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Guesses? James Hansen first warned Congress about the disastrous consequences of man-made climate change and was ruthlessly attacked by the fossil fuel industry and others. His models have proved prescient, and we now face an escalating crisis of epic proportions. And still man-made climate change deniers obfuscate, and ignore the substantial empirical evidence that scientists have collected to explain the changes. The Republicans under Trump even have made concerted efforts to silence the climate change scientists, just as Rick Scott did in Florida; this is no different than the Catholic Church's persecution of Galileo for arguing that the empirical evidence showed that the earth was not the center of the Universe.
Given the weight of empirical evidence that man-made global warming, of the oceans more than the atmosphere to date, is taking hold with a vengeance, how can any open-minded individual refer to man-made climate change deniers as anything but "ignorant." Only an ignorant person could ignore the massive ice melt taking place across the globe, and the measured, unprecedented warming of the ocean, even the deep ocean in a period of decades, and attribute it to natural causes.
<<More than 90 percent of the heat trapped by greenhouse gas pollution since the 1970s has wound up in the oceans, and research published Monday revealed that a little more than a third of that seafaring heat has worked its way down to depths greater than 2,300 feet (700 meters).>>
How many times do we need to post articles such as this, based on research using actual temperature measurements, before man-made climate changer deniers abandon their muddled, and yes, ignorant rhetoric.
"Homo sapiens" means "wise man," and yet we are willing to sacrifice wonderous natural environments, such as Florida, over a period of less than a century, rather than use alternative technologies and implement social contracts, all of which are well within our grasp, in order to prevent the destruction of our environment. Again, pathetic.
Government leaders in southern Florida, both Republican and Democratic, are now forced to deal with the ramifications of man-made climate change, with conditions becoming more dire with each passing decade, yet we still must deal with climate change deniers, who now control both the Presidency, Congress, and Florida state government.
I do not disagree about the changes occurring, just the guesses made. I have researched this many times and can find disagreement from scientists of good repute.
Again it is occurring, but in the multitude of studies I have researched the change goes from a few millimeters by the end of the century to many feet and all based on good research. No one knows for sure.
Politicians have once again managed to degenerate the scientific debate of — if and how much humans impact climate — into a ideological war, and worse, in a emotionally charged pissing match.
I find it ironic that people who claim that “science is settled. No more debate” bring up Galileo as if he would be in their corner. In fact Galileo was the opposite. He “denied” the settled science of flat earth.
Again it is occurring, but in the multitude of studies I have researched the change goes from a few millimeters by the end of the century to many feet and all based on good research. No one knows for sure.
Baloney. Please post the link to the research showing a change of only a few millimeters. It's very unlikely to be any peer-reviewed research, or even research produced by a reputable climate change scientist(s).
There may not be certainty about the exact amount of sea rise in coming decades.
However, there is certainty about the amount of sea rise in recent decades, about the fact that the rate of sea level rise is increasing, and, most importantly about the reality of the man-made cause of the sea level rise.
Similarly there are empirical measurements showing the warming of the oceans, the acidification of the oceans, and the extent of ice melt in the Arctic, Greenland, etc.
Your "guesstimate" thesis IMO is a calculated form of disingenuousness with the sole intention of discrediting the reality of man-made climate change and the ever more critical nature of the crisis that we are inflicting upon ourselves.
Persons on the front lines of man-made climate change, whether southern Florida mayors or German farmers, are under no delusions about the reality of man-made climate change.
<<In Germany, record temperatures and no rainfall since early April have led to a drought and thousands of farms are facing bankruptcy because of crop failure.>>
Baloney. Please post the link to the research showing a change of only a few millimeters. It's very unlikely to be any peer-reviewed research, or even research produced by a reputable climate change scientist(s).
There may not be certainty about the exact amount of sea rise in coming decades.
However, there is certainty about the amount of sea rise in recent decades, about the fact that the rate of sea level rise is increasing, and, most importantly about the reality of the man-made cause of the sea level rise.
Similarly there are empirical measurements showing the warming of the oceans, the acidification of the oceans, and the extent of ice melt in the Arctic, Greenland, etc.
