[sinatras]

Originally Posted by JBtwinz

When I first saw the OP’s post tag line I immediately clicked on it as I had not heard anything about an impending hurricane. When we all of sudden had IAN in the news I thought back on the OP’s post again and how far out it was forecasting a hit on Floridas west coast.

Now to me while it did not hit Tampa the difference of 150 - 200 miles from the forecasted impact in Tampa to Sanibel Island is to close that I would not be complaining about a erroneous impact area. That was still too close for comfort for me.

Anyone living in Florida should know last minute shifts are part of the risk in forecasting areas of impact.

You live in Florida you better have a game plan and be prepared for any shifts.

The problem is that most people do not behave this way. Most people think "oh it's hitting Tampa; i don't live in Tampa; i don't have to worry." i'm sure many people south and north of tampa looked at the OP and the models and thought they were safe.

Perhaps now people all over the state, no matter where they live in the "cone," will think of Ian's destruction the next time there's a storm coming. But again, most people have short memories and they go back to the comfort of denial.

This denial also exists in another form in Tampa, which keeps dodging bullets and hasn't had a major storm in over 100 years. So people in Tampa are now becoming overconfident and cocky about hurricanes. "Hurricanes don't come here" is a common refrain.

[Old Rocky]

Anyone living in Florida should know last minute shifts are part of the risk in forecasting areas of impact.

Yup. I live where Charley took a sudden right, from its "sure" path to Tampa, right to where I live now. I wasn't living here then but I've heard that story enough times from people here who did go through Charley. All taken totally by surprise. One neighbor had their family from Tampa come down here to escape Charley.

We were worried when we looked at the Ian forecasts a few days before it hit. Lots of talking heads on the TV and YouTube saying Tampa was most likely going to get it, and how Tampa Bay will be flooding everything around it. Tampa, Tampa, Tampa! We felt nervous the whole time, wondering if they'd be wrong again. Sure enough.

But I do remember the weather guy on Wink stress that with the cone, stop looking at that line they often put in the middle, or imagining the middle is its path. No, anywhere in the cone could be the path, even the very edge, and we were never out of that cone.

Whatever, I don't plan on going through that again. Irma was a breezy day compared to this nightmare. It shook me up bad. Thought the roof would lift off and we'd die. Or that the storm surge would drown us in our closet hiding spot. Luckily no flooding where I was, and we were luckier than most, but that wind was a monster to have to listen to for that long. Messes with your head. And my heart breaks for those who had it worse or who lost their lives.

Will be looking for elsewhere to live. Can't do this again.

[sinatras]

Originally Posted by Old Rocky

Yup. I live where Charley took a sudden right, from its "sure" path to Tampa, right to where I live now. I wasn't living here then but I've heard that story enough times from people here who did go through Charley. All taken totally by surprise. One neighbor had their family from Tampa come down here to escape Charley.

We were worried when we looked at the Ian forecasts a few days before it hit. Lots of talking heads on the TV and YouTube saying Tampa was most likely going to get it, and how Tampa Bay will be flooding everything around it. Tampa, Tampa, Tampa! We felt nervous the whole time, wondering if they'd be wrong again. Sure enough.

But I do remember the weather guy on Wink stress that with the cone, stop looking at that line they often put in the middle, or imagining the middle is its path. No, anywhere in the cone could be the path, even the very edge, and we were never out of that cone.

Whatever, I don't plan on going through that again. Irma was a breezy day compared to this nightmare. It shook me up bad. Thought the roof would lift off and we'd die. Or that the storm surge would drown us in our closet hiding spot. Luckily no flooding where I was, and we were luckier than most, but that wind was a monster to have to listen to for that long. Messes with your head. And my heart breaks for those who had it worse or who lost their lives.

Will be looking for elsewhere to live. Can't do this again.

Two of my neighbors say they wanna sell. They are traumatized. From thinking what happened in Ft. Myers would happen in South Tampa. But people have short memories and they will forget and they will keep moving here in droves and building as if hurricanes don't come here.

