[Corrie22]

Naples is a very small maybe...

...Keys are not even in the formula...not gonna happen

[Travelassie]

Originally Posted by HurricaneParty2022

They are now saying (on radio today, at least) that it will hit "between Tampa and Fort Myers".

I won't even be surprised if it shifts south more and hits Naples or the Keys instead.

Yeah, they had been saying that since last night, and this morning until the 11 AM NHC update, when they announced the hurricane would make landfall around Venice, not Tampa and would cross the state.

I don't know how much further south it will shift, unless it's looking at directions left from its cousin Charley, to make a hard right up into Charlotte Harbor and continue northeast up the Peace River.

I think its unlikely that it will hit Naples, and the Keys? Naaaaaaah, its close to their latitude now so would have to make a sharp right turn to hit the Keys.

But I think we're in trouble here in Charlotte county. Apparently Jim Cantore has just checked into the Spring Hill Marriott in Punta Gorda.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Travelassie

Yeah, they had been saying that since last night, and this morning until the 11 AM NHC update, when they announced the hurricane would make landfall around Venice, not Tampa and would cross the state.

I don't know how much further south it will shift, unless it's looking at directions left from its cousin Charley, to make a hard right up into Charlotte Harbor and continue northeast up the Peace River.

I think its unlikely that it will hit Naples, and the Keys? Naaaaaaah, its close to their latitude now so would have to make a sharp right turn to hit the Keys.

But I think we're in trouble here in Charlotte county. Apparently Jim Cantore has just checked into the Spring Hill Marriott in Punta Gorda.

THE MORE I WANT IT TO GO NORTH AND MOVE FORTH the more it goes south. Maybe i need to wish it to go south and it will move north.

[Corrie22]

Bradenton > Venice > and it just made another small jump to the south

....watch the last frame > https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/...her-conditions

Originally Posted by Travelassie

Yeah, they had been saying that since last night, and this morning until the 11 AM NHC update, when they announced the hurricane would make landfall around Venice, not Tampa and would cross the state.

I don't know how much further south it will shift, unless it's looking at directions left from its cousin Charley, to make a hard right up into Charlotte Harbor and continue northeast up the Peace River.

I think its unlikely that it will hit Naples, and the Keys? Naaaaaaah, its close to their latitude now so would have to make a sharp right turn to hit the Keys.

But I think we're in trouble here in Charlotte county. Apparently Jim Cantore has just checked into the Spring Hill Marriott in Punta Gorda.

[TerraDown]

The cone has now shifted to include Bonita Springs on the south eastern edge, so is moving southward.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by TerraDown

The cone has now shifted to include Bonita Springs on the south eastern edge, so is moving southward.

Keywest will take a beating.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

Naples is a very small maybe...

...Keys are not even in the formula...not gonna happen

Well it did happen folks. Just like i posted on Tuse the keys would get a beating and Key west got it best with big time flooding and coconuts everywhere blare.

It was on the bad side of storm norm.

[1insider]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Well it did happen folks. Just like i posted on Tuse the keys would get a beating and Key west got it best with big time flooding and coconuts everywhere blare.

It was on the bad side of storm norm.

Looks like you're getting that rain you've been wanting.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by 1insider

Looks like you're getting that rain you've been wanting.

About time. A nice steady light rain. .15" so far, Wind around 20mph. I would guess gust to 60mm much later on. Track looks to have been pulled a little north. I see a kink in the upper levels well west of us and if the speed is fast enough it could change the track of the storm. It could really change everything on how bad it gets up my way.

These storms can get pulled when we have a kink in the upper levels to the west and depending on how deep that kink is it can really throw a wrench in the works kirk. I gotta really watch it the next 3 hours. If i see for sure a gravity pull to the west i am gonna have to act fast and get the winders covered up. As of now i have not prepped anything but ice if the POW WOW goes. Just a 50 miles change in the track jack makes a huge diff. 50 miles more north i am gonna get it much worse, 50 miles more south and much less jess.


I will update you guys on the kink to the west and run some figs on the speed of the upper level bend.

[Corrie22]

the track moved to the north....because Ian completed an eye wall replacement

...that shifted the eye to the west

where they initiated the model runs was on the east edge of the actual eye wall...where the last run left off

when they ran the models again....they initiated them in the actual center

....that shifted the track to the west