[moving123456]

Originally Posted by waiting

More inspiring news!
I'm feeling rather upbeat right now!






Federal report: Home prices still going up - Aug. 30, 2007

I think you missed the bottom of the article listing Florida areas as having negative numbers.

That article is also multiple months old. Nice try though.

Here is the florida section of the actual federal OFHEO report talked about in the article.

http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/statepdfs/FL.pdf (broken link)

[deckardc]

Originally Posted by waiting

Interesting, that no one could predict when the sellers market bubble would burst or even if there was one but you can predict, with clarity, that the next 5 years will still be a buyers market.
And did you consult a crystal ball that wasn't available back in ancient 2005?

Actually, many people with very sound backgrounds in economics, predicted the bubble crash long before it ended. It wasn't the first bubble economy in the world and they always end the same way so it shouldn't have been a big shock to anyone when it ended.

Originally Posted by waiting

No, it's getting old to hear " the sky is falling...the sky is falling..." constantly on this forum. You're all sellers trying to scare everyone to death.
I like Florida...and I can wait it out....but 2008 is a good year...

Do you realize how ridiculous that sounds. If we were seller's we would be saying the opposite. We would want to convince everyone that the glory days are coming back any day now so that we could get the top price for our houses. My wife wants out of Florida and I want to make my wife happy, so I would love to be a seller thus it would behoove me to convince people that they should buy my house now, now, now before prices start going up again.

Since you made reference to Chicken Little, I assume you like fairy tales. Therefore, you will only want to hear the good stories that make you feel better regardless of whether they are reality or not. The only info you are presenting is either from biased sources like the NAR or something you've "heard". Other posters have pointed out the other logical market fundamentals that have a bearing on real estate, as well as the overall economy, but you don't want to hear it. Do some research yourself and ignore the info from the NAR. It's out there in sources like Bloomberg, Money, the Wall Street Journal, and CNBC. They don't have much positive to say about the housing market, especially in Florida.

Listening to anyone affiliated with the real estate industry tell you the market will turn around any day now is like a pedophile telling you he's the perfect babysitter for your kids. They have an ulterior motive. After all, as recently as last year the president of the NAR, David Lereah, was insisting there was no housing bubble and prices would soar in 2006.

No way will 2008 be a seller's market. I have one word for you... Foreclosure. Many foreclosures do not equal a seller's market. They depress the market for everyone not in foreclosure. The majority of ARMs in this country were issued in the last half of 2004 and the first half of 2005. The standard term on an ARM was 3 years, which means the bulk of these loans will be resetting over the next 6 months. Florida has the second highest number of ARMs in the nation. On average, it takes 120 days to process a foreclosure in FL. While a few people will be able to handle their new interest rates or re-fi, many will not and foreclosures will climb. Florida already has the second highest foreclosure rate in the country. According to a recent article in Money magazine:

"In Florida, there were 86,465 foreclosure filings on 60,992 properties during the third quarter, RealtyTrac said. Foreclosure filings rose 51.5 percent from the previous quarter and more than doubled from the same quarter last year. Florida's foreclosure rate amounted to one filing for every 95 households."

One filing for every 95 households is ugly. In addition to the new interest rates, there is the exponential increases in homeowners insurance, Florida's wonky property tax system, the demise of the dollar, inflation, new tougher lending standards, and many sellers refusal to lower prices to reasonable levels. I think houses will sell here and there, but I don't think it will, in any way, be a seller's market any time soon.

[deckardc]

Here is an article posted today in Money magazine about how there is no slowdown in foreclosures:
Foreclosure filings: No slowdown yet - Nov. 14, 2007

[firemed]

Originally Posted by waiting

Interesting, that no one could predict when the sellers market bubble would burst or even if there was one but you can predict, with clarity, that the next 5 years will still be a buyers market.
And did you consult a crystal ball that wasn't available back in ancient 2005?
No, it's getting old to hear " the sky is falling...the sky is falling..." constantly on this forum. You're all sellers trying to scare everyone to death.
I like Florida...and I can wait it out....but 2008 is a good year...

It was easy to see back in 2005 the the market had changed. The sky in not falling but the housing market is. If you made a bad investment shame on you but don't try to give false info to save you own skin. If you can wait it out great but you may want to add a few years to your guess. All the hard numbers show after 2010 at the best.
When Home Builders Hit the Skids - WSJ.com

[TimtheGuy]

Originally Posted by waiting

We've heard from all the buyers out there and I'd like to hear
from SELLERS or would be SELLERS only.
When do you think the market will realistically swing back to a sellers
market?
Now remember, no body knew for sure when the so-called " bubble" would burst or even if it was a " bubble " as the experts were saying that Florida might be a different kind of market. Afterall, as I was told, there's only so
much sea coast.
I read 2008 looks good for a sellers market; what do you think homeowner?
So Homeowner, what do you think?

