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My research knows the best learch. Lived here all my life and kept records since the 70's and only a 1.88" rise so far. But my snow ball effect is taking place now as more ice melts and more dark earth and water soak up heat from the sun. The rate just get faster over time nate. So while now we don't see a big change that will start to change over the years. But we are good to go for our lifetimes, but peeps out past 70 years to 140 years are gonna deal with a diff world as most sea life dies out and once sea temps run away the jet stream will go away for good. Then it is lights out for everyone.
Much as with unimaginable wildfires in the West, persistent droughts that are shrinking the Great Salt Lake and increasing discussions of draining Lake Powell, disastrous heat domes in the Pacific Northwest, and now mega-tornadoes in the southeast as tornado alley moves east of the Mississippi River, coastal residents soon may deal with not accelerating sea level rise, but abrupt sea level rise. That's the consequence facing coastal residents and states with the news about the likely rapid disintegration of the ice shelf that dams the Thwaites "doomsday" glacier in Antarctica.
As noted in post 127, this ice shelf dam could shatter within 3 to 5 years.
<<Scientists have discovered a series of worrying weaknesses in the ice shelf holding back one of Antarctica’s most dangerous glaciers, suggesting that this important buttress against sea level rise could shatter within the next three to five years.>>
<<The chain reaction following the collapse of the eastern section of the glacier could threaten coastal residents around the world, many of whom may be unprepared for a sudden spike in sea level, which has risen slowly due to climate change since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution....
The Thwaites Glacier has been melting due to a combination of warm air and water temperatures, caused at least partly by climate change, making it more unstable. Between the 1980s and 2017, it lost 600 billion tons of ice. As the oceans continue to warm, the glacier is expected to become more unmoored to land, increasing its risk of collapse.
“Things are evolving really rapidly here,” Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the University of Colorado Boulder, said during Monday's news conference. “It’s daunting....”
”Each new satellite image we get, we see deeper and longer fractures,” Pettit said, adding, “What we’re seeing already is enough to be worried about. Thwaites is kind of a monster.”>>
As noted in post 127, sea level rise in this decade may increase from a fraction of an inch annually to an inch or more annually by 2020. Calving of the Thwaites glacier will add to accelerating melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the initial stages of ice melt of the massive Antarctic ice sheet.
For years scientists have worried about "abrupt" sea level rise, but now the prospect seems more closely at hand.
<<Eric Rignot at the University of California, Irvine says that study underscores the possible speed of ice sheet melt and collapse. “Once these processes start to kick in,” he says, “they’re very fast.”
The Earth has seen sudden climate change and rapid sea level rise before. At the end of the planet’s last glaciation, starting about 14,000 years ago, sea levels rose by more than 13 feet a century as the huge North American ice sheet melted. But researchers are hesitant about predicting similarly rapid climate shifts in our future given the huge stakes involved: The rapid collapse of today’s polar ice sheets would erase densely populated parts of our coastlines.
“Today, we’re struggling with 3 millimeters [0.1 inch] per year [of sea level rise],” says Robert DeConto at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, co-author of one of the more sobering new studies. “We’re talking about centimeters [2.54 centimeters per inch] per year. That’s really tough. At that point your engineering can’t keep up; you’re down to demolition and rebuilding.” >>
<<But Antarctica is vast — 1.5 times the size of the United States, with ice three miles thick in places — and holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by roughly 200 feet.
The larger, eastern half lies mostly above sea level and remains very cold; researchers have typically considered its ice stable, though even that view is beginning to change. The sizeable western half [e.g., Thwaites Glacier] of the Antarctic, by contrast, has its base lying below sea level, and holds some of the fastest warming areas on the planet. “You look at West Antarctica and you think: How come it’s still there?” says Rignot. >>
Floridian John Englander, author of "Moving to Higher Ground," explains how scientists haven't yet quantified Australia in official sea level rise estimates because of the lack of empirically derived projections. Even though this likely will change over this decade, as of now, Englander writes:
<<....Antarctica becomes an asterisk. So, unfortunately, even with good science, we’re getting bad information. Planners, architects, and engineers don’t realize that our current pathway of warming could result in a lot more sea level rise. So what’s likely? A foot or two by midcentury is now realistic, as guidance.>>
The above article shows a graph of carbon dioxide levels against global temperatures and sea level. Now at 417 parts per million, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are far higher than at any point in the last 500,000 years.
A chart in this interview (free registration required) of Englander documents the acceleration of sea level rise in recent decades (see the steepening slopes).
Sadly, natural feedback loops may overwhelm any eventual attempt by mankind to reduce greenhouse emissions, such as Arctic warming unleashing the massive amounts of methane and carbon dioxide stored in permafrost.