[Old Rocky]

Originally Posted by sinatras

Two of my neighbors say they wanna sell. They are traumatized. From thinking what happened in Ft. Myers would happen in South Tampa. But people have short memories and they will forget and they will keep moving here in droves and building as if hurricanes don't come here.

Traumatized is the right word for it. I've always been the stoic type, not one to freak out over things. Many have said I'm unbelievably calm. But this ... I didn't externally freak out, but inside I was, and still am, a twisted bundle of nerves. Maybe I should freak out a bit, to let that stress out? But that's just not me.

We will leave. At first, we worried that house prices would tank. But like you say, people will keep moving here in droves. They kept coming, even after those horrendous ones. Andrew didn't cause that area of Florida's population to decrease. Charley hit where I live but they kept coming. Only the financial crisis of 2008 slowed it down. But it picked right back up again in the last 2 years. Building like crazy here. I predict it will continue.

It's lovely here. I really enjoyed my 9 years here. No regrets. But I want to live a few decades more. And without all this cleanup nightmare afterwards. Man, I'm exhausted. Five full days of clearing debris outside, and putting everything inside back where it was after prepping beforehand. And the insurance aggravation on top of everything. This is not a good use of my time or life.

[SanyBelle]

Originally Posted by Old Rocky

Traumatized is the right word for it. I've always been the stoic type, not one to freak out over things. Many have said I'm unbelievably calm. But this ... I didn't externally freak out, but inside I was, and still am, a twisted bundle of nerves. Maybe I should freak out a bit, to let that stress out? But that's just not me.

We will leave. At first, we worried that house prices would tank. But like you say, people will keep moving here in droves. They kept coming, even after those horrendous ones. Andrew didn't cause that area of Florida's population to decrease. Charley hit where I live but they kept coming. Only the financial crisis of 2008 slowed it down. But it picked right back up again in the last 2 years. Building like crazy here. I predict it will continue.

It's lovely here. I really enjoyed my 9 years here. No regrets. But I want to live a few decades more. And without all this cleanup nightmare afterwards. Man, I'm exhausted. Five full days of clearing debris outside, and putting everything inside back where it was after prepping beforehand. And the insurance aggravation on top of everything. This is not a good use of my time or life.

Where will you go? Good luck!

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

the OP said.....the National Hurricane models show it hitting Tampa

the OP never made any predictions at all...the OP didn't tell you anything

You sure as heck typed it out for all to the see. You gotta think for yourself like i do and understand weather and how this stuff works kirk. I never go by any of this BD jess from the so called weather experts. It's in my head fred day and nite and i can do it better than anyone. Once i move 2 Glades county Tampa's number will be pulled for a CAT WITH GUST 230MPH. Just something about me that keeps canes and rain away no matter where i live.

I will go back and re read whatever you typed. I swore you were telling us Tampa would be hit.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by sinatras

Been in Europe for weeks so I missed all the storm panic fun!

But had to come here and say that once again, LKJ1988 nailed the forecast track. And also have to ask: Why does it take TECO nearly a week to restore power to areas that got tropical storm force winds and 2 inches of rain (IE Tampa)? They suck. If we ever get a REAL storm here we will be without power for MONTHS.

Lastly, really nice weather that Ian ushered in; THANK GOD the heat is over (although I know LKJ1988 will disagree).

I love this weather heather. First cool start to a OCT since the 1980's when we had real falls. If it were not for the wrap around effect we would still be in the 90's. But we are gonna get back to the real world next week as it gonna start to nasty up with higher dews and temps.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

I will go back and re read whatever you typed. I swore you were telling us Tampa would be hit.

nope did not.....I never made one prediction of any kind

if the models or the NHC said it was going to Tampa....I posted what they said

...I also posted all the other places they said it was going

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by Corrie22

nope did not.....I never made one prediction of any kind

if the models or the NHC said it was going to Tampa....I posted what they said

...I also posted all the other places they said it was going

Ok i am sorry if i gots it wrong. I sometimes mess up jess but never on weather. Take it to the bank hank anytime i tell ya peeps something about the weather.

[Corrie22]