me!
My son has run a 100 miler but close to sea level, I cannot imagine trying to do that between 9,000 and 12,000 feet.
Realize that most of them are running a lot slower though. Not to say that it's easy by any means, but of course it's not at sea level either.
Are you a runner???? Running a mile as hard as you can out of the blue is not an easy thing to do because you are not trained for it. So is 7:11 unconditioned, trained? how much do you run?
Realize that most of them are running a lot slower though. Not to say that it's easy by any means, but of course it's not at sea level either.
Otterpods, have you ever run the Colorado Outward Bound Relay? It's usually in early September. It's 170 miles from Idaho Springs to Glennwood Springs. Elevation ranges from 8500 feet to higher than 12000 for a couple runners on the team. It's a 10 person team and each runner runs three separate legs. It is probably the most fun I've ever had in a race.
Otterpods, have you ever run the Colorado Outward Bound Relay? It's usually in early September. It's 170 miles from Idaho Springs to Glennwood Springs. Elevation ranges from 8500 feet to higher than 12000 for a couple runners on the team. It's a 10 person team and each runner runs three separate legs. It is probably the most fun I've ever had in a race.
No, super long races aren't my thing, and I prefer running as a solo activity. It sounds like fun if I were into that sort of thing though.
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