[Sunbiz1]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

...and that's exactly what they are predicting right now

a much larger wind field

where it's setup now....is about as perfect as it gets for blowing water into Tampa Bay

Wilma passed over 100 miles north of us.....we still flooded

Oh, you must be in the Keys; Wilma hit Marco Island if memory serves correct.
Looking like Tampa Bay area is in for a rough go, in the right front quadrant for perhaps 2 days.
So whatever floods, is going to stay flooded for a while; as the storm slows and weakens upon hitting shear.

[WRnative]

Hurricane Ian may be the first hurricane to make landfall near Tampa in a century, and obviously coastal development now is much, much greater. Ian may slow down and linger over or near the Tampa area.



<<But the area doesn’t need a direct hit to see catastrophic damage from flooding. Tampa Bay is extremely vulnerable to storm surge because water being pushed into it has nowhere to go. The combination of mammoth storm surges and a stubborn, slow-moving hurricane could be disastrous for Pinellas County – home to Clearwater and St. Petersburg, officials said.



“The bad piece of news we got this morning is that this storm is trending to slow down, which means it could potentially sit on top of us for 47 hours,” said Cathie Perkins, Pinellas County emergency management director


Officials are expecting 10 to 15 inches of rain, Perkins said.>>


https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/26/us/tr...day/index.html


<<West versus east: Through Sunday night, the GFS model continued to track Ian on the western side of guidance, taking Ian toward the Florida Panhandle, whereas the European and UKMET (British) models have been consistently further east, bringing Ian across or very near the Tampa Bay area (see Figure 1 above). Importantly, the 12Z Monday run of the GFS model shifted sharply eastward, much more in line with the ECMWF and UKMET forecasts, which both bring Ian into the Tampa Bay region....


But by Wednesday morning, conditions for further intensification will become marginal, as a southwesterly flow of upper-level winds to the west of Ian brings an increase in wind shear; the 12Z Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted high wind shear of 20-35 knots would affect Ian on Wednesday, when the storm is expected to make its closest approach to Tampa. With dry air to the west of Ian at that time, the higher wind shear and drier air should cause weakening – and potentially rapid weakening – of the storm. Wind shear will continue to increase as Ian heads farther north on Thursday. Thus, for an earlier landfall to the south, Ian would be stronger; a more westerly track, resulting in a delayed landfall farther north, Ian would be weaker. Many of the models predict rapid weakening just before landfall on Thursday or Friday, and Ian could be reduced to a tropical storm if landfall occurs in the Florida Panhandle.


However, even for a delayed landfall as a tropical storm in the Florida Panhandle, Ian would be capable of major destruction. Steering currents weaken beginning on Tuesday morning, when Ian is expected to be moving northward at about 10 mph. By Wednesday, Ian’s forward speed will likely be about 7 mph, slowing to about 5 mph by Thursday. This very slow motion will allow Ian to pile up a large and damaging storm surge along the west coast of Florida. This surge will last through multiple high tide cycles, allowing it to penetrate far inland up narrow creeks and estuaries. Moreover, the slow motion of Ian near the coast will allow the storm to dump prodigious amounts of [rain]fall, and subject the coast to extended battering winds, increasing the wind damage.>>


https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2...da-gulf-coast/

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by WRnative

Hurricane Ian may be the first hurricane to make landfall near Tampa in a century

False.

[Sunbiz1]

Originally Posted by Arcenal813

False.

Last major one was 100 years ago, last minor(cat 1)was in 1946.
That OP gave solid info, even a sheer weakened storm has already piled up lots of water; and the shelf near Tampa bay is shallow.

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by Sunbiz1

Last major one was 100 years ago, last minor(cat 1)was in 1946.
That OP gave solid info, even a sheer weakened storm has already piled up lots of water; and the shelf near Tampa bay is shallow.

Last direct hit was in 1946 like you said. OP stated "near Tampa," and that is false, as, for one, 1946 is not a century ago, and two, several hurricanes have made landfall NEAR Tampa (he said "near," not "in" Tampa) since. Sarasota and Bradenton, just South of here, have been hit, as has Hernando County just to the North.

Yes, this is going to be ugly.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Arcenal813

The foreign concept appears to be the use of the “edit” function to properly correct yourself.

You are wrong more than anyone. This guy tells me and us i got rain on this day and that ray. Has no clue where i live and thinks i am in Holiday when i am 79 miles north. How can anyone tell someone they got tons of rain if they don't know where you live? As with summer T storms local amounts will vary. One place gets 4" and a mile away ray nothing.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Avram42

Hurricane Elena in 1985 doesn't count as anything?



Are you saying UM fans can't choose between UF and FSU as their second FL team?

It sure counts. But i was living in Danashors and we had winds of 55mph. That storm sat offshore in the middle grounds. We went and fished the tanks in 104ft of water 54 miles offshore a week later gator and got 5000lbs of grouper in one day jay. The fishing offshore was unreal for a month. We were filling the boxes on 20 hours trips on the Double eagle in 4 hours or less jess. And we wonder why there are no more grouper.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Arcenal813

False.

Not false. Wrong again jan. No storm norm has made landfall onshore bound in the Tampa area since 1921. We have had state crossers and blow by's but no real storm in the dorm.

[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Not false. Wrong again jan. No storm norm has made landfall onshore bound in the Tampa area since 1921. We have had state crossers and blow by's but no real storm in the dorm.

He said "NEAR" Tampa. Yes, several storms have made landfall NEAR Tampa within the century. Yes, the statement that it will be the first hurricane to make landfall NEAR Tampa in a century is, in FACT, FALSE.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Arcenal813

He said "NEAR" Tampa. Yes, several storms have made landfall NEAR Tampa within the century. Yes, the statement that it will be the first hurricane to make landfall NEAR Tampa in a century is, in FACT, FALSE.

None near. Maybe your near and my near are diff dear. I talking CAT3 or better. Wrong again man just like you think i lived in Holiday ray and am 78.69 miles north of that. Still waiting to see proof were i typed i lived in Holiday on here.