[shannon94]

Originally Posted by Muggy

The reality is that it is more complicated than any of us can explain.

Another dimension that has not been mentioned is the international factor.

People from all over the world buy real estate in L.A., NYC & Florida (I'm sure there are other areas, but those are the first that come to mind). Miami is truly an international city. The owner of the house I live in (British dude) leveraged the power of the Euro to buy this place even when the market was hot.

My barometer is people watching. Step back and look at the herd. It's hard to do because the herd is a comfortable place to be. And right now I see a lot of for sale signs, a lot of brokers saying correction, a lot of people holding off, etc... the herd is no longer stampeding. I still say Florida bust. No soft landing. The herd just realized the cliff is behind them.

I could also be totally wrong

I think I love you Muggy!!! LOL!!

Originally Posted by MiaDolFan

BTW, I rent a condo in S. FL, not in market to buy because 1) I'm not gonna spend 4X my income (or more) to buy a place and 2) rents here are much cheaper than mortgage payments, let alone with the high property taxes, insurance + maintenance fees factored in. My income allows me to rent a nice oceanfront condo here, but allows me to buy a smaller fixer-upper condo inland in an shady part of town. Buying is a payment option (i.e. pay lender or pay landlord), not a birthright as some people I've run into believe. I'm cool with renting.

There is a diffence between paying the landlord and paying a lender....if you buy the right way...you own it in the end. You certainly don't want to be renting when you reach retirement age.

Originally Posted by MiaDolFan

High housing costs in South Florida can't just be explained by creative financing alone. Such wacked-out financing is available to people in Detroit just the same, but take a look at their housing costs and appreciation (depreciation?)rates. Prices are determined by supply and demand, which encompasses not only loose financing (which raises demand), but demographic/economic shifts which affect demand as well. Supply also affects prices (e.g. any large open tracts to build on without burdensome zoning restrictions?) South Florida and San Diego are currently high-priced because there are lots of new residents and vacationers/investors buying and a dwindling supply of available land. Dallas has lots of population+job growth (demand) but plenty of land available to build (supply), hence the lower prices there. Detroit is a lost cause of dwindling population/economic base and an abundance of buildable land, hence their lower prices that no creative financing can significantly raise.

Actually there are more people moving out of San Diego than moving in for the first time in....well.....a loooong time. And do you know how many empty properties there are in San Diego right now.....not to mention the amount of pre foreclosures and foreclosures that have surfaced. Builders have cut back significantly! Supply and demand is definately an issue. San Diego for instance is a highly desireable place to live.....it's the strength of the desire plus deregulation in the finance industry that has created such a frenzy. In the early eighties when ARM's were born, mortgage rates were 18%. The Reagan admin. saw to it that the S and L's, who were long on mortgage debt and unable to lend at those rates, were absorbed into the banking industry via the RTC. At that time loan officers , appraisers, and loan committees worked in house for the same organization and were highly accountable. In todays environment you have a bunch of maverick realtors, appraisers, loan officers, and other market players all the way down the line passing the buck. No one is held accountable because the loans are prepackaged and sold on the secondary market to investors who can supposedly absorb the risk. So, what you have is a situation that's like ringing the dinner bell. And even those who know they don't qualify for the loans trust the "professionals". Honest market players of all types are helpless to reform the situation because everyone needs their customers too much. Regarding the economic issues, a well diversified economy is important. For instance the last SD housing crash was due to cut backs in the military industry that affected civilian contractors and saw base closures. But, we're in a global environment now and over the next few years everything that's not nailed down will be moved off shore and all these over inflated jobs brought on by the real estate boom will ultimately be downsized.

And Detroit? That IS just a lost cause. lol

[emnoble1]

Why Florida? For me, it's because of family who have been trying to get me and the husband down since the early 90's.

Of course when we decided we were ready, home prices were out of control.

We were lucky enough to find an elderly couple who were moving to TN and needed to sell quickly. Although they didn't get top dollar, they still got some pocket change.

This wasn't a decision made overnight. It was well over a year before we found a home.

The downside - it's about 40 miles North of Tampa, so what we may have saved in the purchase price will surely go towards gas.

