Why is crime high in Fairbanks? (Funny River: school, university, live)

[User 2]

Originally Posted by RayinAK

.

If you look at the per-capita data, then it's possible to have more crimes committed in Fairbanks alone than in Colorado.

That doesn't sound good,

...maybe icthy should maybe move to Colorado?


Ray, per-capita crime stats are measured in order to adjust for different sizes of population.

They represent X number of crimes per every 100 hundred persons.

They are formulated the way they are, specifically so that you can draw accurate comparisons between places with different sized populations.


If your not happy with the odds as they figure the odds, you don't look for a way to refigure them to make them appear better so you can ignore them, .....at least I don't.

Ignoring the odds is a bad way to place a bet.

[siamiam]

just live here and see

[RayinAK]

Originally Posted by User 2

That doesn't sound good,

...maybe icthy should maybe move to Colorado?


Ray, per-capita crime stats are measured in order to adjust for different sizes of population.

They represent X number of crimes per every 100 hundred persons.

They are formulated the way they are, specifically so that you can draw accurate comparisons between places with different sized populations.


If your not happy with the odds as they figure the odds, you don't look for a way to refigure them to make them appear better so you can ignore them, .....at least I don't.

Ignoring the odds is a bad way to place a bet.

The per-capita data uses a figure of 100,000 inhabitants as base, not 100. If you look at the data for all the towns and cities of AK, the crime rate in Juneau is just as high if not higher than the crime rate in Fairbanks. Again, forget about the per-capita number, and add the total crimes committed in each town or city of AK, and match the numbers to each other. Go ahead and add each one, and then tell me how there is less crime committed in a larger town than a small town in Alaska.

Take a look at the rate of murder per State in the year 2006 (100,000 inhabitants as base). Can you see how SOME States that have a huge population can have lower murder rates than Alaska?
Murder Rates 1996 - 2006

[User 2]

Ray,

I refuse to believe you are unable to see that X per 100 can be expressed as X per 100,000 and still be valid.

In one case, X would be 1, and in the later case X would be .001.

The base rate of ten in order to explain the concept, or exemplify the concept is not wrong.

I've looked at the data, the University of Alaska has looked at the data, law enforcement has looked at the data, and the FBI has compiled and looked at the data.

You want me to believe you can see what they cannot.

I suggest you take a night course in mathematics, with some emphasis on statistical modeling. You're not grasping simple concepts and you're trying to invent a model that has no basis in reality.

Good luck with that. If you're a betting man, I'd sure like to be your bookie.

[RayinAK]

Originally Posted by User 2

Ray,

I refuse to believe you are unable to see that X per 100 can be expressed as X per 100,000 and still be valid.

In one case, X would be 1, and in the later case X would be .001.

The base rate of ten in order to explain the concept, or exemplify the concept is not wrong.

I've looked at the data, the University of Alaska has looked at the data, law enforcement has looked at the data, and the FBI has compiled and looked at the data.

You want me to believe you can see what they cannot.

I suggest you take a night course in mathematics, with some emphasis on statistical modeling. You're not grasping simple concepts and you're trying to invent a model that has no basis in reality.

Good luck with that. If you're a betting man, I'd sure like to be your bookie.

I understand the math, but you said "100" instead of what the tables show. The crime data is based on 100,000, and the number is shown right on the tables. Look it up if you don't believe me. Now, forget about the 100 versus 100,000 as shown on the tables with the data.

Add the numbers and types of crimes for Fairbanks in 2006, then match those numbers against the same types of crimes committed in Anchorage in 2006. Is the total number of the crimes committed in Anchorage in 2006 lower than the total number of crimes committed in Fairbanks?

I am going to make it even easier for you. Here is the link:
Table 8 (Alaska) - Crime in the United States 2006 (http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/data/table_08_ak.html - broken link)

Now, take a calculator and add every number for Anchorage, beginning with "Violent Crime" at the left side of the table, and ending with the last number at the right side of the table. What's the total? Please enter the number here: ______________

Now, move down the table to Fairbanks, and add the every number beginning with "Violent Crime" at the left of the table, and ending with the last number at the right side of the table. What's the total? Please enter the number here: _______________

Which Alaska city had the greater number of crimes (NOT PER-CAPITA)?

[User 2]

The reason the totals aren't used for comparison is that there is no comparison to be made.

You have to find a common denominator.

Hence, rate of crime per capita.

Now some people will try to take averages and perform some sleight of hand by 'tricking' people with those averages. That's why it's important to understand statistical modeling.

You can take any number and build a statistic that will 'appear' to make a point.

Take that number and run it through a few more steps and the appearance of a point disappears.

Yes, Anchorage had more incidences of crime, all that tells you is you had a larger sample.

No point can be made beyond that until you apply how that breaks down in relation to other towns and to do that, you have to pick a formula which will account for the difference in sample size unless the populations are the same.

Yes, there are many other known factors which can be considered, which may make some slight statistical variances in the per-capita data, among those variables are:

Population density and degree of urbanization.

Variations in composition of the population, particularly youth concentration.

Stability of the population with respect to residents' mobility, commuting patterns, and transient factors.

Modes of transportation and highway system.

Economic conditions, including median income, poverty level, and job availability.

Cultural factors and educational, recreational, and religious characteristics.

Family conditions with respect to divorce and family cohesiveness.

Climate.

Effective strength of law enforcement agencies.

Administrative and investigative emphases of law enforcement.

Policies of other components of the criminal justice system (i.e.,
prosecutorial, judicial, correctional, and probational).

Citizens' attitudes toward crime.

Crime reporting practices of the citizenry.

The thing is, once you apply all those variables to any two cities, the error margin is offset in one by the error margin in the other since neither city will match in all those socio-economical areas of variance.

The per-capita crime rate will still be valid as a snapshot in time for one to use to judge the relative crime in one area versus another.

[RayinAK]

My question was very simple:

Total number of crimes committed in Anchorage in 2006 (from the link I posted above), and the total number of crimes committed in Fairbanks in 2006 (from the same link).

I was trying, and trying, and trying, to illustrate (in a very simple but logical way), that in general more crimes are committed in the most populated cities or towns than in less-populated ones. That has been my point all along.

[Marty Van Diest]

Bottom line on crime in Fairbanks or any other place...stay away from stupid people doing stupid things and you will avoid 90% of criminal activity.

Spend most of your time in the bars and on the street and you will likely eventually have a problem.

[icthy]

Originally Posted by Marty Van Diest

Bottom line on crime in Fairbanks or any other place...stay away from stupid people doing stupid things and you will avoid 90% of criminal activity.

Spend most of your time in the bars and on the street and you will likely eventually have a problem.

True, but I once lived in a bad neighborhood where you could hear gunshots every night, and didn't walk around after the sun went down. It really sucked.

I also grew up in a town with gangs, and I was afraid most days in high school. I don't want that for my kids.

And I like to walk and bike on the street....so hopefully I can do that in Fairbanks.

[siamiam]

Originally Posted by icthy

True, but I once lived in a bad neighborhood where you could hear gunshots every night, and didn't walk around after the sun went down. It really sucked.

I also grew up in a town with gangs, and I was afraid most days in high school. I don't want that for my kids.

And I like to walk and bike on the street....so hopefully I can do that in Fairbanks.

trust me numbers and stats can only say some things. ive lived in some bad areas down in the lower 48 and Hawaii, Fairbanks really isnt any where remotely like that at all. you will have no problem at all riding or biking around Fairbanks in the summer.