[firemed]

I see that in south Florida the price of homes went down. I think its still way too high. Not much selling but alot of signs up. Would like to know about other areas in Florida.

[Floridamex]

Originally Posted by firemed

I see that in south Florida the price of homes went down. I think its still way too high. Not much selling but alot of signs up. Would like to know about other areas in Florida.

This is from the palm beach post. “The prices buyers paid for the brand-new homes on Fleming Way tell the tale of what happens when a market cools. In a handful of deals during the last several months, Miami-based builder Lennar Homes slashed prices on the street by as much as 51 percent, unloading the last of its houses in the Martin’s Crossing development to select investors.”

“That means residents such as Mark and Kim Andersen, who locked in $506,400 when they signed a contract for their five-bedroom home in early 2005, are living just down the street from a nearly identical five-bedroom home that Lennar sold to another buyer for $250,000 in late October.”

Thats must make them feel good about the deal

[bale002]

Moderator cut: link not allowed
Are prices still too high? Probably. Let's see where prices are about half-way through 2007 when rates reset on some hundreds of billions in exotic mortgages (maybe up to $1 trillion by 2008) and the US may be in the midst of a slight recession or at best some very slow growth.

The other side of this probability is massive inflation to camouflauge massive debt, bringing up house prices again with it. But this is the less likely scenario, I believe.

Another scenario is simply stagnation at current levels for a couple of years.

I don't see anyone forecasting strong growth for the US in the next two years, and of course Florida has the special issue of insurance rates (I don't consider property taxes a special Florida issue since they are at similar or higher levels in many other states, it's just that the recent rises have gone beyond many homeowners' or prospective homeowners' expectations).

[seeriously]

Here's a paragraph in today's news (Nov. 20) by the National Association of Realtors:

"But David Lereah, the Realtors' chief economist, said he believed the decline in prices in formerly red-hot areas of the country was setting the stage for a rebound next year."

It is expected that once the snowbirds get here and see how much less they can buy now compared to what they were seeing last winter, there will be a mini feeding frenzy early next year.

I wouldn't sit on that bubble too long.

[seeriously]

It's easier if I just copy and paste the whole article. When you read this be careful not to confuse the drop in sales with the drop in prices. Sales fell by 34.2 in Florida. Not prices. The median price for an existing home was down 1.2 percent from a year earlier.


Moderator cut: copy write issues

[Tampa Red]

I wouldn't wait to buy based on "trends".

There are obviously lots of houses on the market in Florida and any one individual might be willing to take much less to sell.

You never know until you make an offer.

If you wait for the "trend" to hit bottom. (mythical aggregate bargain buying time), you might have forgotten about the low interest rates we now enjoy.

Bottom line, aggregate trends are only indicators. Insurance rates will settle like they did after Andrew. A bargain is a bargain. Lock in a decent rate while you can or take a chance that rates stay low and a house falls into your lap.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by firemed

I see that in south Florida the price of homes went down. I think its still way too high. Not much selling but alot of signs up. Would like to know about other areas in Florida.

I chart my own numbers (not a pre defined statistic) from MLS for Pinellas, Pasco, and Hillsborough counties.
This tells the story basically for the Tampa Bay region. In general Sales in # of units is off –Sales price is up (at least for this area)

Average price for each full month in 2006 based on sold price off all closed residential units (including single family, town home/condo, mobile/manufactured/other - for the 3 counties:
Jan $258,692 -Feb $261,131 - Mar $259,783 -Apr $261,179 - May $269,272 - Jun $283,417
July $279,364 - Aug $274,278 - Sept $263,867 - Oct $265,932

From January 1, 2006 to October 31, 2006 Total Units (re-sales) = 39,585
Type of units sold Single Family=27,559 Condo/Town Home/Villa=10,540 Mobile/Other=1,486

Average List Price = 271,703 Average Sales Price = 264,823
Average sq.ft. = 1,594 Average Bed = 3 - Average bath = 2

UNITS SOLD (NOT SALES PRICE)

Sold Units For the same period compared to prior years:
1/1/05 > 10/31/05 52,476
1/1/04 > 10/31/04 45,667
1/1/03 > 10/31/03 40,557
1/1/02 > 10/31/02 32,989

% change Sold Units For the same period compared to prior years:
Yr 2006 sales were below 2005 by 24.6%
Yr 2006 sales were below 2004 by 13.3%
Yr 2006 sales were below 2003 by 2.4%
Yr 2006 sales were above 2002 by 20%


The information is deemed accurate but is not guaranteed. The last 4-5 lines give a historical perspective (on sales pace of units sold).

[bale002]

Unfortunately the moderator cut not only a link, which I intended as a public service, but an entire paragraph, and so along with it the entire sense of the post.

The point is that there are online tools that allow anyone to track the price and tax history of any property, and current market performance (days on market, price reductions, HOA fees if any, etc.) of properties currently on the market for certain communities in Florida (plus elsewhere in the US), in fact more and more of them as time goes on.

Now, armed with such data, combined with knowledge of current economic conditions and the general market trend, as well as other factors, one can make a better-informed decision on individual properties, such as whether to bid and how much, on a case-by-case basis, certainly.

In this sense, then, the original post is in agreement with some of the ensuing posts above.

[Floridamex]

Originally Posted by verobeach

Here's a paragraph in today's news (Nov. 20) by the National Association of Realtors:

"But David Lereah, the Realtors' chief economist, said he believed the decline in prices in formerly red-hot areas of the country was setting the stage for a rebound next year."

It is expected that once the snowbirds get here and see how much less they can buy now compared to what they were seeing last winter, there will be a mini feeding frenzy early next year.

I wouldn't sit on that bubble too long.

Lereah has been wrong in the past two years on everything he said. Why would he be right now? And if I remember he has skin in the Florida Market.

[lonelychicagoan]

if you think real estate is expensive in south florida, try taking a look at du page county, illinois!