[bale002]

Originally Posted by chopchop0

Nice change in the spaghetti lately....

It appears that some websites update spaghetti plots more often than the NHC website updates its three-hourly forecast cones and around six-hourly discussions.

As for Miami-Dade County, the latest that I see forecast landfall either around South Miami Ave between Brickell and Coconut Grove or across Key Biscayne, Virginia Key and into the inter coastal between Miami Beach and downtown Miami.

Of course that could change several times over the next 2-3 days, but if it holds, the middle swathe of the County should be relatively okay, but the coast could suffer major coastal surge along with the wind, and so major damage, the most populated and expensive area of Evacuation Zone A for which a mandatory evacuation order has already been issued.

Most of the other so-called spaghetti trajectories are just off the east coast, but that still implies major storm surge for Miami Beach and other coastal communities. Wind speeds at peak, around Sunday between 7AM to 1PM, could range from 75 mph to 150 mph.

There are still several so-called spaghetti trajectories that go west of the tip of Florida.

[James Bond 007]

The NAM has taken a turn for the worse - MUCH worse! Much farther west than previous runs.

[njkate]

Originally Posted by floridarebel

I hope she goes to the west part of FL. Could use a good one.

Wow just wow, how could you hope this storm goes anywhere except far out to sea?

[Ghengis]

Originally Posted by convextech

Some folks like to play their own weatherman game and watch the different models come in.

I'm with you; I'll listen to the people that have degrees in meteorology.

ahh...we're talking hurricanes here not meteors

[AnotherTouchOfWhimsy]

Originally Posted by chopchop0

Nice change in the spaghetti lately....

What is the NVGI? That outlier has it coming right toward me...

[bale002]

Regarding Miami-Dade County, National Hurricane Center at 11AM is forecasting eye of hurricane path for Sunday morning a bit further east, just outside Biscayne Bay in the Atlantic Ocean. With maximum just offshore winds of 145 mph, this sets up storm surge as a greater threat to the coastal communities than actual wind speeds on land, with eventual landfall near Boca Raton in Palm Beach County. Indeed, the NHC has issued a storm surge watch for all the coastal swath of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties, as well as coastal communities to the west past Naples and just up to Bonita Springs.

At 11AM only two spaghetti strands show landfall in Miami-Dade County and only five in a westerly direction through or around the southern tip of Florida. The rest are further east in the Atlantic Ocean, which would be the best scenario for all of us folk here.

Good Luck!

[Ghengis]

good luck all from a former resident of Putnam and Volusia Counties

[PBToast]

Posting this here although most of you probably saw it, just in case.
From NOAA.

A sobering Local Statement from MFL: Local Statement for Irma (Miami, FL)
Here is some of it:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include: - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. * SURGE: Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts across coastal Collier, Mainland Monroe, coastal Miami-Dade counties including Biscayne Bay. Potential impacts in this area include: - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible. - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded. Also, prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant to extensive impacts across immediate coastal Broward and Palm Beach counties.

[chopchop0]

Close yours inside doors

https://disastersafety.org/ibhs-news...urricane-irma/

[AndreaSoup]

Nothing to add, just wishing your Floridians well. Stay safe.

I think of all the places in FL that I love and I am so saddened to think that Irma might destroy them