[aax]

Originally Posted by CrowGirl

I lived in Florida for 15 years, 5 in Martin County and 10 in Tampa. I remeber when I moved to Martine County from NEw ENdland everyone told me not to worry about hurricanes....we are rportected, they always break up over the Bahamas, etc. Five years in MArtin County and I was hit directly by three hurricanes. So I don't put much stock in what folks say about the previous 50 years or whatever. And the storms are getting more and more unpredictable.

Except Jacksonville never gets hit.

[chopchop0]

Looking like it will be a depression by the time over the Bahamas

[bgmiami]

Just remember that back on Aug. 24, 1994, Andrew was the first hurricane to hit south Dade in 27 years. Look at the destruction that caused. You can never be too complacent about hurricanes.

[Corrie22]

...and you can never trust the computer models either

[bgmiami]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

...and you can never trust the computer models either

Exactly! Andrew was suppose to hit north of Dade County and turned at the last minute. All the models had it hitting north!

[Artificial]

Not a meteorologist, just an amateur weather enthusiast here so take nothing I say with any sort of certainty. But, at this point it's very likely that at the least a tropical depression will hit Florida. It's likely it may be a tropical storm and will hit Florida. Could it be a cat 1 or cat 2, maybe -- big maybe.

With its small size it makes it hard to predict more than 2-3 days out compared to a larger system. Also with its smaller size it is more resistant to dry air and shear.

How well it does shooting the gap between Hispanola and PR will play a fairly large role on what happens. Right now, a lot of models are tracking it to shoot that gap pretty darn well. But, from there it is still largely unknown what to expect next. Come Wednesday or Thursday, we should have a pretty good idea of the impact it will have on the southeast US.

At this point, if you live in Florida, particularly along the Atlantic coast, I think it would be foolish not to have your hurricane plan ready to go and supplies stocked up.

[Corrie22]

When I went to bed....Andrew was supposed to go north of Palm Beach....I woke up when it was in my kitchen

Shooting the gap with Dorian won't make much difference...it still has to clip PR...4,000 ft....and DR...10,000 ft

For some reason Ventusky has been calling these canes spot on....I have no idea how they do it....They called Irma a week ahead of the NHC...the NHC had Irma dancing all over the place...Ventusky never wavered..and Irma did exactly what they had said it would do

Ventusky shows Dorian crossing PR on Wed.....then poof

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=19.8;-74...temperature-2m

[aax]

Evacuation plan in place. Windows boarded up.

[boxus]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

When I went to bed....Andrew was supposed to go north of Palm Beach....I woke up when it was in my kitchen

Shooting the gap with Dorian won't make much difference...it still has to clip PR...4,000 ft....and DR...10,000 ft

For some reason Ventusky has been calling these canes spot on....I have no idea how they do it....They called Irma a week ahead of the NHC...the NHC had Irma dancing all over the place...Ventusky never wavered..and Irma did exactly what they had said it would do

Ventusky shows Dorian crossing PR on Wed.....then poof

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=19.8;-74...temperature-2m

Is it "poof", or they just did not do any calculations past that date?

[chopchop0]

Originally Posted by aax

Evacuation plan in place. Windows boarded up.

Lol...