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No conspiracy needed - rather always looking for accuracy.
Some point to a poll that says Trump is supported by 50% of African Americans. The true number is 12%, yet there is a poll that people point to.
All intelligence, human or computer, does better by using larger numbers of inputs and assigning weights to them. That's how odds work and why bookies and Las Vegas (Trump aside) rarely go broke. The House is the House.
The house says 2/3 for Nelson. If there are bets being taken those are the odds. That doesn't mean he will win....in fact, many candidates with small chances (on both sides) will win.
I think we can say that the Florida Gov and Senate could both be said to be "in play"....the political reports call it "lean Dem" right at the moment, but that can change.
Many think that Nelson is a moderate Democrat. He voted for ACA, which more people than not, like it in FL, where healthcare reins supreme. But for Vox (pretty left wing) to poll Rick Scott ahead of Nelson by 5 points -- that's puzzling, unless the sample was small.
Environment and Immigration -- Scott and Nelson are splitting along party lines. Depending on POV - one is a villain, the other an angel.
Juliana v. United States; Supreme Court refuses to halt youth lawsuit demanding transition away from fossil fuels
Even the conservative U.S. Supreme Court has refused to halt a youth lawsuit demanding that we transition our economy away from fossil fuels in order to preserve the future environment.
Florida already has a significant youth movement demanding stricter gun laws. How long before these activists also recognize that the environmental destruction of their state represents an even more intolerable threat to their future quality of life? A generation of youthful voters ever more concerned with Florida's environmental destruction may finally wrench control of Florida's politics from man-made climate change deniers.
The Supreme Court decision surely reflects the understanding of most members of the Supreme Court, most of whom have children, that man-made climate change indeed poses an existential threat to future generations of Americans. The Supreme Court justices at least wanted the legal issues aired even if it is eventually decided that the issues are not within the jurisdiction of the American court system.
This lawsuit, if allowed to proceed to fruition, may be even more significant in its 21st century repercussions than Roe v. Wade in the 20th century.
This article says the goal is to have similar lawsuits filed in all 50 states. A companion lawsuit already has been filed in Florida, but, as yet, as received little media coverage. That may change with the Supreme Court ruling on Friday.
This interview notes that, unlike in California, Florida under the Rick Scott administration hasn't spent one dollar or implemented any policies to reduce, let alone, the state's carbon dioxide emissions associated with fossil fuel burning.
Obviously, specific issues related to Florida could include destruction of Florida's great coral reef; warming oceans and water ways making toxic algal blooms, including red tide, more persistent and severe; warming oceans making hurricanes more intense and more moisture laden; all in addition to the ongoing inundation of the state with the immediate threat to coastal areas, including beaches and nature preserves, and the salt water intrusion of water supplies. These issues have been repeatedly documented in this and other threads in the C-D Florida forum.
Many think that Nelson is a moderate Democrat. He voted for ACA, which more people than not, like it in FL, where healthcare reins supreme. But for Vox (pretty left wing) to poll Rick Scott ahead of Nelson by 5 points -- that's puzzling, unless the sample was small.
Environment and Immigration -- Scott and Nelson are splitting along party lines. Depending on POV - one is a villain, the other an angel.
The strange part of Florida and "immigration" is that without the vast billions from foreigners, the economy of Florida would be really hurting. Yet another case of hypocrisy and probably some jealousy. I'm not sure what the retiree in the Villages thinks of the Brits, Russians, Brazillians and others buying multi-million dollar condos in SE Florida. My thinking is that they really don't think about it.....but are led down the path of "hating immigrants" based on propaganda.
I believe in climate change, but I don't believe it's man-made. We know ice ages have come & gone before humans existed, which prooves the Earth has had natural cooling & warming cycles that were totally unrelated to humans. Florida was totally underwater long ago, & now its not, so sea levels rise & fall naturally too (pre-human). To say these natural temp and water level fluctuations are supposed to stop simply because humans are now present is presumptious at best.
I find the idea that this warming event (so far, too short-termed to call a cycle) is man-made to be incomprehensible, and made up by egomaniacs that think humans are in the center of the Universe. The time span of human climate recordkeeping is a small sliver of time that is millions of years too short to draw any scientific conclusions. It would be like taking 1 grain of sand from Siesta Key beach then saying every beach in Florida is the same (99% quartz, fine in size, & White).
I also find that most of those pushing the man-made angle do not take much action themselves to significantly reduce the size of their own carbon footprints. They are all talk (words), no action hypocrites. The more words you see, the less action they are taking. They do nothing to actually improve the environment, but want others to live as they see fit.
It's a paranoid control disorder. They think if they can get us all to comply, they will not be afraid anymore, and they will become happier. The reality is that even if we all complied, they wouldn't feel any happier. They'd still be afraid, and unhappy. Then, they'd conjure up a new thing to be afraid of rather than acknowlege they are paranoid.
The environment is just a vessel that holds their fear. The use of the word "catastrophe" puts their paranoia on full display.
I believe in climate change, but I don't believe it's man-made.
Mini-Trump logic. Do you also believe that you have "a natural instinct for science" that trumps (pun intended) the world's best climate and marine scientists and biologists??? Do you also believe that nature will magically heal itself before the existential threat of sustained, if not increased fossil fuel burning, devastates the planet's environment and mankind?
I guess climate change deniers can't recognize a full-fledged egomaniac even when delivered on a silver platter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus
We know ice ages have come & gone before humans existed, which prooves the Earth has had natural cooling & warming cycles that were totally unrelated to humans. Florida was totally underwater long ago, & now its not, so sea levels rise & fall naturally too (pre-human). To say these natural temp and water level fluctuations are supposed to stop simply because humans are now present is presumptious at best.
