[Muggy]

OldTimer, please check the links in my 7:48 p.m. post and run the numbers yourself.

[pslOldTimer]

Originally Posted by Muggy

I did.

Let's make the math easy: In the year 2004, 1,000 people a day moved to Florida. This is roughly verified by the U.S. census. At the end of the year, there were 365,000 more people in Florida. Ooops! That data is incorrect! There were 218,000 babies born in Florida that year.

Let's assume that if you weren't born here you moved here (huge assumption). The math is now 365,000 (rounded up in YOUR FAVOR) minus the 218,000 babies born here, divided by 365.

The answer is: 405 people a day "moved" to Florida. The rest were born here.

I am using information provided by the government, both HARD and estimated (rounded to YOUR FAVOR) and the real number is 405.

You forgot the people who died. Without bothering to look up the numbers (not worth it), that pretty much washes out the people who were born. We're back to net numbers -- if there were 365,000 more people here, they moved here. And, in fact, there may well have been 1500 people a day move here, and 500 move out.

Frankly, I can't figure out what your point is.

[weatherfordfan]

I live here in New Port Richey, FL in the Tampa metro area and I am going to give you my viewpoint. From 1995, this was a below-average populated area and I have seen the houses TRIPLE in price the last 10 years. We aren't talking about mansions either, we are talking about small houses on zero lots jumping from 40 to 120k. The area has seen a MASS influx of people from the Northeast (NJ, NY, MA, etc.) and Michigan. The inland used to be nothing but trees and they are putting up stripe malls faster than you can imagine. There is a an urban sprawl going on right now and they are calling the area that's being built up "NEW TAMPA." They put houses up and they are sold before they even get them finished. The dirt wages have always been the norm here, however, the wages used to be consistent with the cost of living (in other words, low wages but it was cheap to live here). Now, it's no longer cheap to live here and the wages haven't advanced. The governor has blocked every attempt to raise minimum wage and even though they voted 6 month increases they haven't been keeping up. The wages here are horrible. I mean absolutely disgusting. There are people with Bachelor's degrees working two minimum wage jobs just to pay the rent. I love the sunshine too, but I can't keep spinning my wheels here. The nights here are absolutely beautiful and you can't beat it. However, I remember reading cost of living went up 18% here last year and wages only went up 3%. While some people may be able to afford it, I just can't anymore. It's no fun sitting home on Friday Night and doing nothing just because of the slave wages. If you want to move down here, come on down and give it a shot. I'm not telling people not to move here, I'm just letting them know that if you aren't into owning a business, building, or a doctor/lawyer, it's going to be a heavy struggle for the average person. Insurances have gone through the ceiling. Crime statistics are absolutely insane. But if you want to come down here, good luck. I just want to give you a viewpoint from someone who actually lives down here.

[Southside Shrek]

Weatherford
hasn't the general mentality of many Florida employers for years been that people who wish to live in 'paradise' should not also expect high wages?

[weatherfordfan]

Originally Posted by Southside Shrek

Weatherford
hasn't the general mentality of many Florida employers for years been that people who wish to live in 'paradise' should not also expect high wages?

Yeah, but everything else was cheap around it. You used to be able to buy a house here for 20-40k. Gas was 82 cents a gallon. A Whopper (not the Junior) was 99 cents. We used to pay $600 a year for everything (all our taxes), now try over $3200. Car insurance was cheaper. So you're $5 dollars an hour went a much longer way. You could rent an apartment here for $300-$400 - a nice one bedroom. Now a nice one bedroom will cost you around $650-$700, and it's getting harder to find one-bedrooms now that they are turning many of them into condos. I live in the Tampa area and I know South Florida is twice as bad with their increases.

Raising from $5 to $6.15, that extra $1.15 doesn't cover all those raises. And it's only going to get worse with all the people moving down the employers have more choices (a larger supply of workers) and a higher demand for a minimum wage job (people need to pay those high rents).

Low worker wages are okay with a low cost of living. The wages just don't match the high increases anymore.

[pslOldTimer]

Originally Posted by weatherfordfan

Yeah, but everything else was cheap around it. You used to be able to buy a house here for 20-40k. Gas was 82 cents a gallon. A Whopper (not the Junior) was 99 cents. We used to pay $600 a year for everything (all our taxes), now try over $3200. Car insurance was cheaper. So you're $5 dollars an hour went a much longer way. You could rent an apartment here for $300-$400 - a nice one bedroom.

Your point is essentially valid, but your numbers are off. You're comparing apples to oranges.

The last time I saw prices like that was 1978. The minimum wage in 1978 was $2.65/hour, or about half of today's rate. But, salaries for folks with some education were much lower then than now. A starting teacher probably made about $12,000 per year or less.

[weatherfordfan]

Yeah you live in South Florida, I live in Pasco County. Pasco County has always been cheaper than South Florida. Gas was 85 cents a gallon here in 1995, there was no minimum wage but most employers were around $4-5/hr, and you could buy a house here that now goes for $200k for around $50k. South Florida has always been more expensive. And our Burger King on the corner of Moog Rd. and Highway 19 in Holiday, FL had 99 cent Whoppers until the year 2000.

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by pslOldTimer

You forgot the people who died. Without bothering to look up the numbers (not worth it), that pretty much washes out the people who were born.

Not true. The census is a sweeping head count. The dead and newly born are factored in. That is exactly why the phrase "A 1,000 people a day..." is inaccurate.

There is an observable increase of 1,000 people. That is fact. The increase, however, is not entirely due to people moving here.

My point: using that phrase is unethical.

By the way, the contrapositive of this fallacy plagues New York. No, not everyone is "leaving." New York's population has grown. There are trends and certain cities loosing net population, but there is no mass exodus.

[beachgere]

TourFloridasCoast.com says that USA Today said this is happening despite the 2005 hurricane season. Here is the link http://www.tourfloridascoast.com/investorwanted.html

[FLBob]

Florida state does the research, the numbers change year to year, but with all the variables taken into account, the population of Florida continues to grow. See the article.
Is Florida shrinking?