[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by SanyBelle

I'm complaining that I lost 2 weeks of pay... someone always has it worse, right?

I've lived in Florida for 25 years. This was the most hyped up forecasting I've ever seen.

It gets worse every year. I never even got a drop of rain out of it. But i told you guys this over a week ago.

[Jill_Schramm]

Originally Posted by Artificial

If the worst things you're complaining about are events being cancelled after one of the strongest hurricanes in modern history missed Florida by mere miles count your blessings and be thankful that a 1/4-1/3 of Florida's coast doesn't look like the northern Bahamas.

When you say that it “missed us by mere miles” you seem to be implying that we almost got hit. Well, we didn’t. It wasn’t even close. It looked close on the map. But in reality it was not close at all. For days, all the good models showed the storm making a sharp right (North) turn.

Here is an analogy: Seasoned Floridians aren’t afraid of gators. They know that as long as they don’t go into the water, it is perfectly safe to walk on the shore of a lake chock full of gators, even if the are close to the shore. Why? Because we know that gators don’t just jump out of the water and attack people. They don’t hunt on land. We are calm even though the big scary gator is really close because we understand gator behavior.

Similarly, we had scientific models which told us how this close, fearsome storm was going to behave and these models told us that it was that this storm was not coming to us (in Orlando) and if on the off chance it did come to us, it would have been greatly reduced in strength. It is true that predictions are not always accurate when it comes to hurricanes, but they are really very good now about the track. And if they are unsure as to the track they know their level of uncertainty.

For 4 to 5 days now there were essentially two possibilities: 1) a relatively strong Dorian would move NW parallel to the Florida coast without making landfall but still affecting coastal communities or 2) a weakened Dorian would make landfall while moving up the coast, affecting coastal communities. Those were the two options. In one case, the Orlando area was supposedly going to see 40 mph winds and a few inches or rain. In the other, we were supposedly going to see 30 mph winds and a few inches of rain. In neither case was it a matter of a life- or even property-threatening storm. Also, if you see a certain windspeed forecast, you sure as hell know it is not going to be that bad. It never is. So, we had 30mph forecast over night. I just checked the past weather data and the highest recorded overnight at the height of the storm was 24mph.


And yet in a total over-reaction, we have had closing after closing and not just for one day, but for three days in many cases. This is great news if you are going to get a free, paid vacation. It is horrible if you depend on your paycheck and you are not being paid, if you have to delay your chemo or radiation treatments because your outpatient clinic has closed, if you are conducting some important research, but are not allowed in your lab because your campus has closed.


Sometimes the treatment is worse than the disease, and, yes, that is a problem.

[aax]

Publix did well.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by SanyBelle

And Corrie, I believe because the forecasting was so terribly wrong on this one that many people are going to ignore future warnings.

you know....I thought the same thing after Andrew...and for certain after Irma....and forget all the ones in between like Georges, Irene, etc.....especially Irene....they did exactly the same with Irene..and had a major hurricane going up the center of Florida 3 days out...and Irene did exactly the same as Dorian...ended up going offshore and missed Florida completely

dunno...I think it's just the nature of the beast

..and we can't forget...their forecasts can go either way...people that went to bed, me included, thinking Andrew was out of the neighborhood....woke up with Andrew in the living room....the last report I heard was Andrew was going north of Palm Beach....they missed that forecast by over 100 miles...just a few hours out

...did the same with Dorian...it jumped 100 miles from one side of PR to the other

What they do that pisses me off....is they claim more accuracy than they will ever have..get on the news and brag about how much their models have improved....improved from what?....and 3 days out have the cone of death from Maine to Rio

...well, that's a big cone!..and it takes most people about 3 days to get ready

It's a catch 22....realize their forecasts can be 100's of miles off...in just a couple of days...and what they say today...can be total BS tomorrow

[Jill_Schramm]

In their “discussion” of their forecasting and modeling, the NHC expressly started that although their models were giving them a consensus farther to the East (away from FL and out to sea), they were keeping the cone closer to shore as an added precaution. So, with their cone, the NHC was already erring on the side of caution.

[1insider]

I, for one, am relieved to be taking my shutters down not having been hit rather than complaining that a warning of possible impact didn't deliver a damaging hit to me personally. Instead of complaining about the media coverage of an approaching storm how about y'all complainers figuring out how to do something to help people whose lives have been forever damaged.

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by 1insider

I, for one, am relieved to be taking my shutters down not having been hit rather than complaining that a warning of possible impact didn't deliver a damaging hit to me personally. Instead of complaining about the media coverage of an approaching storm how about y'all complainers figuring out how to do something to help people whose lives have been forever damaged.

What makes you assume we’re not?

[Artificial]

Originally Posted by Jill_Schramm

When you say that it “missed us by mere miles” you seem to be implying that we almost got hit. Well, we didn’t. It wasn’t even close. It looked close on the map. But in reality it was not close at all.

The state did get hit by hurricane force winds, so I'm not sure how you can say the state didn't get hit. The eye wall came within about 40 miles at one point. That's close if you ask me. Another 20 miles west and there would have been a lot more impact than there has been.

[Jill_Schramm]

Originally Posted by Artificial

The state did get hit by hurricane force winds, so I'm not sure how you can say the state didn't get hit. The eye wall came within about 40 miles at one point. That's close if you ask me. Another 20 miles west and there would have been a lot more impact than there has been.

I am sorry, I was specifically speaking of the Orlando area. Total overhyping here.

There was no risk of hurricane force winds here and only a relatively low chance of low end TS-force winds.

[bgmiami]

Originally Posted by Arcenal352

The point is that it was massively overhyped by the media, when it really shouldn’t have been. You’re missing that. The media purposefully tries to make things look worse than they are. Just tune into a news station right now, and you’ll see some clown “fighting” the strong winds on the Florida coast. Do you really not see anything wrong with creating false sense of panic?

You forget that Andrew was NOT suppose to hit South Dade. It was headed straight to Broward County and many in South Dade were unprepared when the storm hit. I'll take a false sense of panic forcing me into being prepared any day to sitting in my house while the roof blows off of it and the windows blow out. Be thankful that Dorian missed most of Florida and we are all safe!