[Hero]

It's bottom only when Lawrence Yun says it is

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by Hero

It's bottom only when Lawrence Yun says it is

I'll take that as an, "I don't know".

[markas214]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

Anyone?

So many opinions in here I figured someone would chime in.

A bottom could last for months or years. We won't know we've hit it until a year or two or more after.

[Hero]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

I'll take that as an, "I don't know".

No, I was being sarcastic. I believe Mr. Yun as much as I believe Baghdad Bob.

There are innumerable factors into determining when prices are at bottom including:

1. employment
2. inventory
3. salary
4. rent prices
5. when baby boomers are retiring
6. banks running out of cash
7. interest rates

etc...

If data shows that market is poised to fall further, suggesting that the market is at the bottom to entice buyers after a few months of "stability," is misleading.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by Hero

It's bottom only when Lawrence Yun says it is

cheeky lol

[58robbo]

don't know. i still think that the majority of the country is still stuck in boom psyche! by that i mean that we have had a RE boom for so long, without a meaningful correction, that people see this as a temporary blip. many have only seen prices go up for as long as they can remember and believe this is just the way it is!

personally i think one of two things will happen:

either several major banks will go down the tubes with exposure to overpriced mortgage defaults, which will create a chain effect! RE inventories will go through the roof and you will have true 'no reserve auctions'. this will bring the price of RE down in line with everything else.

or

the fed will continue to bail the banks out with huge cash injections. this increase in money supply will devalue the dollar and drive inflation to bring the prices of everything else up in line with RE!

i'd hazzard a guess and say that the powers that be have already made up their minds! just check at the price of everything else!

what i do believe however is that at some point the fed will have to put the brakes on to curb 'hyper inflation' or 'zimbabwe syndrome'. that will come when we start to see houseprices re-entering the boom cycle. then we will see paul volcker tactics coming to town. ie intereset rate hikes

in real terms we will probably see prices go down another 20% but not much further, unless you find a really distressed seller. prices will probably stay that way for a long time. i really do see the recent boom as a once in a century boom!

that is MY OPINION!

[deep-blue-water]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

Anyone?

So many opinions in here I figured someone would chime in.

maybe when its a better deal to buy then rent again?

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by 58robbo

don't know. i still think that the majority of the country is still stuck in boom psyche! by that i mean that we have had a RE boom for so long, without a meaningful correction, that people see this as a temporary blip. many have only seen prices go up for as long as they can remember and believe this is just the way it is!

personally i think one of two things will happen:

either several major banks will go down the tubes with exposure to overpriced mortgage defaults, which will create a chain effect! RE inventories will go through the roof and you will have true 'no reserve auctions'. this will bring the price of RE down in line with everything else.

or

the fed will continue to bail the banks out with huge cash injections. this increase in money supply will devalue the dollar and drive inflation to bring the prices of everything else up in line with RE!

i'd hazzard a guess and say that the powers that be have already made up their minds! just check at the price of everything else!

what i do believe however is that at some point the fed will have to put the brakes on to curb 'hyper inflation' or 'zimbabwe syndrome'. that will come when we start to see houseprices re-entering the boom cycle. then we will see paul volcker tactics coming to town. ie intereset rate hikes

in real terms we will probably see prices go down another 20% but not much further, unless you find a really distressed seller. prices will probably stay that way for a long time. i really do see the recent boom as a once in a century boom!

that is MY OPINION!

that is whats going on now hence high gas prices.

[Ten]

Originally Posted by 58robbo

personally i think one of two things will happen:

either several major banks will go down the tubes with exposure to overpriced mortgage defaults, which will create a chain effect! RE inventories will go through the roof and you will have true 'no reserve auctions'. this will bring the price of RE down in line with everything else.

or

the fed will continue to bail the banks out with huge cash injections. this increase in money supply will devalue the dollar and drive inflation to bring the prices of everything else up in line with RE!

A wise post. Actually, both are occurring as we speak: The global credit market is in the throes of writing down a trillion dollars -- replete with small banks going bust and large ones getting the fiat-dollar bailout -- and the Fed is indeed playing Russian Roulette with the positive feedback-effects of printing/debasing the dollar into oblivion.

Consider that home inventories are skyrocketing again (the eye of the housing hurricane appears to have come and gone) and the Fed is at 2% interest rate and probably biting it's nails bloody. Helicopter Bernake has little wiggle-room.

The dollar is unhinging from it's former status as global currency. Among other things, the Saudis (yes, the Saudis) are acquiring stake in US banking while the ME expands to amazing wealth. I wonder if the way things are going, we'll face another scenario where overseas buyers will again acquire a pile of US real estate...

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by markas214

A bottom could last for months or years. We won't know we've hit it until a year or two or more after.

OK, I can live with that.
I was just wondering how some of these people that say we won't hit bottom till 2009, 2010, 2011 etc. will figure out when we are there.