<<Of all the biomes with forests, the boreal forest is projected to experience the largest temperature shift. So far, temperatures have shifted up to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and by the end of the century temperatures could increase by 11 degrees Celsius—a lot for an ecosystem that is generally below freezing.>>
<<In recent years, climate scientists have warned thawing permafrost in Siberia may be a “methane time bomb” detonating slowly. Now, a peer-reviewed study using satellite imagery and a review by an international organization are warning that warming temperatures in the far northern reaches of Russia are releasing massive measures of methane—a potent greenhouse gas with considerably more warming power than carbon dioxide.>>
While methane is a much more consequential greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, just this week we're learning that nitrous oxide is even much more potent and also is being released by thawing permafrost.
<<Here the researchers studied the Lena and Kolyma Rivers in northeast Siberia, finding that as the permafrost melts along the edges of the water, it releases between 10 and 100 times the amount of nitrous oxide that would typically be expected from permafrost thaw....
Nitrous oxide is produced by microbes in the soil. While the gas isn't as abundant as carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere, it has a far more significant effect in terms of temperatures: It's almost 300 times stronger than carbon dioxide as a warming agent over a 100-year period.>>
For those of us who pay attention to the mounting empirical evidence and scientific analysis, abrupt sea level rise understandably seems inevitable, and likely initiated in this decade.
But what of the usurper? As noted in post 172, the Lord has cast him out yet again.
What were the chances? It would have to be a lot more than 100 to 1. It was likely even more than 1,000 to 1. The more he thought about it, the odds of it happening had to be more than 10,000 to 1 and even 100,000 to 1. People often threw around the chances of something happening as being 1,000,000 to 1 as an exaggeration of an unlikely event, but he could see that they may actually be accurate in this situation. Whatever the odds of it happening, he knew they were big. What he didn't know was whether this happening was lucky or unlucky.
<<The tears of a clown make my lipstick run, but my shower cap is still intact.>>
The young man wanted a role model. He looked long and hard in his youth, but that role model never materialized. His only choice was to embrace all the people in his life he didn't want to be like.
He collected the plastic trash on a daily basis. It never seemed to end. Even if he cleaned the entire beach, more plastic would cover it the next day after the tide had come in. Although it was a futile effort that would never be done, he continued to pick up the trash each day.
The clowns had taken over. And yes, they were literally clowns. Over 100 had appeared out of a small VW bug that had been driven up to the bank. Now they were all inside and had taken it over.
He sat staring at the person in the train stopped at the station going in the opposite direction. She sat staring ahead, never noticing that she was being watched. Both trains began to move and he knew that in another timeline or in another universe, they had been happy together.
There was a time and a place for Stephanie to use her magic. The problem was that she had a difficult time determining this. She wished she could simply use it when the desire hit and there wouldn't be any unforeseen consequences. Unfortunately, that's not how it worked and the consequences could be devastating if she accidentally used her magic at the wrong time.
<<The swirled lollipop had issues with the pop rock candy.>>
It was a question of which of the two she preferred. On the one hand, the choice seemed simple. The more expensive one with a brand name would be the choice of most. It was the easy choice. The safe choice. But she wasn't sure she actually preferred it.
<<There was little doubt that the bridge was unsafe. All one had to do was look at it to know that with certainty. Yet Bob didn't see another option. He may have been able to work one out if he had a bit of time to think things through, but time was something he didn't have. A choice needed to be made, and it needed to be made quickly.>>
<<He told us a very exciting adventure story.>>
A long black shadow slid across the pavement near their feet and the five Venusians, very much startled, looked overhead. They were barely in time to see the huge gray form of the carnivore before it vanished behind a sign atop a nearby building which bore the mystifying information "Pepsi-Cola."
They had made it to Las Vegas, wide-eyed and with so much hope and energy. They had planned the trip for more than a year and both were so excited they could barely control themselves. They still hadn't realized that Las Vegas promised a place where dreams come true, it was actually the place where dreams came to die.
I wish you'd send all your data to the politicians and hollywood types that own mansions along the coastlines.
They are obviously all unaware of their pending doom.
Send me a PM with their e-mail addresses and I would be glad to do so!!!
As for "pending doom," the risk of physical damage as a result of abrupt climate change is not in days, weeks, months, or likely even several years. If you read my recent posts, the scientists give the Thwaites ice shelf 3 to 5 years of remaining life before this dam collapses and speeds up the calving of the massive Thwaites glacier.
The bigger physical risk are hurricane storm surges from rapidly intensifying hurricanes for those living in coastal areas in hurricane prone locations, such as Florida.
There is a financial risk which looms over Florida. A Category 5 hurricane strike in a heavily populated area may greatly impair the Florida home insurance and commercial real estate markets. Sunny day flooding may raise flood insurance premiums. As sea level rises, the insurance risks become more pronounced, as discussed by John Englander and several other financial experts.