Your "guesstimate" thesis IMO is a calculated form of disingenuousness with the sole intention of discrediting the reality of man-made climate change and the ever more critical nature of the crisis that we are inflicting upon ourselves.
Persons on the front lines of man-made climate change, whether southern Florida mayors or German farmers, are under no delusions about the reality of man-made climate change.
<<In Germany, record temperatures and no rainfall since early April have led to a drought and thousands of farms are facing bankruptcy because of crop failure.>>
Do fuller research and avoid thsoe found on non scientific sights, especially if they bring politics into the equation.
Again I do not deny change is occurring, just how much in the coming years no one knows because change means things change. Likely to get worse, yes, but how bad cannot be known. Is it causing damage, yes as you noted, just look at CA. However it also looks like FL has had more rain this year than normal, though I have not bothered to check it. Again I agree change is occurring and for the worse. How much will occur is just an estimate/guess.
Again it is occurring, but in the multitude of studies I have researched the change goes from a few millimeters by the end of the century to many feet and all based on good research. No one knows for sure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by expatCA
Do fuller research and avoid thsoe found on non scientific sights, especially if they bring politics into the equation.
Again I do not deny change is occurring, just how much in the coming years no one knows because change means things change. Likely to get worse, yes, but how bad cannot be known. Is it causing damage, yes as you noted, just look at CA. However it also looks like FL has had more rain this year than normal, though I have not bothered to check it. Again I agree change is occurring and for the worse. How much will occur is just an estimate/guess.
I've posted links to reputable scientific sources of estimates of future South Florida sea level rise, including those of the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (see post 184). You've posted no links, just pretentious gobbledygook.
E.g., in your post 191, you said that you saw an estimate of only 2 millimeters of sea rise by the end of century. Now you're implying that you saw this on a "scientific sight [sic]," even though you're obviously unable to produce a link to substantiate your claim.
With sea levels in South Florida already increasing much greater than 2 millimeters ANNUALLY, it's preposterous that any scientist was predicting only a 2 millimeter increase by the end of century, unless that fringe scientist was counting on a major asteroid hit or a major nuclear war.
All you're doing is engaging is man-made climate change denying double-talk. Pathetic.
I've posted links to reputable scientific sources of estimates of future South Florida sea level rise, including those of the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (see post 184). You've posted no links, just pretentious gobbledygook.
E.g., in your post 191, you said that you saw an estimate of only 2 millimeters of sea rise by the end of century. Now you're implying that you saw this on a "scientific sight [sic]," even though you're obviously unable to produce a link to substantiate your claim.
With sea levels in South Florida already increasing much greater than 2 millimeters ANNUALLY, it's preposterous that any scientist was predicting only a 2 millimeter increase by the end of century, unless that fringe scientist was counting on a major asteroid hit or a major nuclear war.
All you're doing is engaging is man-made climate change denying double-talk. Pathetic.
1- Based on your link, NASA has calculated a 3" sea level rise for 23 years (1992-2015). Which is 3.3 millimeter per year.
Yet the SE FL Compact figures 6-10" for the next 15 years (2015-2030)?! Which is about 10-16 mm per year!!
That is -- 3 to 5 TIMES more, as if something huge happened in 2016!! Seriously?
2- Furthermore, I will cite "Projected sea level rise, especially by 2060 and beyond, has a significant range of variation as a result of uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions and their geophysical effects, the incomplete quantitative understanding of all geophysical processes that might affect the rate of sea level rise in climate models and the limitations of current climate models to predict the future"
Which means -- they can't predict, given the many variables. Which kinda makes sense.
1- Based on your link, NASA has calculated a 3" sea level rise for 23 years (1992-2015). Which is 3.3 millimeter per year.
Yet the SE FL Compact figures 6-10" for the next 15 years (2015-2030)?! Which is about 10-16 mm per year!!
That is -- 3 to 5 TIMES more, as if something huge happened in 2016!! Seriously?
Do you really believe this statement??? I can't decide if man-made climate change deniers, given all of the evidence on the table, are just determined obfuscators and prevaricators, or just plain dumb. Did you even read the 2015 report of the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, which I've repeatedly linked???
