[firemed]

That playstation 3 thing is funny ! you kill me bro.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by firemed

I have to disagree and at the same time agree as strange as it sounds. But we are entering into a period of uncharted waters. Real estate is a good investment at times, but its very simple, buy low and sell high. You never assume you have the best product because time will always prove your wrong. Cash is still the best choice at this point in the game. You have to understand you never own land. Example, the Caloosa indians owned all of south Florida( or thought they did ) and then of course there's imminent domain! Just don't pay your taxes one year and see what happens. Today the debt in housing and land purchases far exceed the stocks bought on margin just before the great depression. This is global. Don't take this as a gloom and doom tactic, accept it as fact. Waterfront property is not that great. I can open my doors and look at the water every day. Theres nothing quite like the smell of red tide in the summer. So don't criticize those on the sidelines waiting for the market to correct. It's not like stocks, housing takes time to rise and fall outside the frenzy of a bubble. But I do commend you on your optimism. However smart money always utilizes caution. Thinking out of the box is the name of the game, but sometimes you realize there is no box. This is a website you should look at its History.http://fcit.usf.edu/florida/lessons/...m/ld_boom1.htm

we had booms but this is a bubble.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by firemed

I have to disagree and at the same time agree as strange as it sounds. But we are entering into a period of uncharted waters. Real estate is a good investment at times, but its very simple, buy low and sell high. You never assume you have the best product because time will always prove your wrong. Cash is still the best choice at this point in the game. You have to understand you never own land. Example, the Caloosa indians owned all of south Florida( or thought they did ) and then of course there's imminent domain! Just don't pay your taxes one year and see what happens. Today the debt in housing and land purchases far exceed the stocks bought on margin just before the great depression. This is global. Don't take this as a gloom and doom tactic, accept it as fact. Waterfront property is not that great. I can open my doors and look at the water every day. Theres nothing quite like the smell of red tide in the summer. So don't criticize those on the sidelines waiting for the market to correct. It's not like stocks, housing takes time to rise and fall outside the frenzy of a bubble. But I do commend you on your optimism. However smart money always utilizes caution. Thinking out of the box is the name of the game, but sometimes you realize there is no box. This is a website you should look at its History.http://fcit.usf.edu/florida/lessons/...m/ld_boom1.htm

You disagree and at the same time agree - I appreciate your honesty about that.

I’m not exactly criticizing those who wait on the sidelines – those waiting to “buy low” are opportunist and I’m all about opportunity however opportunity just doesn’t come to your door because you are you! Those who are waiting for the market to correct and who have resigned themselves to rent because they feel housing is unaffordable or it should be cheaper are doing little to find affordable/cheaper housing… It almost sounds like some expect to get a great deal just handed to them nice and easy Fedexed to their front door.

Instead of renting on the beach watching the waves like some, wouldn’t one’s time be better spent fixing up a dump in a nice area and capitalizing on sweat equity? Now that’s an opportunity! Opps I forgot… the play station generation doesn’t get their hands dirty and sweat… well thats beneath many people today and I’m not talking everyone I know there are plenty of hard workers but that work ethic is changing and not for the better with each generation.

Agreed cash is king right now… wish I had more I’d be scouring every nook and cranny for a deal [in housing of course]

Several theorize that because renting is cheaper (at the moment) it means that housing prices must fall to realign. Has anyone though that this realignment could come in the form of higher rents instead of lower home prices. Today’s Consumer price index shows that rents paid by tenants, as well as owner's equivalent rent -- what a homeowner would have to pay to rent comparable living space -- each rose 0.4% from September. This is in line with economic forecasts for rent increases of 5.3% over the next year

I too (as previously stated) live on the water but I’m not a boater or fisherman so there’s no great advantage to me being here except… as I was taking a break earlier today from remolding my master bath I stood on my dock and watched manatee in the water behind my house - PRICELESS - PS sweat equity is STILL a great thing even when my bones fell like ****later).

Ps nice story on 1920's vintage FLA

[Need_affordable_home]

Originally Posted by SunnyDog

The old multiplier of 2.5 times gross annual income is dead. Lower interest rates helped kill it, as well as the fact that with more people spending far more than 2.5 times income, prices have been inflated beyond reach of those looking to spend 2.5 times income. Also it varies upon the individual. If you have no debt, dependants, car or cc payments than you can afford to spend a higher portion of your income than someone who does, there really isn't a hard+fast rule on % of income one can spend on housing. Some can afford spending 40% of gross on housing while others can only do 15%.

Low interest rate saves you a little on the mortgage but theres property taxes, insurance, HOA and other expenses of home ownership.

