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View Poll Results: When will the housing Bust end in FL?
By the end of this year 21 8.30%
Spring 2008 28 11.07%
Summer 2008 16 6.32%
Fall 2008 17 6.72%
Winter 2008 12 4.74%
Spring 2009 29 11.46%
Summer 2009 18 7.11%
Fall 2009 11 4.35%
Winter 2009 9 3.56%
Sometime in 2010 38 15.02%
Sometime in 2011 13 5.14%
Sometime in 2012 11 4.35%
2013 or later 30 11.86%
Voters: 253. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-11-2007, 07:00 AM
 
Location: Riverview
372 posts, read 802,348 times
Reputation: 79

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Hi folks!

When do you think the housing bust will end? According to some people in the business, you shouldn't spend more than 2-3x your gross annual income on a home. The FL median income is $42k and the median price of a home is $237. That means a median income family can afford a home priced between $84-$126k. The median price is $117k more than the median income!!!

In regard to the news, I'll continue to post relevent news on the housing bust to help those of us on the sidelines receive the latest information on housing news and any turn of events in that sector of the market.

Regarding the poll, all RE is local. That's a given assumption. This is a poll to see what the public opinion is on the slump.

Here's my disclaimer: I'm not a real estate professional and my opinion is just an opinion. Unlike the NAR's Lawrence Yun, I'll tell it like it is, but only as an opinion.

Thanks to those who contribute to the thread! PLEASE VOICE YOUR OPINIONS, NO MATTER HOW LONG THIS THREAD MAY BECOME!!! It's important that your voice is heard, whether you agree or disgree.

Also, PLEASE BE CIVILIZED. NO NAME CALLING AND DON'T INSULT OTHER'S PEOPLE!!! I WILL ENCOURAGE ANYONE TO CONTACT A MODERATOR IF SOMEONE VIOLATES THIS REQUEST!!!

NYCF

Last edited by nychiefsfan; 07-11-2007 at 07:52 AM..
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Old 07-11-2007, 07:06 AM
 
Location: Riverview
372 posts, read 802,348 times
Reputation: 79
This link is the main reason why people should not buy a house right now. After you click on the link, click on the picture and it'll magnify:
http://www.1stmillionat33.com/posts/.../house_his.gif

For us, one of the most important factors in buying a home is the quality of education in the area. That's a reflection of the neighborhood and potential crime issues. Here's some school rating websites you might want to check out. It's so important to have good schooling available. The first one is the best one, IMO:
Florida School Indicators Report
GreatSchools.net

Here's some great housing search links:
Zip Realty has an interactive map that's really cool. You can get comparable sales numbers, exact street addresses, the days the house has been on the market, see all of reductions the owner made, etc. Sign up for free on their website and they'll send you any updates immediately.
ZipRealty Real Estate -- Homes for sale and local real estate agents

If you would like to do a customizable search, this website below, you can do a search by subdivision, (if there's a particular subdivision that you're interested in):
Tampa Home Listings - Tampa Bay Home Listings - Tampa Home Search - Search Homes in Tampa

Property Appraisal
On the upper right hand corner of the link below, you can search property records that will tell you everything about the property, including what the current owner paid for it, the date they bought it, if the house has anything extra, like a fireplace, pool or spa, how may square feet, bedrooms, bathrooms, etc. It also has an interactive map that allows you to see exactly where the house is located:
Hillsborough County Property Appraiser (http://www.hcpafl.org/www/index.shtml - broken link) (outside of Hillsborough County, you can do a Google search by typing in your county and property appraiser)

Some additional sites you may want to consider are:
Craigslist (do a local search for your area)
tampa bay area real estate for sale classifieds - craigslist (http://tampa.craigslist.org/rfs/ - broken link)

Any For Sale by Owner site like:
FSBO, Real Estate For Sale by Owner, Homes, Houses, Property for sale by owner
For Sale By Owner, homes for sale, real estate, for sale by builder from Infotube.net

Misc: (check out your area's Penny Savers, Flyers, etc)
The Flyer Classifieds Online: Local ads in Florida

Bank Owned Properties:
Your online source for buying HUD homes, foreclosures and bank owned properties, helpful resources and links (Check out the REO section for links)

Median values
National City has a great interactive map which shows their estimate of median house value and the actual price over the periods for which they have data.
Housing Valuation Analysis*-*Corporate*-*National City Corporation

This site gives you a running total of existing home inventory in virtually every city in America. I've been tracking this on an excel spreadsheet since 5/13/07. Since 6/27/07, there are 48 less homes on the market in the Riverview, Brandon and Seffner areas. That doesn't necessarily mean they've sold. I'm tracking 78 homes on an excel spreadsheet and a lot are now "inactive". I suspect that homeowners are pulling their houses off of the market until the market heats up again. The reason I say this is based on the number of homes that were listed as inactive this past month and the fact that pending home sales (a leading indicator of housing activity based on contracts agreed by owner and seller) fell 7.6% in May vs. April's numbers and are down 13.7% from a year ago.
Paper Money - A Real Estate Bubble Blog (http://www.paperdinero.com/Inventory.aspx?town=phoenix&state=AZ&ref=patrick.n et - broken link)

Speaking of economic indicators, this next site is awesome. The housing industry has so much influence on the economy and vise-versa. This site gives you every report you could want in regard to economic indicators such as housing starts, existing home sales, pending home sales, consumer confidence, builder's confidence, unemployment, building permits, auto sales, factory orders, personal income, etc. They are ALL tied into housing and the direction of the economy.
Reports from Briefing.com - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

Here's some incredible blogs that are informative and useful:
It's A Terrible Time To Buy
Housing Crash Continues, Bubble Pops

Paper Money: A US Real Estate Bubble Blog (check out the "cool tools" on the RH side of the page)
Paper Money - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Look into your county or area's NAR.
This site is the Greater Tampa Association of Realtor's website. It gives you a lot of numbers to work with, if you love numbers. Check out your area to compare this years numbers to the last 2-3-4 years and see the difference!!!
GTAR (broken link)

I hope these links help those who use them!!!