See the chart on page 5 of the report. It shows the increasingly level of sea level rise in South Florida (Key West) historically since 1992 and an estimated range of sea level rise through 2100. What climate change and ocean scientists are reporting is an ocean, due to global ice melt and thermal expansion, which is warming, expanding and rising at an accelerating rate. Nothing is happening in a single year, except increased evidence of man-made climate change, such as increasingly warmer ocean and atmospheric temperature readings, and the appearance of historically abnormal weather events (such as this year's SUMMER-LONG absence of rainfall in a large swath of Germany).
<<In Germany, record temperatures and no rainfall since early April have led to a drought and thousands of farms are facing bankruptcy because of crop failure....
Tim Knobloch and his son till the fields on their 600-acre farm in Lower Saxony. The soil they're cultivating is some of Germany's richest, but this year it's turned to dust and, as a result, yields are down.>>
It's encouraging that you were able to calculate the average annual recorded sea level rise increase for a 23-year historical period, and the estimated range of increases for a prospective 15-year period, and note the astonishing differences. It's discouraging that you weren't able to comprehend that the differences were due to an exponentially increasing rate of sea level rise, and not any event that occurred in a single year.
More astute individuals follow these events with an increasing sense of dread, even sorrow, and complete disdain for President Trump, his Republican political enablers, and climate change deniers. When we should be engaging in a full-court press to ameliorate the impact of man-made climate change, both domestically and diplomatically, we literally are throwing fuel on the fire and engaging in a national self-delusion.
When (I don't say "whether" because mounting reality eventually will knock sense into Floridians) Florida finally grasps the impact on their state, one of the most impacted by man-made climate change and one of the most politically influential of America's swing states, and rejects and condemns climate-change denying politicians, then perhaps we'll begin to use our brains and resources as a nation in an attempt to salvage what will be left of our environment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry10
2- Furthermore, I will cite "Projected sea level rise, especially by 2060 and beyond, has a significant range of variation as a result of uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions and their geophysical effects, the incomplete quantitative understanding of all geophysical processes that might affect the rate of sea level rise in climate models and the limitations of current climate models to predict the future"
Which means -- they can't predict, given the many variables.
This is simply absurd logic. Historically, scientific projections of the impact of man-made climate change have been prescient.
So scientists since at least 1988 have been using empirical measurements to project the impact of man-made climate change and warning the rest of us about the dire results. Personally, I dismissed the warnings until about 2000 when the astonishing impact became evident to me in northern Ohio (where I live in a major "lake effect" snow belt) as well as across the globe. In 2018, the impacts are much more obvious and dire (I worry about the loss of many sources of ocean protein, threats to global agriculture production in the future, and also about the immense environmental degradation of our great natural wonders, both locally, in our national park system, even globally). I live in a region of great sugar maple trees, with a celebrated maple sugar season. Already the maple sugar industry is in decline as maple sugar production falls with shortening and warming winters, and scientists predict that sugar maples will be gone from northeastern Ohio by 2100. Just one of many personal observations that informs and saddens me.
Surely, long-time Floridians have observed significant environmental degradation in their state.
Entire ocean nations are in the process of disappearing, the Arctic ice sheets are disappearing, ocean fisheries increasingly are impaired (often by ocean acidification as well as warming oceans), and still climate change deniers muddle, obfuscate, and surely lie (Marco Rubio and Rick Scott simply are not unintelligent persons; I can't say the same thing about Donald Trump's current mental state).
Yes, there is a range of possibilities. Personally, myself and some scientists believe that the outlook is much worse and perhaps more immediate than projected by climate change scientists, who tend to be conservative in their projections.
One such worried scientist is Harold Wanless, chairman of the geology department as the Univ. of Miami. He warns that a massive meltwater pulse is beginning as the result of the rapid collapse of Greenland's glaciers. He suggests that current south Florida sea level rise projections have not contemplated this phenomenon. See post 11 in this thread.
BTW, not discussed in the above article, a massive meltwater pulse has the potential to slow or even shut down the Gulf Stream, resulting in even warmer ocean and atmospheric temperatures in the tropics and Florida. Scientists are attempting to comprehend the many variables at work, but they depend upon funding for increased empirical observations.