Originally Posted by SunnyDog

You see the "American Dream" is different for everybody. One of my dreams is to live on the beach in South Florida and enjoy all it has to offer. I'm just happy to be here any way I can--rent, buy, whatever. Buying is a financial decision, not a dream, and patience, planning, and prudence are on my side. Like buying versus leasing a car. I've decided where I want to live life, and now I'm doing what it takes to live here. If what I'm doing now stops working, then I will do something different to continue living here. I don't let the tail wag the dog.

If renting is what you want, this is your money and choice in life. Enjoy your intracostal oceanview 1/1 luxury high rise condo. If that stops working for you, theres always relocation, maybe another rental or if prices go down enough, perhaps ownership

Originally Posted by SunnyDog

Own or not, do you live on the beach? If not you're not living my dream. Again, the rent vs buy ratios are far out of whack, even a realtor I know in my bldg. who 2 years ago was trying to get me to buy (had creative financing tricks for me) now tells me to stay a renter for now, even her own daughter is selling her home to rent because she can't afford the carrying costs. If you can't see that there is a huge disparity between owning and renting costs than you got your head stuck in the beach sand. Do you even realize what the rental market is and how the costs compare to owning? The costs of owning are over double what renting is here in South Florida. Under normal markets where owning and renting have comparable costs, of course owning is better. But this isn't a normal market here due to the HOUSING BUBBLE. I'm not against buying per se as you assume, again recognize my premise that owning, at this time and in my market, is unaffordable to many and does not make good financial sense.

I agree. Your paying $1350 rent for something that costs what? $450k? $500k? That is a rent to buy ratio of about 1:350! This means Sunnydog is getting a very good deal on rent! Anything with a ratio of less than 1:200 is a bad deal. 1:250 is a so-so deal and 1:300+ is a good/great deal!

Originally Posted by ponytail

You'll never know when the bubble deflates completely. Are you waiting for a mailing? While you're busy bubble sitting, the market will start to inch up, slowly at first so maybe you won't recognize it, and you'll be left scratching your pants bottom. Buy now, when no one else is buying! Once the prices level off or start to go up then the asking price is the asking price. No more insulting low ball offers.

You'll get a much better deal now while sellers are desperate. Once the common person can see the end, the seller also will see the end and hold out for more robust times.

Even if someone misses the bottom while bubble sitting, he can keep renting or better yet just relocate and get a correctly priced house. This is what many people are doing. Houses arent overpriced everywhere. Theres many places in OH, WV and up north where houses can be had as little as $10,000 and a nice big one for $50k. Only catch is you need to be self employeed or get lucky finding any half decent job. You can live in a metro city with good jobs in states like Texas and Georgia.

[Need_affordable_home]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Sunnydog In case you didn’t see it in my last post I DO live on waterfront in a HOUSE with deep water access a few hundred feet from Tampa Bay. AND the houses in my community are going for 6 time the price of the condo you mentioned you RENT in your post. So I am living AND OWNING the dream you say you could not afford.

You were rich enough to pay several hundred thousand and now it could be worth close to a million(cheapest is $700k in your neighboorhood) Most people couldnt afford even 2000(year) house prices. They were about half of what they are at the peak of 2005(year) but adjusted for inflation, its more like 2/3 the price. Example: a $300k house in the year 2000 adjusted for inflation would come out to $400k in todays money(end of year 2006) that house costs about $600k now, outpacing inflation. It didnt matter to anyone who couldnt afford back in the year 2000.

Originally Posted by Shores9

Sunnydog because this is your reality it doesnt have to be anyone elses nor should anyone be swayed by it. You should have bought 6 years ago - if you did you wouldnt be singing the same song you'd be OWNING what you now rent.

What makes you so sure he had the money back then? He may have enough money(now) to buy at 2000(year) prices but not 2006(year) prices. But back in the year 2000, he couldnt afford a $250k condo that now costs $500k so its no different to him. He will keep renting till the landlord raises the prices then he will either rent elsewhere or relocate and buy cheap far away.

Originally Posted by Shores9

I certainly would not intentionally misguide anyone. My 1976 purchase was in a small starter home at the top of my affordably level. It wasn’t in a great area but it was a start. You rent in a great location but appreciation will likely keep you from ever owning there.

My feeling is that the easiest way for the average person to build wealth is through owning real estate.(snip too long quote)

Sunnydog will buy when the time and price are right. Today neither is right. He is bubble sitting, biding his time. As for building wealth, he is doing the same as you, the only difference is his wealth is in stocks, treasury bonds, money market, funds and other types of investments. What is so wrong with this? He has chosen to invest elsewhere, you have chosen to invest in real estate. Personally, I choose to own but not in Florida's market. I will own because I need a place to live in and I can get a big house for $50k in Ohio or WV.

