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View Poll Results: How do you see the FL housing market today?
It is horrible and scary! 7 41.18%
It is bad, but not THAT bad. 8 47.06%
It is excellent. 0 0%
It is okay, I guess. 2 11.76%
I do not know/not sure. 0 0%
Voters: 17. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-25-2007, 03:00 AM
 
Location: The best country in the world: the USA
1,499 posts, read 4,817,934 times
Reputation: 737

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This is a warning for anyone who has 1/2 an inch of common sense and is considering buying in Florida.

The riskiest housing markets - Buy a House: MLS Listings & Home Buying Tips - MSN Real Estate

The riskiest housing markets

A new report projects home-price declines for the next two years. The riskiest markets are in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona. Here's how to ride out the hard times.
By Marilyn Lewis

As if the housing market isn't bleak enough. The Standard & Poors' Case-Shiller Home Price Index reported in late June that home prices dropped more in the first quarter of this year than at any other quarter in the last 17 years. Now, a report from PMI Mortgage Insurance says home values could decline across much of the country for at least two more years.

There's a 34.6% chance on average that home prices will drop in the nation's top 50 markets in the next couple of years, according to PMI Mortgage Insurance's new U.S. Market Risk Index, which heavily factors in recent price volatility.

How far and how fast prices actually fall remains to be seen. But the report underscores the fact that today's market is decidedly different from that of recent years, when homeowners could bank on rapid home-value appreciation. (See the report or hear a podcast here.)

Headed for decline

Not surprisingly, the riskiest markets identified by the index are located in areas that saw rapid price appreciation, a reduction in affordability followed by a rapid decrease in the rate of price appreciation. Of the 15 biggest cities with the greatest risk for price decline -- with more than a 50% chance of lower home values by mid-2009 -- five were in California and four were in Florida.


At the highest end of the spectrum, the following major markets all have a greater than 60% chance of declines, according to PMI:

* Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. (65.2%);



* Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. (64.6%);



* Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. (61.4%);



* West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla. (60.7%).



"There's no question that our housing prices are declining here," says Jay Thompson, an agent with Century 21 Aware near Phoenix. "Our appreciation rate was 54% average at one point in mid-2005-2006, so it is no surprise to anybody here … that prices were going to go down."

The inventory numbers tell the story: In January 2005, Thompson's multiple listing service showed 3,500 homes for sale. Today: about 54,000.

Also at risk for dropping values

The next-riskiest top 50 metro areas on the PMI index, with a 50% or greater chance of dropping values in two years, are:


* Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif. (58.6%);



* Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif. (57.7%);



* Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif. (57.2%);



* Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla. (56.3%);



* Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif. (56.0%);



* San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. (55.5%);



* Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla. (54.2%);



* Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla. (52.4%);



* Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. (50.6%);



* Boston-Quincy, Mass. (50.1%);



* Washington, D.C.-Arlington-Alexandria, Va.-W.Va. (50%).
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Old 07-25-2007, 05:52 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
9,295 posts, read 14,181,407 times
Reputation: 10013
The chairman of the country's largest mortgage company also predicted no upturn in housing prices for at least the rest of 2007 and all of 2008.

Credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor's and Moody's have lost credibility after having assigned AAA ratings to securities whose underlying "assets" are subprime mortgages.

The subprime mortgage crisis is spreading to other credit markets: the government bond/corporate bond spread is widening substantially now for the first time since the credit bubble started earlier this decade.

Let's face it, the ruling class in this country duped millions of unsuspecting people into debt they can never repay. If they do bail them out, it will be at the expense of the taxpayers, not those who profited from the speculation.

Good luck in a risky market!
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Old 07-25-2007, 07:10 AM
 
17,453 posts, read 38,829,694 times
Reputation: 24072
Interesting, because there are 3 cities in Florida which are on CNN.Money.com's list of best places to invest: Panama City, Vero Beach, and Lakeland. (Lakeland being between Tampa and Orlando, two cities in the above named article)

We just bought in Lakeland, and the economy there is doing very well. Yes, there has been a slowdown in sales from the boom times of a couple years ago, but it is one of the few places in Florida showing appreciation (because frankly, real estate here is cheap!) We just bought a home, got a great deal, and everything we looked at recently has also gone under contract.

So not all of Florida is in trouble.

New Rules of Real Estate 2006: Best Places to (Still) Invest - November 1, 2006
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Old 07-25-2007, 07:48 AM
 
6,565 posts, read 14,247,424 times
Reputation: 3229
Quote:
Originally Posted by gypsychic View Post
Interesting, because there are 3 cities in Florida which are on CNN.Money.com's list of best places to invest: Panama City, Vero Beach, and Lakeland. (Lakeland being between Tampa and Orlando, two cities in the above named article)

We just bought in Lakeland, and the economy there is doing very well. Yes, there has been a slowdown in sales from the boom times of a couple years ago, but it is one of the few places in Florida showing appreciation (because frankly, real estate here is cheap!) We just bought a home, got a great deal, and everything we looked at recently has also gone under contract.

So not all of Florida is in trouble.

