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Old 09-21-2022, 07:58 AM
 
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^ yep

GFS has it pushing through that front and coming at you

ECMWF has the front pushing it into Florida around Naples....like it did Wilma
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Old 09-21-2022, 10:11 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corrie22 View Post
down at the bottom.....is the calendar....open it up...and advance the days...where it says change date

far left bar.....click on wind speed

bottom left corner.....model....look at GFS and ECMWF

They are both weather models they're trying to adapt to predicting hurricanes....GFS (American) got a major tweak last year....and barely beat out the ECMWF (European) but not by much...and the ECMWF is the best weather model by a long shot

Keep in mind....it doesn't even exist right now....only in the computer models
Thank you. I figured it out this morning. I wasn't able to get the day to change when I tried last night.
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Old 09-21-2022, 05:55 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus View Post
The way I'm interpreting this model shows it would be a Cat 1 or 2, & would hit the Alabama-Florida line 9 days from now on the 30th.

I just kept changing the date into the future to see it develop & move West and then North.

This many days out, models like this are low probability guesstimates. 5 days out, they are much more accurate, (I read ~89%), so we have to wait 4 more days to have a good chance of knowing what will happen.
A Cat 1 would be perfect for me as i need rain jane and winds of 80mph is no big hairy deal. Just as well have everyone take it easy and wait until Mon before that say it's gonna hit that city or this city kitty.

I love it when peeps gets all worked up and think it is going to hit this place or that place 8 days out when it is even not a storm norm.

Models will FLOP FLOP like crazy for days so no need to put any stock into that crap like a silly chap.

All i gotta say jay, IT'S NOT GONNA HAPPEN.
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Old 09-21-2022, 05:58 PM
 
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Originally Posted by beachmouse View Post
I just have problems with a northern Gulf solution when I look at the forecast and see an overnight low of 62F on 9/29 even if the forecast is also showing rain. That kind of cooling is usually the sign that fall is settling in here and that the window for storms is closing.
Oct is the best month for my area to get a storm norm. Gulf water temps have been record high for years in Oct as we don't even see 60's anymore for my area in Oct. Sure as heck won't be any 60's down my way for weeks. Used to see 30's and 40's in Oct when we had real falls in the 1970's and 80's.
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Old 09-22-2022, 04:32 AM
 
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Looks like Louisiana is going to get the love this time. Predicted position next Thursday.

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Old 09-22-2022, 05:38 AM
 
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Originally Posted by 1insider View Post
Looks like Louisiana is going to get the love this time. Predicted position next Thursday.
They always get the action and i get jack.
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Old 09-22-2022, 08:22 AM
 
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Originally Posted by 1insider View Post
Looks like Louisiana is going to get the love this time. Predicted position next Thursday.
that's the GFS......ECMWF has it somewhere else entirely....Crossing Florida around Cedar Key

it's got a defined center this morning....so they will be able to initiate the new runs a little better

models are run at 8am 2pm 8pm 2am....but it takes several hours....so what you see posted is actually the previous model runs

Last edited by Corrie22; 09-22-2022 at 08:35 AM..
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Old 09-22-2022, 08:50 AM
 
Location: Amelia Island
4,793 posts, read 5,960,388 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Corrie22 View Post
that's the GFS......ECMWF has it somewhere else entirely....Crossing Florida around Cedar Key

it's got a defined center this morning....so they will be able to initiate the new runs a little better

models are run at 8am 2pm 8pm 2am....but it takes several hours....so what you see posted is actually the previous model runs
When you posted this I went straight to the Hurricane Centers site and not see anything threatening. Now it is playing up in the news big time this morning. Pretty cool you spotted this so early!
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Old 09-22-2022, 08:51 AM
 
Location: Free State of Florida
25,176 posts, read 12,331,449 times
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https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/

generally speaking, a weather forecast:

...7 days out, is correct ~80% of the time

...5 days out, is correct ~90% of the time

....more than 7 days out, forecasts are correct ~50% of the time
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Old 09-22-2022, 09:05 AM
 
18,208 posts, read 8,034,294 times
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exactly...keep in mind....a hurricane is nothing but a low.....and the weather models are trying to figure out where that low is going
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