Red River flooding 2013 (Fargo, Grand Forks, Center: vs, assess, airport)

[Kamsack]

I dont think anyone truly knows what to expect....we are dealing with historical patterns/weather here....so river models/computer models that predict runoff versus seepage into the ground really cant completely capture what can happen fully. This will be the latest RRV spring snow melt flood in modern history.....we are having the coldest April ever....latest 50 degree day ever..... It is interesting the 100 pct prob is around 38.7 or so, so at least expect that. Now that level of course is no big deal for most all of Fargo except for a few few spots. Over 40 though still requires a fair amount of extra protection....

[dutchinnd]

[quote=dutchinnd;2835241

Now if they change the probabilities to a 40% chance of hitting 41 feet, you really need to pay attention.[/QUOTE]

So that's how I started this thread back on February 21. Feeling just a bit odd about those tossed off numbers ending up being so close to the current projection.

So everybody --really pay attention!

[franktank232]

Day 10 Euro (weather model) shows heat building into the northern plains... So about 7-10 days from now I'd guess most of the snowcover would start to really shrink/disappear.

[Bhaalspawn]

What would happen if it gets to 42 feet? Would downtown Fargo be covered in a foot or two of water?

[Kamsack]

Originally Posted by Bhaalspawn

What would happen if it gets to 42 feet? Would downtown Fargo be covered in a foot or two of water?

without any protection/sandbagging...yes


But good news today is that there was a conf call late yesterday btwn NWS/RFC and city of Fargo engineer and it is looking more and more likely any crest will fall below 39 ft and thus Fargo will scale back their sandbagging to only a level of 40 ft....saving millions of dollars.

The big unknown this year is how much would soak into the ground....and with our very slow and tedious melt so far a lot has as water from snowmelt wasnt enough to overwhelm the ground. With the warming temperatures coming up this weekend it will greatly accelerate things and melt will be fast and not all be able to soak in and thus more runoff and more ditches will open up.

kind of a mix bag snow cover wise....with some fields bare and little water as it soaked in to some having still several inches covered. but it does appear without any big rains forecast before the fargo crest that things may work out ok. after the 2009-20011 flood years, fargo has done a lot to mitigate flooding and thus way less effort and money is needed to fight a large flood now versus 2 years ago.

grand forks will not be impacted either other than getting the greenway some water and likely at least one bridge closed btwn east grand forks and grand forks (making my trek across the river longer). Could be two bridges closed -- downtown one as well. flood wall prep going on now in east grand forks.

[Kamsack]

Midday Wed update...


Crest range 38 to 40 ft late next week.... 40 ft only if 1-2 inches of rain falls with weather system early next week.... otherwise closer to 38 ft.

UPDATE: NWS Lowers Potential Red River Crest Range in Fargo - Valley News Live - KVLY/KXJB - Fargo/Grand Forks

[JanND]

These are some tips from experienced flood evacuees: Fingers crossed you won't need to know any of this...But preparation is essential IMO

Personally...If I lived in an area prone to flooding..I'd rent a motel room somewhere else if possible well before hand. But that is me.

I would recommend that you talk to locals who have been through recent floods. As I recall Downtown is susceptible to flooding and was evacuated in previous events. Know the safest route out of your area in the event of flooding. Avoid underpasses imo any place locally that floods when it rains, avoid trying to drive those areas in the event of evacuating. The city of Fargo pages may have local route information.

It is always good to know someone else in your apartment building or neighborhood. People often check on each other and also may need to help neighbors in the event of an evacuation.

My personal tips: Have a packed bag. Include essentials, your medications/prescriptions. Also any emergency contact information for family. Have your car gassed up and your home owners or insurance papers with you.

Have a list of local numbers, a battery radio, or car radio and a good flashlight, toilet paper and some non perishable food.

Have your pets with you in your car if you have to leave your area, put them in a kennel. Have their supplies. You can always leave them in your car and check on them when you take them with you. I actually have loaded these things ahead of time the last close call we had...so that I could just walk my pet to my car and go.

That was my biggest regret in 97....I listened to the folks tell us pets were not allowed at the emergency shelters. I didn't think it would be a big deal, I had a two story house, so I left food and water on the upstairs landing.

I thought, I'll evacuate to the High School like asked, and that we would be back at home the next day. Wrong!!
It took about 8 days to get my dog and cat evacuated by National volunteers....I will never leave them behind again. IMO


There are emergency operations centers, you should be able to find out the local phone numbers by calling your local non-emergency police numbers, or the phone book. Be proactive and keep updated.

This might be a good page to bookmark and check often:City of Fargo: NOTE:Click on top menu:emergencies...good advice: * - City of Fargo Remember, Write down the emergency numbers, have your prescriptions and any home insurance papers, family numbers etc in your packed bag.

And, also check facebook for a Fargo page: Here is one I found, there may be others: https://www.facebook.com/groups/5449...ref=ts&fref=ts

Here is a CDC page with some tips for preparation:CDC Floods | Key Facts About Flood Readiness


Here is another page discussing the flood situation::Worst of Midwest flooding may not be over

Again, I am hoping that you don't need this information...But have it on hand.


Find a local radio station that gives frequent updates, a local TV station. Get a battery operated radio and good flashlight to have on hand too. There will generally be announcements and locations for you to go locally in the event your particular area becomes at risk.

Personally, since we had a major flood here in Grand Forks I always have a bag packed with essentials, change of clothing, a full tank of gas and a plan just in case you're told to evacuate your area.


Prayers going out that there isn't flooding in Fargo!!

[Kamsack]

updated today....

Fargo flood crest range still holding 38 to 40 range today....but appears more and more lower end is a bit more likely. Still need to see what Wild Rice does.

[JanND]

According to the Fargo 2013 Flood Press Conference, held on local TV this am the Guard and many volunteers are out today throughout the weekend buttoning up on the sandbag dikes all this weekend. They hope to be all done by Monday noon. It might be a good thing to be part of volunteering and getting out and speaking to other neighbors, there will be some wise experienced advice to be had. IMO Everybody be safe!!

[Kamsack]

Elm Street in Fargo this morning as the river pushes above 21 ft. Note however....Elm Street is right along the Red in a low area and always floods and no one lives along this street.