A 'sellers market' means there are more buyers than sellers. The market can be varying degrees of a sellers market, nuetual market (# of buyers & sellers in equillibrium) or a buyers market (more sellers than buyers).

I would say the chance of 2008 being a:

sellers market are 0%-5% chance
neutral market 5%-10%
buyers market 90%+

After 2008 I would say the market will be neutral at best for a while. You may not see a true "sellers market" for many years or even a decade.

[CJFlorida]

I will throw the OP one bone. It is always a sellers market for those who price their homes at market value. Market value is, of course, the price a buyer is willing to pay today.

Some sellers are indeed selling their homes. Some wrote up contracts today, others will tomorrow. The problem is that overall, inventory levels are increasing or at least stagnant, depending on the area. Obviously, prices for the most part are simply too high.

As far as seller's playing 'name my price' like many did 3 years ago, probably won't happen again for decades, if ever, since the rules of lending are being changed rapidly from what they were the past 5 years.

The bubble was inflated by funny/easy/irresponsible lending. Simply reading the financial pages will tell you the havoc that has created. The fuel for future 'seller's markets' has run out.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by CJFlorida

I will throw the OP one bone. It is always a sellers market for those who price their homes at market value. Market value is, of course, the price a buyer is willing to pay today.

Some sellers are indeed selling their homes. Some wrote up contracts today, others will tomorrow. The problem is that overall, inventory levels are increasing or at least stagnant, depending on the area. Obviously, prices for the most part are simply too high.

As far as seller's playing 'name my price' like many did 3 years ago, probably won't happen again for decades, if ever, since the rules of lending are being changed rapidly from what they were the past 5 years.

The bubble was inflated by funny/easy/irresponsible lending. Simply reading the financial pages will tell you the havoc that has created. The fuel for future 'seller's markets' has run out.

Very well said !

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by waiting

Interesting, that no one could predict when the sellers market bubble would burst or even if there was one but you can predict, with clarity, that the next 5 years will still be a buyers market.
And did you consult a crystal ball that wasn't available back in ancient 2005?
No, it's getting old to hear " the sky is falling...the sky is falling..." constantly on this forum. You're all sellers trying to scare everyone to death.
I like Florida...and I can wait it out....but 2008 is a good year...

If you like give me your email address, I will forward you emails I sent to friends in real estate back in 2003/2004 predicting all of this. NPR was talking about this from way back then. They also predicted back then (2003/2004) that the US economy would come crashing down and lo and behold it is.

Generally speaking people like Fed Chair wont come out and say how bad it is because the masses will panic and make things worse. That is what happened during the great depression when people pulled all their money out of banks.

[CJFlorida]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

If you like give me your email address, I will forward you emails I sent to friends in real estate back in 2003/2004 predicting all of this. NPR was talking about this from way back then. They also predicted back then (2003/2004) that the US economy would come crashing down and lo and behold it is.

Generally speaking people like Fed Chair wont come out and say how bad it is because the masses will panic and make things worse. That is what happened during the great depression when people pulled all their money out of banks.

The main stream media gets lots of advertising dollars from businesses involved in real estate. They let the bubble inflate without talking the truth. Even now they let the National Association of Realtor's spokesperson have a say in any article about real estate. So you will never get how bad things are from the main stream media.

But the blogs, NPR, and responsible lenders said all along that there were no fundamentals to support real estate prices going up so fast.

Common sense tells you that if income levels have remained stagnant for the past 6 years when adjusted for inflation, there is no reason for real estate to skyrocket. You can't add 2 plus 2 and get 10, unless you give loans to people who could not afford them, inflate appraisals, and publish nonsense such as real estate could go up 20%/year forever.

But this was no surprise to anyone who did even a little bit of research before buying a house. If the media income of the neighborhood you are buying a house in is $40,000, you don't pay $300,000 for a house in that neighborhood. Because if you do, there is a good chance that sooner or later, your house will return to its real value of $150,000, the value that is supported by that neighborhood's fundamentals.

[Michgoner]

There is a slight ray of hope , with the Canadian snowbirds . The dollar exchange is in their favor finally , which may give them an incentive to buy now. Of course this only helps the retiree parks more , because of the six month rule . Just my 2 cents worth .