I find the idea that this warming event (so far, too short-termed to call a cycle) is man-made to be incomprehensible, and made up by egomaniacs that think humans are in the center of the Universe. The time span of human climate recordkeeping is a small sliver of time that is millions of years too short to draw any scientific conclusions. It would be like taking 1 grain of sand from Siesta Key beach then saying every beach in Florida is the same (99% quartz, fine in size, & White).
I also find that most of those pushing the man-made angle do not take much action themselves to significantly reduce the size of their own carbon footprints. They are all talk (words), no action hypocrites. The more words you see, the less action they are taking. They do nothing to actually improve the environment, but want others to live as they see fit.
It's a paranoid control disorder. They think if they can get us all to comply, they will not be afraid anymore, and they will become happier. The reality is that even if we all complied, they wouldn't feel any happier. They'd still be afraid, and unhappy. Then, they'd conjure up a new thing to be afraid of rather than acknowlege they are paranoid.
The environment is just a vessel that holds their fear. The use of the word "catastrophe" puts their paranoia on full display.
Deniers, like you, repeatedly are unable to explain what happens to the ANNUAL 35 billion metric tons from fossil fuel burning that ACCUMULATES, in addition to emissions from previous years, in the earth's atmosphere and oceans. You ignore all of the empirical data and scientific research that explains the dire consequences of this unmitigated and disastrous pollution. How is that possible???
Instead deniers continue to disseminate "Big Lie," man-made climate change science denier propaganda. Even the conservative Supreme Court recognizes that environmental degradation is a material issue for future generations. See post 622 in this thread.
Once again, here are articles debunking the denier propaganda in your post.
Contrary to deniers' repeated claims, the earth is NOT cooling. The oceans, as repeatedly documented, have absorbed over 90 percent of the excess heat resulting from greenhouse gas emissions.
Deniers refuse to recognize that the massive climate change over just a few decades, and the unprecedented environmental degradation, is directly tied to carbon dioxide and other emissions associated with fossil fuel consumption, and not some natural process. With all of the empirical data and scientific research available, the repeated efforts to equate current environmental crisis with natural climate change that occurred over thousands of years and even eons is pathetically obtuse.
You repeatedly been asked your opinion about the ongoing destruction of the great Florida coral reef due to man-made ocean warming, pollution, and ocean acidification. You haven't responded, indicating a complete lack of empathy for the tens of thousands of Floridians whose livelihood is impaired, about the negative impact on Florida's fisheries and Florida's sport fishers, and the impact of the loss of one of Florida's greatest natural assets on future generations.
A lack of empathy is a prime characteristic of an egomaniac, and obviously empathy, not a lack of it, defines environmentalists, contrary to your assertion.
The sky is not falling, its just a darned Acorn. Relax, breath, inhale...exhale. You're going to be just fine.
That's just it. Unlike you, who doesn't care about even the destruction of the great Florida coral reef, let alone the other existential threats to Florida and mankind, I want future generations to be able to "relax, breath, inhale...exhale" in the marvelous world characterized by environmental wonders that has so blessed my generation
I'll likely be fine, but what about future generations of Americans, including your own progeny? If Trump and his denier supporters have their way, these future generations will live in an environmental hellhole.
The poll Fox News is reporting on is the St. Pete Times poll, NOT a Fox poll. If it turns out to be accurate, and your claims of Rick Scott being the polluter-in-chief are correct, then things are about to get much worse for Florida's environment.
Last minute polls, like this one, tend to be more accurate than polls taken earlier on in the campaign process. Also, the St. Pete Times is traditionally a left leaning media outlet.
No one can read the election in FL until it is over - notice I'm going back to the OP and the subject of the thread. But here is my take based only on the numbers and reporting......
1. First, we have slight lean in 538 that both big races are headed toward Blue. A lean doesn't mean much, but it is part of the data set.
Now, lets move onto real votes, projections for those votes - and comparison to recent history.
2. Turnout is very heavy and way up among the young. In general, turnout favors Team Blue.
"On a day when President Donald Trump rallied thousands of Republicans in Pensacola, the GOP’s ballot advantage over the Democrats shrank to six-tenths of 1 percentage point (0.6), with GOP ballots at 40.8 percent of the statewide total and Democrats at 40.2 percent"/
BTW, this different is already cut in 1/2 from two days ago and represents vastly less than 4% plus GOP advantage in the last Midterms. Also the state leans 5 point Red, so having the early ballots be even is a demerit for Red.
4. 19 Million Independents. It would seem in Florida that if you are "tribal" you would not register Indie (you want to vote in primaries and you are proud of being a Republican!). The experts say that Independents will come down heavily on the Blue end of things.
5. Full figures from the weekend are ongoing, but as seen above the weekend is turning out heavily toward Dems (souls to the polls today will likely allow them to catch the Republicans or exceed them).....
Summary - there is no statistic that looks BAD for Democrats compared to previous years. We have seen right here that some Republicans are going for Gillum, I doubt too many Dems are going for DeSantis. But that's a percent or two.
IF the political experts are correct and Sat/Sun and Election Day and Independents all have a blue advantage, the tale will be told by that. It may even be possible for one of those not to come true and STILL the Dems would get one or both of those seats.
It's that close.
I'm going to cast my lot similar to where 538 is, but I think there will be some crossover surprises. Putting it together I'd say something like this.
75% chance that we see either Gillum or Nelson Elected.
60% chance we see both elected.
60% chance Amendment 4 gets a majority, but only a 25% chance it gets over 60% needed to update Jim Crow Law.
Anybody generally with me - given the Sat. Afternoon numbers?
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Juliana v. United States; Supreme Court refuses to halt youth lawsuit demanding transition away from fossil fuels
