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Old 08-11-2020, 11:00 AM
 
26 posts, read 14,074 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
Hurricanes and similar storms tend not to make landfall.

The vast majority of hurricanes live their lives at sea, long and happy, mostly unnoticed by most humans.

Those relatively few that do come near the US mainland either skirt around, or well wide of, the southern tip of Florida and into the Gulf, or they skirt up the Atlantic coast.

A quick look at the map reveals that lands on the Atlantic coast from North Carolina northwards are significantly more easterly - jutting their fat and long parts further out into the Atlantic - than any point in Florida.

History and current events clearly show that, except for the panhandle, direct hurricane hits on the Florida peninsula are relatively rare, the mid-Atlantic states and lands further up north are at noticeably higher risk.

I'm not sure, but I'd bet that insurance for buildings the outer banks of North Carolina, for example, is just as expensive as for those in Florida.
Wrong. SE FL (Dade, Broward, and PBC) is the hurricane hit capital of the U.S.

The Outer Banks get hit a lot as well, but not as many majors (Cat 3+) as SE FL.

Just because we have had a few misses last couple years does not change the fact that SE FL is the most likely place for a major hurricane to make landfall in the CONUS.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#cp100
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Old 08-11-2020, 04:53 PM
 
17,248 posts, read 11,371,840 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridaguy04 View Post
Wrong. SE FL (Dade, Broward, and PBC) is the hurricane hit capital of the U.S.

The Outer Banks get hit a lot as well, but not as many majors (Cat 3+) as SE FL.

Just because we have had a few misses last couple years does not change the fact that SE FL is the most likely place for a major hurricane to make landfall in the CONUS.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#cp100
They get the fun action while the Tampa area gets the misses time after time.
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Old 08-11-2020, 04:57 PM
 
Location: Inland FL
1,541 posts, read 942,186 times
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Florida doesn’t get hit like before the 1950s. Of course there were fewer people living here. Southeast Florida hasn’t had anything since Andrew in 1992. Tampa since 1921, 1964 for Jacksonville. Now the real epicenter is the western panhandle from Pensacola to Panama City. All this talk about climate change creating more hurricanes doesn’t seem to be happening.
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Old 08-11-2020, 05:11 PM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
7,859 posts, read 11,581,537 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridaguy04 View Post
Wrong. SE FL (Dade, Broward, and PBC) is the hurricane hit capital of the U.S.

The Outer Banks get hit a lot as well, but not as many majors (Cat 3+) as SE FL.

Just because we have had a few misses last couple years does not change the fact that SE FL is the most likely place for a major hurricane to make landfall in the CONUS.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#cp100
Likely? Likely.

Reality on the ground. Not.

Two direct hits in some 14 years. With relatively mild damage. Really.

Panhandle and other land areas off the Gulf of Mexico and further north up the Atlantic get direct hits much more often. Really.

In spite of what the statisticians are likely to say.

And I love statisticians, I really do, likely.

Really, likely.

Hurricane alley is open ocean the vast majority of the time. Really.

Last edited by bale002; 08-11-2020 at 05:24 PM..
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Old 08-11-2020, 05:19 PM
 
17,248 posts, read 11,371,840 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridarebel View Post
Florida doesn’t get hit like before the 1950s. Of course there were fewer people living here. Southeast Florida hasn’t had anything since Andrew in 1992. Tampa since 1921, 1964 for Jacksonville. Now the real epicenter is the western panhandle from Pensacola to Panama City. All this talk about climate change creating more hurricanes doesn’t seem to be happening.
But we have had some super strong 1's the last few years. The one that hit the panhandle about 2 years ago would have been the strongest ever if it had 200 more miles of water before making landfall. The gulf water temps being way above normal in the falls thanks to blazing hot Sept's and Octs it is no wonder.

And the gulf temp was 93f this week out of Clearwater. Our number is coming.
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Old 08-12-2020, 07:44 AM
 
Location: Inland FL
1,541 posts, read 942,186 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
But we have had some super strong 1's the last few years. The one that hit the panhandle about 2 years ago would have been the strongest ever if it had 200 more miles of water before making landfall. The gulf water temps being way above normal in the falls thanks to blazing hot Sept's and Octs it is no wonder.

And the gulf temp was 93f this week out of Clearwater. Our number is coming.
Category 1s are nothing, even 2s can be weak. You get afternoon thunderstorms worse than that. It used to be that south Florida got major hurricanes in October that formed in the nw Carribean and moved northeast to south Florida. Haven't had an October storm since Wilma in 2005. The storm that in Tampa in 1921 was like that too. Over last 70 years, Florida has warmed up and received fewer hurricane hits. Maybe the trough or ridging has changed.
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Old 08-12-2020, 10:49 AM
 
26 posts, read 14,074 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002 View Post
Likely? Likely.

Reality on the ground. Not.

Two direct hits in some 14 years. With relatively mild damage. Really.

Panhandle and other land areas off the Gulf of Mexico and further north up the Atlantic get direct hits much more often. Really.

In spite of what the statisticians are likely to say.

And I love statisticians, I really do, likely.

Really, likely.

Hurricane alley is open ocean the vast majority of the time. Really.

Just 14 years is not enough. When you look at all of the climatology, South FL is clearly the hit capital. Can't just think about what has happened recently as weather doesn't follow a calendar.

Yes, most Cape Verde storms do have a tendency to re curve east of the CONUS. Climo supports this.

However, out of all of the CONUS, if you had to lay money on where the next major will make landfall you have to go with south FL.

In the next 1,000 years I guarantee you that south FL will have more major hurricane hits than anywhere else in the CONUS. Yes there will be 14 year periods where they don't get anything and NC gets 6 storms. But overall S FL will get hit the most.

The Panhandle does not get hit more often. Look at the link. In the past 20 years it has but that isn't a large enough sample size.

Of majors the prone risk goes like this:

1. South FL
2. Outer Banks
3. Northern Gulf coast. (LA, MS, AL, FL Panhandle)
4. Texas.
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Old 08-12-2020, 10:54 AM
 
26 posts, read 14,074 times
Reputation: 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by floridarebel View Post
Florida doesn’t get hit like before the 1950s. Of course there were fewer people living here. Southeast Florida hasn’t had anything since Andrew in 1992. Tampa since 1921, 1964 for Jacksonville. Now the real epicenter is the western panhandle from Pensacola to Panama City. All this talk about climate change creating more hurricanes doesn’t seem to be happening.
Insane how much misinformation is in this thread....

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#cp100
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