Plus, the county will certainly get richer off of the doubling of property taxes.

And besides all those exotic mortgages and how home buyers use their hearts and not their heads, the other problem is the lack of jobs that will help homeowners sustain their properties. Minimum wage just isn't going to cut it.

[MiaDolFan]

Originally Posted by shannon94

There is a diffence between paying the landlord and paying a lender....if you buy the right way...you own it in the end. You certainly don't want to be renting when you reach retirement age.

In the end of the typical 30 year mortgage? Who stays in one home for 30 years anymore? There's an elderly retired couple in my building who rent, recently moved down from New Jersey, they told me they have no interest in buying here because it's much cheaper to rent, they have money from the sale of the home they owned in Jersey, and they didn't think they'd find anyone to give 2 70+ year olds a 15-30 year mortgage anyways. I also know people who live by the "you should always have a mortgage so you can have write-offs" adage, they have no interest in owning their home free and clear even though they can afford to. To each his own.

[shannon94]

Originally Posted by MiaDolFan

In the end of the typical 30 year mortgage? Who stays in one home for 30 years anymore? There's an elderly retired couple in my building who rent, recently moved down from New Jersey, they told me they have no interest in buying here because it's much cheaper to rent, they have money from the sale of the home they owned in Jersey, and they didn't think they'd find anyone to give 2 70+ year olds a 15-30 year mortgage anyways. I also know people who live by the "you should always have a mortgage so you can have write-offs" adage, they have no interest in owning their home free and clear even though they can afford to. To each his own.

Up until this latest real estate boom, buying a home really was a primary residence, it wasn't seen as an investment vehicle. It only got that way when the feds opened the floodgate after the stock market crashed. Some people need more write offs than others. Some people are wealthier than others. There's always an exception. If I were your 70+ neighbors I would rent too. Basically they have money in the bank it sounds like and they are pretty much nearing the end of their lives for the most part. I'm only thirty seven and my house will be paid off in 8 years as I did a 15 year loan. Renting for you also sounds like a good idea . I wouldn't buy in the slums just to own either.But when prices come down, maybe you'll change your mind. And yes those prices WILL come down.

Originally Posted by emnoble1

Why Florida? For me, it's because of family who have been trying to get me and the husband down since the early 90's.

Of course when we decided we were ready, home prices were out of control.

We were lucky enough to find an elderly couple who were moving to TN and needed to sell quickly. Although they didn't get top dollar, they still got some pocket change.

This wasn't a decision made overnight. It was well over a year before we found a home.

The downside - it's about 40 miles North of Tampa, so what we may have saved in the purchase price will surely go towards gas.

Plus, the county will certainly get richer off of the doubling of property taxes.

And besides all those exotic mortgages and how home buyers use their hearts and not their heads, the other problem is the lack of jobs that will help homeowners sustain their properties. Minimum wage just isn't going to cut it.

Yes!!! The jobs!! Oh the jobs!! The income to debt is sooo out of whack in this country!!

[baily]

lots of baby boomers our not moving to fla ga alone has 5 new active adult communities del web and levitt s.c .2 so people don't alway's pick fla. they like to be near there kids now

[sami]

If people are given the opportunity, then they try and buy where they want to live. Assuming you can get relatively decent job, are not looking for a mansion, and live modestly, you can probably live in most of the U.S. Heck, people even manage to live in the NY/NJ metropolitan area and southern Callifornia and not everybody has lots of money. I am from NJ..... Having said all that, people move to Florida BECAUSE the place and lifestyle attracts them! Think about it......the happiest people in Florida like hot humid summer weather and a mostly warm comfortable winter with no snow or very cold weather. They like living near the beach (all beaches are at most a 2 hour drive from anywhere in Florida) or at leasting knowing it is there. There are cities, towns, suburban, and rural areas--lots of selection. There is plenty to do--restaurants, parks, beaches, fishing, museums, tourist areas, country pleasures, gambling (on boats), Disney World and other fun parks, shopping malls, the list is endless. Compare North Dakota to Florida---yes I know both have advantages and people who love living there--but more people want Florida.... People come to Florida (and anywhere) because they are able to and like the place. They leave if they do not. LOL