New Rules of Real Estate 2006: Best Places to (Still) Invest - November 1, 2006
Except for Vero it makes sense to me..... Lakeland is a self-sufficient little city much like Ocala that was just waiting to be discovered. People in the Orlando and Tampa markets looking for affordable housing would naturally gravitate out that way. Not a big shock.

Now...... Tell me what happens when/if the Tampa and Orlano markets hit a major correction and price drop??? What does that do for Lakeland when people commuting an hour each way (on a good day) suddenly see affordability closer to work??? There goes the house of cards.

It's a theory for sure, but something I'm watching for here as well, being in an outlying commuter location of the DC Metro area.
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Old 07-25-2007, 08:07 AM
 
17,453 posts, read 38,829,694 times
Reputation: 24072
VAFury - if that happens, it makes no difference to me and hubby - he will continue to commute to Tampa, because we don't like the bigger cities with all the congestion and crime. Lakeland is a beautiful, clean and safe city, with plenty of amenities all its own, yet a quaint "old Florida" feel. I believe a lot of people live here for those same qualities. And if some decide to move due to future affordability in the cities, all the better, I don't want Lakeland to grow too much! Guess I need to stop hyping the place! lol
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Old 07-25-2007, 08:22 AM
 
628 posts, read 1,309,703 times
Reputation: 550
Quote:
Originally Posted by VAFury View Post
Except for Vero it makes sense to me..... Lakeland is a self-sufficient little city much like Ocala that was just waiting to be discovered. People in the Orlando and Tampa markets looking for affordable housing would naturally gravitate out that way. Not a big shock.

Now...... Tell me what happens when/if the Tampa and Orlano markets hit a major correction and price drop??? What does that do for Lakeland when people commuting an hour each way (on a good day) suddenly see affordability closer to work??? There goes the house of cards.

It's a theory for sure, but something I'm watching for here as well, being in an outlying commuter location of the DC Metro area.
Vero Beach was the #2 city in the nation as the best place to invest for the next 5 years. What are you seeing that is negative about Vero?
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Old 07-25-2007, 10:48 AM
 
1,257 posts, read 4,559,933 times
Reputation: 1034
Quote:
Originally Posted by gypsychic View Post
VAFury - if that happens, it makes no difference to me and hubby - he will continue to commute to Tampa, because we don't like the bigger cities with all the congestion and crime. Lakeland is a beautiful, clean and safe city, with plenty of amenities all its own, yet a quaint "old Florida" feel. I believe a lot of people live here for those same qualities. And if some decide to move due to future affordability in the cities, all the better, I don't want Lakeland to grow too much! Guess I need to stop hyping the place! lol
Actually, I have the same feeling for Tradition, PSL. I think the development should stop now. So I can easily pick up my morning coffee to get on I-95, buy grocery from Publix in the evening and shop at Target, Old navy, Pet Smart... during the weekend. I can walk along the lakes with my dogs peacefully. BTW, my friend just bought a vacation house in Lakeland. He invited us to join his family when they'll go and stay there next time. We will join them to have some fun.
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Old 07-25-2007, 10:57 AM
 
6,565 posts, read 14,247,424 times
Reputation: 3229
Quote:
Originally Posted by gypsychic View Post
VAFury - if that happens, it makes no difference to me and hubby - he will continue to commute to Tampa, because we don't like the bigger cities with all the congestion and crime. Lakeland is a beautiful, clean and safe city, with plenty of amenities all its own, yet a quaint "old Florida" feel. I believe a lot of people live here for those same qualities. And if some decide to move due to future affordability in the cities, all the better, I don't want Lakeland to grow too much! Guess I need to stop hyping the place! lol
I hope for you that Lakeland stays quaint. Heck , you can always go to Bartow, Kathleen or Auburndale if it gets too big, right???
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Old 07-25-2007, 11:00 AM
 
6,565 posts, read 14,247,424 times
Reputation: 3229
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jareb View Post
Vero Beach was the #2 city in the nation as the best place to invest for the next 5 years. What are you seeing that is negative about Vero?
Guess over-investing didn't happen in Vero then??? That's what doesn't make sense to me. All along the East Coast speculators went crazy, but why not in Vero??? Now everything south of there real-estate wise is teetering on the brink of a real-estate bust and Vero some how becomes the big winner???

Something just doesn't make sense, but that's nothing new for me...
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Old 07-25-2007, 11:02 AM
 
1,418 posts, read 10,157,774 times
Reputation: 947
Quote:
Let's face it, the ruling class in this country duped millions of unsuspecting people into debt they can never repay.
Now, come on. No one was duped. People did get greedy. People did think that real estate prices could only go up. Well, greedy people also thought that the stock market could only go up in the late '90's, but they weren't "duped" either. All of the signs were there in both markets for people to invest cautiously. The problem with "cautious investing" is that some people simply can't stand to miss out on the huge profits they hear their friends are making, so they jump on the band wagon.

Why do you think we make our kids play games like "hot potato" and "musical chairs"? Both of these games have important morals to them, that some of us, as adults, seem to have forgotten.
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