Originally Posted by Shores9

Yes in fact I have… Florida had long been undervalued (thats why I moved here) and has had only one boom in the last 30 years (see FDIC report fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2005/050205fyi_table1.pdf)

Why? Because millions of people like me each year have made and are making a conscious decision to move in this direction not from only the US but from around the world. Look at the other threads. No disputing the migration patterns, even with the affordability issues here we still have net “in-migration”. Supply and demand will keep the current appreciation trend alive.

Unless of course the sun burns out or the oceans dry up or people from up north decide that more snow and higher heating bills are OK and the people in Europe can no longer get 1.5 to 5 mil euro for their small flat or 2200 sq ft house

LOL if the sun burnt out, I think its bye bye earth. If the oceans dried up, there will be mass extinctions, possibily the end of life on earth(bacteria and microscopic life may survive)

Florida may have been a little on the cheap side before I was born. My parents paid $65k for their first house 26 years ago(wasnt yet born) and adjusted for inflation, its $140k in todays money. That house is worth $280k now, which means its been appreciating an average of 5.8% a year, thanks to the bubble for raising the average. Anyway is $140k considered cheap? I wouldnt be able to afford that and there are other areas where you can get a house for a fraction of the costs.

I thought Florida is losing more people than they are gaining. I see threads everyday of people leaving Florida!

1.5 to 5 mil euro for their small flat or 2200 sq ft house?!
Is that for real? I will have to look that up. I believe London, England has the world record for the most expensive real estate per square foot at $6500 US dollars. $5m Euros is $6.4m dollars divide by 2200 square feet, thats $2909/foot. This comes out to 44.6% of the world record! Where in Europe are prices so astronomically high that the amount of space a closet occupies(8x3=24 for example) would come out to $69,816 for 24 square feet! This price is greater than the price of many houses in rural OH and WV which a 1500 square footer can be had at less than $40/foot or $60,000! That price of $2909/foot can be a hundred(100) times higher than a very inexpensive house in a less desirable location!

[Need_affordable_home]

Originally Posted by Floridamex

I don't Know about that. Big land deals tell the story. Supply & demand, running out of land, be priced out of the market, rates will go up, need to buy now, Its sounds like desperation.I dont think the migration works without money. remember the price of a home is alot for 3/4 of the US.

Considering the US median house price is a little over $200k(used to be $230k at the peak) the majority of Americans cant afford the median priced $200k+ house! Crazy, isnt it?

Originally Posted by Shores9

Big land deal do tell some of the story they points to future growth....(snip long quote).....Look at the prime areas in any part of the country. NYC is a great example – high desirability, no new land, high demand. Cali same way and now Fla is experiencing the same. Plenty of counties on the east and west coast of FLA are out of land especially near the water (within 10 miles) Are you saying that because a few players got burnt on land deals (central state or swamp) that these markets will implode?

I feel that way! I check for vacent lots in my neck of the woods(S. FL) and theres very few. In fact most of those lots used to have a house that got destroyed by hurricane, fire, vandalism or old age, others are demolished on purpose to make room for a bigger, better house. The cheapest land I can find is $150k for quarter acre that isnt in a bad area nor in argriculture zoning.
Theres no vacent land in NYC and many parts of CA. However in the far north FL and CA, theres still plenty of land quite cheap. In rural north Florida, land can be had for $10k to $30k an acre, ditto for CA. Of course its in the middle of nowhere and you need a long commute to the city. All about location, location and location!

Originally Posted by Shores9

I’m not exactly criticizing those who wait on the sidelines – those waiting to “buy low” are opportunist and I’m all about opportunity however opportunity just doesn’t come to your door because you are you! (snip long quote)

I think most who "bubble sit" dont have the money to pay todays prices. If prices dont go down, they had nothing to lose as they couldnt afford anyway. If prices go down, great! Those who can afford todays prices and not buy believe because prices are due to drop like some predict. If worse comes and prices drop drop much or at all, renting is plan B, relocating is plan C so they got their bases covered. I am not waiting for prices to drop, I couldnt afford even a 50% drop(which isnt gonna happen anywhere even half desirable) and even the rent is too expensive for my tastes so its relocation for me to an area where houses is affordable. Ill be giving up a little by living in a less desirable location(small rural town with older houses) but the last thing I want to be is "house poor"

[bale002]

Originally Posted by Need_affordable_home

I think most who "bubble sit" don't have the money to pay today's prices. If prices don't go down, they had nothing to lose as they couldn't afford anyway. If prices go down, great! ... If worse comes and prices do not drop much or at all, renting is plan B, relocating is plan C, so they got their bases covered.