<<MCP: Let’s switch to insurance and finance. Because that’s a fascinating part of the book, especially for me, a resident of New Orleans, a city rebuilt by insurance.
JE: Insurance is a huge problem. Flood insurance is almost always a one-year policy. The insurance companies, underwriters and actuaries, look at the chance of flood damage during the 12 months of the policy. They really don’t care what happens a decade from now. That future risk is not built into current rates. We’ve always assumed that the last 30 years, or even the last 100 years, will tell us how things will be in the future, because we assumed that the world was what the actuaries called a stationary environment. Well, the situation is no longer stationary. The last 30 years of insurance losses no longer shows us what will happen for the next 30 years.
The problem is, we finance things over 30 to 50 years, but we insure them year to year. The banks require that we have insurance. But nobody will write you a 30-year flood policy. So there’s a mismatch. We’re loaning money, based upon the security of an asset and saying you must have adequate insurance, but in the future, the cost and even the availability of that insurance might be very different.
MCP: I think that’s what we’ll eventually see in southern Louisiana. Flood insurance that was once $2,000 might now be $10,000 a year. Suddenly they can’t afford to live there anymore, but the decision to move won’t be made by a planner or local government, but by an insurance company.
JE: And ultimately by the banks. They’re now focussed on fossil fuel supply, energy sources, and vulnerability to carbon pricing. They’re worried about a possible carbon tax. That’s where most of the concern is in the financial community at the moment. But I think what you’ll see in the next five or 10 years is that the financial sector is going to realize that the current cost of flood insurance doesn’t reflect the future risk. And that’s going to be when the problem explodes, because how do you loan somebody a million dollars for a house, or a hundred million dollars for a corporate complex, with 30-year financing, when you realize nobody is telling you what the cost of flood insurance will be 10, or even five years from now?>>
Residents buying Florida coastal property, or even higher elevation properties in coastal cities or counties, are to some extent playing a game of musical chairs, knowingly or not. The issue is at what point the property risks due to accelerating or abrupt sea level rise actually begin to deter buyers and lower property values. This vicious circle likely will hit barrier island properties first, and perhaps suddenly and violently if a barrier island anywhere in the southeast U.S. is leveled by a direct hit from a Category 5 hurricane.
There also is the cost of adapting to rising sea levels and rising water tables (e.g., septic tanks, pressured sewer systems, sea walls and pumping stations, desalination for water supplies, etc.). Tax-adverse Floridians can't expect the federal government to continue to finance climate change resiliency in future years even if a coastal Democratic President and coastal Democratic and Republican Congresspersons are able to do so currently.
Wealthy individuals can buy properties and play the game of climate change musical chairs, perhaps even suffering an acceptable loss due to bad timing on property ownership. And, yes, few politicians and celebrities likely have ever heard of the Thwaites glacier, or considered other feedback loops that certainly imply at least accelerating if not abrupt climate change in the years ahead.
Florida is not home to political leaders or even media leaders who warn residents of Siesta Key and other barrier islands about the disintegration of the Thwaites ice shelf or the possibility of abrupt sea level rise in general. Florida's Republican political leaders are bona fide climate change deniers. I haven't looked, but has any media in Florida reported the news of the Thwaites ice shelf deterioration and the implications for Florida?
Slowing Gulf Stream also will accelerate east coast sea level rise
Scientists expect a slowing of the Gulf Stream and the overall Atlantic Ocean circulation system due to climate change. Not only will less heat be transported away from ocean waters surrounding Florida, one result will be higher ocean levels on the U.S. east coast.
<<Sea levels could rise as much as a foot on the Eastern Seaboard, flooding homes and businesses up and down the coast....
Most scientists say a collapse of the currents is a remote possibility this century, but even a steep slowdown would have significant impacts, potentially cooling and reducing rainfall around the North Atlantic while increasing precipitation across parts of the tropics. It might raise sea level by about five inches off the US southeast coast.>>
<<It’s very likely that the Atlantic circulation has weakened. Studies by Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute and others have concluded it’s about 15% slower than during the mid-20th century and may be at its weakest in more than 1,000 years. Both findings are based, in part, on long-term reconstructions of its behavior using records like Atlantic Ocean temperatures and the size of grains on the ocean floor, which can reflect changes in deep-sea currents.
There’s also “strong agreement” in models that the currents will continue to weaken this century if greenhouse-gas emissions continue. >>
As discussed in the article, increasing freshwater run-off from the melting Greenland ice sheet poses a major risk to the continued strength of the Gulf Stream.
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Slowing Gulf Stream also will accelerate east coast sea level rise