<<A 2015 study hypothesized that fresh water, which increased in the northern Atlantic by more than 4,500 cubic miles (19,000 km3) between 1961 and 1995, weakened the deep water formation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, particularly after 1975. The circulation has slowed between 15 and 20 percent in the 20th century, an anomaly unprecedented over the last millennium, which suggests it is not due to natural variability....
Michael Mann, Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science at Penn State University, one of the study’s authors, noted that if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation were to totally collapse over the next few decades, it would change ocean circulation patterns, influence the food chain, and negatively impact fish populations. We would not return to very cold conditions, however, because the oceans have taken up so much heat. >>
My worry is about a significant rise in methane levels in the atmosphere, as methane is a much more impactful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, due to the ongoing melting of the global permafrost and massive methane clathrate deposits in the oceans as the deep ocean warms and absorbs a significant amount of the global warming resulting from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting man-made climate change. Scientists, as evidenced by disclaimers in many of the most important reports on climate change, have not significantly adjusted their predictions for an escalating level of methane in the atmosphere. See post 175 in this thread.
Anybody who reads articles such as the following one, likely must worry that we are not sufficiently concerned about the impact of rising levels of methane in our atmosphere. Few persons discuss methane when considering man-made climate change in comparison to carbon dioxide.
Yes there are many variables, and increasingly the variables are being incorporated into models, but many important variables such as the prospects for a northern Atlantic meltwater pulse and increasing levels of atmospheric methane likely are not adequately comprehended in the models; these two variables would accelerate southern Florida sea level rises. Yet we won't get better projections by vilifying climate change scientists and slashing their funding, disgusting policy priorities of the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans.
It perplexes many Americans how climate change deniers can assume there will be little or no impact from humanity's massive and still increasing burning of fossil fuels, even as the evidence with each passing year becomes more profound that the impacts will be disastrous.
Politicians have once again managed to degenerate the scientific debate of — if and how much humans impact climate — into a ideological war, and worse, in a emotionally charged pissing match.
I find it ironic that people who claim that “science is settled. No more debate” bring up Galileo as if he would be in their corner. In fact Galileo was the opposite. He “denied” the settled science of flat earth.
Wrong.
Galileo was persecuted for applying the scientific method by arguing that the earth was not the center of the universe, based on empirical evidence, and that the planets orbited the sun.
<<Galileo's championing of heliocentrism [planets orbit the sun] and Copernicanism was controversial during his lifetime, when most subscribed to either geocentrism [earth is the center of the universe] or the Tychonic system....[4] The matter was investigated by the Roman Inquisition in 1615, which concluded that heliocentrism was "foolish and absurd in philosophy, and formally heretical since it explicitly contradicts in many places the sense of Holy Scripture.">>
He was vilified for applying the scientific method to posit reality based on empirical observations, just as climate change deniers today discredit, if not vilify and mock climate change scientists who use empirical observations to warn us of the disastrous impacts on the environment of human activities, especially the massive and still increasing burning of fossil fuels.
All teenagers should be asked to study Galileo's life in order to grasp humanity's potential for ignorance and intolerance.
Some global warming predictions are a bit out there. I’ve seen reports estimating a 5 foot rise in sea levels by 2100.
Have you taken the time to read the referenced posts and links in post 197?
See especially post 11 in this thread:
<<Here's the take of Harold Wanless, the chairman of the geology department at the Univ. of Miami, who studies Florida sea level rises:
<<“The rate of sea level rise is currently doubling every seven years, and if it were to continue in this manner, Ponzi scheme style, we would have 205 feet of sea level rise by 2095,” he says. “And while I don’t think we are going to get that much water by the end of the century, I do think we have to take seriously the possibility that we could have something like 15 feet by then.”>>
Please read the Guardian article carefully to understand the impact of the accelerating glacier collapse in Greenland and why it so greatly concerns Wanless. Note that if the Greenland ice sheet totally melts, this alone would raise sea levels by 20 feet, but this would take millennia under current projections. Wanless warns that the Greenland ice melt rate may be much higher than currently modeled.