That is a very good summary for probably a very high percentage of bubble sitters.

It's a big world out there and there are plenty of options, especially if you speak the language.

[SunnyDog]

Originally Posted by Shores9

I certainly would not intentionally misguide anyone. My 1976 purchase was in a small starter home at the top of my affordably level. It wasn’t in a great area but it was a start. You rent in a great location but appreciation will likely keep you from ever owning there.

My feeling is that the easiest way for the average person to build wealth is through owning real estate. If that means forgoing a nice rental on the beach and some elbow grease in a dump of a starter home (re my 1976 purchase) then at least they are on the path to wealth and with some good fortune then maybe someday that waterfront dream.

You won’t get there on the sidelines and fact about Fla is that it has become a place of great desirability. It has just seen its first boom (as difined by the FDIC) and will likely see many more.

Renting is fine – it has its benefits- no ties no headaches no responsibilities. Also no rights no appreciation no tax benefit. It takes sacrifice to own (at least in the beginning for the average person) the old saying no pain no gain applies. All I’m saying is those who opt to take the path of least resistance and rent if in-fact they had even a remote possibly to own should not be crying its unaffordable today. The story was the same 30 years ago and will be the same 30 years from now

You're either ignoring my point or don't know the South Florida market: For what I pay in rent for this great pad, I couldn't buy a crappier smaller condo in a seedy part of town miles inland. Yes the market has gotten that imbalanced owning vs renting. I'm not sitting on the sidelines timing the market, I'm doing what it takes to keep a roof over my head. And those that want homeownership in the worst way usually get it, in the worst way. Creative financing=creative foreclosure.

[SunnyDog]

[quote=Need_affordable_home;168496]You were rich enough to pay several hundred thousand and now it could be worth close to a million(cheapest is $700k in your neighboorhood) Most people couldnt afford even 2000(year) house prices. They were about half of what they are at the peak of 2005(year) but adjusted for inflation, its more like 2/3 the price. Example: a $300k house in the year 2000 adjusted for inflation would come out to $400k in todays money(end of year 2006) that house costs about $600k now, outpacing inflation. It didnt matter to anyone who couldnt afford back in the year 2000.





What makes you so sure he had the money back then? He may have enough money(now) to buy at 2000(year) prices but not 2006(year) prices. But back in the year 2000, he couldnt afford a $250k condo that now costs $500k so its no different to him. He will keep renting till the landlord raises the prices then he will either rent elsewhere or relocate and buy cheap far away.





Sunnydog will buy when the time and price are right. Today neither is right. He is bubble sitting, biding his time. As for building wealth, he is doing the same as you, the only difference is his wealth is in stocks, treasury bonds, money market, funds and other types of investments. What is so wrong with this? He has chosen to invest elsewhere, you have chosen to invest in real estate. Personally, I choose to own but not in Florida's market. I will own because I need a place to live in and I can get a big house for $50k in Ohio or WV.











Holy crap Need Affordable Home is making sense and sees the big picture.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by SunnyDog

You're either ignoring my point or don't know the South Florida market: For what I pay in rent for this great pad, I couldn't buy a crappier smaller condo in a seedy part of town miles inland. Yes the market has gotten that imbalanced owning vs renting. I'm not sitting on the sidelines timing the market, I'm doing what it takes to keep a roof over my head. And those that want homeownership in the worst way usually get it, in the worst way. Creative financing=creative foreclosure.

Originally Posted by SunnyDog

Holy crap Need Affordable Home is making sense and sees the big picture.

Sunnydog Holy c*** WE AGREE Need Affordable Home IS making sense

Your right again - SORRY - I don't know the So FLA market that well these days. knew it much better a couple yrs ago


This may not apply to you but he's got it right here too

Originally Posted by Need_affordable_home

I think most who "bubble sit" dont have the money to pay todays prices. If prices dont go down, they had nothing to lose as they couldnt afford anyway. If prices go down, great! Those who can afford todays prices and not buy believe because prices are due to drop like some predict. If worse comes and prices drop drop much or at all, renting is plan B, relocating is plan C so they got their bases covered. I am not waiting for prices to drop, I couldnt afford even a 50% drop(which isnt gonna happen anywhere even half desirable) and even the rent is too expensive for my tastes so its relocation for me to an area where houses is affordable. Ill be giving up a little by living in a less desirable location(small rural town with older houses) but the last thing I want to be is "house poor"