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Old 06-13-2008, 11:07 PM
 
Location: Reality
1,050 posts, read 1,924,437 times
Reputation: 259

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73,000 homes lost to foreclosure in May

Quote:
Florida recorded over 37,000 filings and 4,300 bank repossessions. Nine of the top 10 cities with the most foreclosure filings were in either Florida or California.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/13/real_estate/foreclosures_may/index.htm?postversion=2008061308
doesn't look we're at bottom yet...

 
Old 06-22-2008, 07:57 AM
 
1,233 posts, read 1,214,251 times
Reputation: 452
Mike P. I am actually 55 yrs old. As such I have seen a lot of RE markets come and go. Bought my first property in 1978 after college. I also held a valid Fl. RE license back then. So did something like 1 out of every 7 people in the state. It took the avg. real estate person something like 3 tries to pass the exam back then. Maybe that explains a lot.

With all of the interest rate resets still due to trigger and in light of the fact that the banks are backlogged, ect., I cannot imagine that this mortgage problem will disappear anytime soon. Seems that we are about half way thru the second year of sub prime ARMs. Given another 1 and a half years to get to the end of them and then adding another 6-12 months for the foreclosure process paperwork delays, I would imagine that we will see the end of short sales in another 2+ yrs or so. Maybe that is the bottom.

Now, most of what I am referring to is in the Florida RE marketplace, and a few other national markets, particularly those markets that experienced the largest gains. These are the problem areas. I do not believe that mainstream America RE will be as adversely affected.

With respect to Florida I believe that we will see the RE bottom around late fall of 2010 or so. I then expect another year or so of relatively flat sales with prices beginning to firm up to at least above the short sale money. After that, I believe that home prices will outrun inflation for a bunch of years. If existing homeowners can hold onto their properties for 7-10 more years they will probably do OK. They may even profit.

The baby boomer retirees will be coming down here. If the state gets a state income tax and gets their greedy tax hands off of properties, then the market will probably grow strongly. Couple that with property insurance reform and the market will probably smoke.

Florida needs to pass an amendment to the state constitution limiting the amount of tax increases that they can charge the citizens without a special vote. Check out the Bruce amendment in Colorado. They treated Bruce like a crank. They also passed the amendment and Colorado does not have the tax ripoff problems that Florida has suffered thru. Trust the politicians to do the right thing and they will empty your wallet. Maybe that is why some people refer to it as Floriduh.
 
Old 06-25-2008, 11:52 AM
 
11 posts, read 32,490 times
Reputation: 17
Default want to find this thread later more easily

so . . . bump!
 
Old 06-25-2008, 03:37 PM
 
3,566 posts, read 3,719,388 times
Reputation: 1364
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtimer2 View Post
Mike P. I am actually 55 yrs old. As such I have seen a lot of RE markets come and go. Bought my first property in 1978 after college. I also held a valid Fl. RE license back then. So did something like 1 out of every 7 people in the state. It took the avg. real estate person something like 3 tries to pass the exam back then. Maybe that explains a lot.

With all of the interest rate resets still due to trigger and in light of the fact that the banks are backlogged, ect., I cannot imagine that this mortgage problem will disappear anytime soon. Seems that we are about half way thru the second year of sub prime ARMs. Given another 1 and a half years to get to the end of them and then adding another 6-12 months for the foreclosure process paperwork delays, I would imagine that we will see the end of short sales in another 2+ yrs or so. Maybe that is the bottom.

Now, most of what I am referring to is in the Florida RE marketplace, and a few other national markets, particularly those markets that experienced the largest gains. These are the problem areas. I do not believe that mainstream America RE will be as adversely affected.

With respect to Florida I believe that we will see the RE bottom around late fall of 2010 or so. I then expect another year or so of relatively flat sales with prices beginning to firm up to at least above the short sale money. After that, I believe that home prices will outrun inflation for a bunch of years. If existing homeowners can hold onto their properties for 7-10 more years they will probably do OK. They may even profit.

The baby boomer retirees will be coming down here. If the state gets a state income tax and gets their greedy tax hands off of properties, then the market will probably grow strongly. Couple that with property insurance reform and the market will probably smoke.

Florida needs to pass an amendment to the state constitution limiting the amount of tax increases that they can charge the citizens without a special vote. Check out the Bruce amendment in Colorado. They treated Bruce like a crank. They also passed the amendment and Colorado does not have the tax ripoff problems that Florida has suffered thru. Trust the politicians to do the right thing and they will empty your wallet. Maybe that is why some people refer to it as Floriduh.
I used to think that the boomers would flock to Florida upon retirement. Now I'm not so sure. I think for many the bloom is off the rose, so to speak. Hurricanes and related insurance problems will likely be a deterrence to many. Also other states are competing very effectively for these retirees. And also I suspect that the boomers are not going to be as flush as previous retirees. So if people are counting on the boomers to soak up the excess housing it may not happen.
 
Old 06-25-2008, 05:50 PM
 
17,455 posts, read 38,845,424 times
Reputation: 24080
I personally feel Florida will still get MANY boomers, especially from more expensive states like the NE and California.

There are still many bargains to be had, and if one comes with an income or pension, or cashes out a home they will do fine.

This place is still paradise and a bargain compared to many others, I am a native and I'm staying here. I realize it's not for everyone, but my point is, a lot of boomers and retirees WILL see the value and appeal and come here.

That, of course, is only what this gypsy sees in her crystal ball right now.
 
Old 06-25-2008, 08:10 PM
 
Location: Miami
6,853 posts, read 22,371,803 times
Reputation: 2957
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hero View Post
73,000 homes lost to foreclosure in May



doesn't look we're at bottom yet...
Nope March/April 2009 will be the bottom people are saying.
 
Old 06-26-2008, 06:28 AM
 
Location: Reality
1,050 posts, read 1,924,437 times
Reputation: 259
I'm leaning towards oldtimer2 at 2+ years at least to hit "bottom." Once there, with the huge inventory, it'll stay "at bottom" for many years.
 
Old 06-26-2008, 07:01 AM
 
Location: SE Florida
9,367 posts, read 25,131,120 times
Reputation: 9449
Hopeful signs- have several properties under contract at a condo where I work and several building tradesmen that I have called to have work done are telling me that they are busy with new construction.
 
Old 06-26-2008, 09:03 AM
 
132 posts, read 425,759 times
Reputation: 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hero View Post
I'm leaning towards oldtimer2 at 2+ years at least to hit "bottom." Once there, with the huge inventory, it'll stay "at bottom" for many years.

Correct... people think the market will hit some sort of bottom and magically bounce right back up to past levels... it will have to bump-bottom for a while to establish a new starting point.

With the economy the way it is reducing demand and a huge inventory with many more foreclosures still to come, it will be a while before prices start rising again.
 
Old 06-26-2008, 10:54 PM
 
42 posts, read 213,909 times
Reputation: 27
I agree 20% down is a rediculous request.
Quote:
Originally Posted by crystalblue View Post
that would prevent many non-homeowners from ever buying a place in many of Americas larger cities.

in Cali, 20% of 600k is 120k, just for a downpayment

and if the avg family in Cali is making 100k a yr (to be very generous), then they could only afford a home for 300k tops.

not many of those left.
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