NYCF
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Old 07-11-2007, 07:12 AM
 
Location: Riverview
372 posts, read 802,348 times
Reputation: 79
The criteria for the end of the housing slump will be when there's an increase in sales year over year and previous over the previous month for a sustained period of time (at least two quarters).

At this point, no one knows the answer until we see it in hindsight.

PS:
Here's my prediction: 2010 (or later!)
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Old 07-11-2007, 07:37 AM
 
Location: Riverview
372 posts, read 802,348 times
Reputation: 79
People can no longer use their homes as ATM's. The ones trying to sell their homes, IMO, are including the home equity loans that they used for their vacations, new cars, etc. I'm not willing to pay for their 2007 Lexus or all-inclusive trip to Aruba.

The scariest part is it's all starting to catch up to the economy. The stock market has been taking a dump recently, the US dollar is dropping, and personal spending on household items, such as furniture, garden supplies, etc, has taken a substantial hit on the economy.

This is serious, folks.

U.S. stocks fall after Bernanke speech
NEW YORK: Builders, banks and retailers sent the U.S. stock market tumbling Tuesday for the first time in six sessions on increasing evidence that the housing slump was depressing earnings. Sears, the biggest U.S. department store company, posted the biggest drop in the S&P 500.

Stocks stayed lower Tuesday afternoon after the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, said that energy price increases during the past few years "have not led either to persistent inflation or to a recession" in contrast to the 1970s.
U.S. stocks fall after Bernanke speech - International Herald Tribune

If the housing slump nudges our economy into a recession, the Federal Reserve might be forced to lower interest rates, an action that could ultimately lead to an exodus from U.S. bond investments to foreign equivalents with higher yields. Such an outcome could drive the dollar down even more.
Seacoastonline.com: Exchange rate secrets and you
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Old 07-11-2007, 08:20 AM
 
960 posts, read 1,466,285 times
Reputation: 409
Once again nychiefsfan, thanks for the informative links. Currently I am spending a great deal of time looking over our area property appraiser website and am getting a great feel for the amount I would offer on any of the houses I have a little interest in.

Here is an offering on our area MLS that is within the median family's (making $42,000 yearly) budget.

The owners of this little gem own a few homes on this very same (somewhat derelict) block.


$114,900
Bedrooms: 2
Baths: 1 Full Bath
Est SqFt: 558 (bigger than a closet, smaller than a bathroom lol)
1 Car Attached Carport

"Owner selling house next door as well, small house but the price is less then most mobile homes, please allow 24 hrs notice to see this. Priced low even in this market!!!"

In 1997 it sold for $28,500 !

Would that make it a 400% increase in 10 years or am I lacking in math skills?

In my humble opinion, it will be at least 3 years before the houses return to a normal valuation, if not longer.
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Old 07-11-2007, 09:07 AM
 
Location: Florida
83 posts, read 362,173 times
Reputation: 29
Its All Local...
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Old 07-11-2007, 09:10 AM
 
960 posts, read 1,466,285 times
Reputation: 409
It's nationwide....
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Old 07-11-2007, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,488 posts, read 18,859,159 times
Reputation: 5397
It's a combination of the 2...
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Old 07-11-2007, 09:29 AM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,488 posts, read 18,859,159 times
Reputation: 5397
Some areas have seen bottom, they were not a high profile destination and were not overbuilt so some homebuyers are seeking out these areas.

Some will see it by the end of the year, these areas were overbuilt but not to the degree that some areas were and the home prices are still in a realatively reasonable range.

Some will see it 18-24 months out, these areas were extremely overbuilt and prices shot up to the point where it is just not feasable for most to move there thus limiting the potential buyer pool.

I voted for end of year based on my area.
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Old 07-11-2007, 09:34 AM
 
Location: So. Dak.
13,495 posts, read 35,117,961 times
Reputation: 15171
Yea, it's pretty much nationwide according to the posts on this forum, but Florida was one of the areas that took a tremendous jump so they'll have more problems then a lot of areas.

My vote was for 2013 or later. I know there have been several articles stating that it would correct by next spring or within another year, etc. But I'm basing it on the things I've seen with ag land in my own area. It can jump tremendously, stay that way for a couple of years, then go back to being just a bit higher then it originally was. It can then take 10-20 years to spike to a ridiculous price again. Guess by that time people forget or didn't actually live through the problems it causes. There are always way too many foreclosures when it spikes~people panic and think it will increase forever and they have to buy NOW, only to find out they've borrowed much more $$ then they can ever repay.
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