<< But the balance tipped dramatically between 2011 and 2014, when satellite data and modeling suggested that 70% of the annual 269 billion tons of snow and ice shed by Greenland was lost through surface melt, not calving. The accelerating surface melt has doubled Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise since 1992–2011, to 0.74 mm per year. "Nobody expected the ice sheet to lose so much mass so quickly," says geophysicist Isabella Velicogna of the University of California, Irvine. "Things are happening a lot faster than we expected.">>
Currently, the European Environmental Agency projects an upper level sea level rise of 16 centimeters (over 6 inches) due to just Greenland ice melt in the 21st century. It will be important to monitor increases in these projections in coming years, especially if the planet warms more rapidly than expected due to unanticipated increases in the level of methane in the atmosphere.
<<All recent studies indicate that the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet will increase the global sea level, with greater radiative forcing leading to greater sea level rise. Recent studies suggest an upper bound of 16 cm of sea level rise from the Greenland ice sheet during the 21st century for a high emissions scenario and somewhat lower values for lower emissions scenarios>>
The EEA also notes due to its much greater mass and due to gravitational forces, Antarctica's ice melt will have a greater impact on northern hemisphere sea levels than the Greenland melt.
In a sensible world, Florida's leading politicians, media, and other policy leaders, let alone Florida's voters, would be demanding that the federal government aggressively monitor the accelerating Greenland ice melt and continuously update projections; ditto for Antarctica. Even a 10-foot sea level rise will cripple Florida, and this sea level rise will be discounted long before it reaches this level. Instead, it would be fair to label Florida today as the "Denier" state just as Missouri takes pride as the "Show Me" state. It would likely cost the federal government a small pittance to adequately monitor ice melt projections, and accurate projections are of immense importance to Florida.
<<Florida is the U.S. state facing the gravest consequences from sea level rise. According to NASA, three feet of water will ultimately inundate land along Florida's coast based only on the warming humans have caused so far.
Sea level is threatening Florida more profoundly than elsewhere for two main reasons. First, its elevation is very low; like many areas along the U.S. Gulf Coast, much of the land sits within a few feet of high tide, ensuring that a small change in sea level is noticeable. The second is that Florida sits on a bed of limestone, which is a very porous kind of rock. Saltwater readily infiltrates and erodes the limestone, driving flooding. Seawater is also likely to push its way into freshwater systems and drinking water reservoirs in these areas. >>
If a reputable scientist, such as Wanless, has studied Florida sea level rise extensively, and notes that current sea level acceleration rate trends would suggest a 205-foot level increase by 2095, but probably in expectation of America and the rest of the world increasingly acting to mitigate man-made climate change, he thinks that the sea level rise will be only 15 feet by century-end, a 5-foot rise in sea levels should not be considered "a bit out there."
The problem is, thanks to man-made climate change science deniers, especially Donald Trump, climate deniers are successfully masking the severity of the problem. Wanless' assessment of the situation is so dire, and his explanation of his concerns so rational, there should be a massive effort to confirm or debunk his findings among Florida let alone federal policy makers.
Given my concerns over methane level increases, which I don't believe is yet adequately comprehended by climate change scientists and modelers, my fear is that Wanless is too conservative in his warnings.
And note that in 2015 the NOAA's high projection for sea level rise is for 81 inches by 2100, or over 6 1/2 feet. See the chart on page 5 here:
Just five feet of sea level rise would wipe out much of the Florida Keys and large chunks of Miami and southern Florida.
Even a few feet of sea level rise would destroy beaches and salt water marshes, the latter of which are nurseries for much ocean life.
I wonder if the Trump administration is allowing the NOAA to update these projections using objective scientific analysis. My fear is that by the time the climate change deniers no longer control federal policy, we'll find ourselves facing very serious consequences much sooner than even those concerned about man-made climate change, such as Democratic Party politicians, even are contemplating.
The reality is that most Americans have no comprehension of the mainstream man-made climate change projections, let alone the more dire warnings of scientists such as Wanless, let alone the resulting consequences for our environment and quality of life.
For Superman super hero fans, IMO we're something like the Kryptonians ignoring Kor-El's warnings about Krypton's impending doom.
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