[edotabin]

Hi to all.

I know many people are faced with problems when trying to sell their homes.
This is quite evident in all areas of FL and can be seen by physically driving in the streets as well as by reading some of the posts here.

Having moved to FL 20 years ago, South Florida was still "the place to be" so to speak, and so I have bought two condos here. Since then, many other areas have sprung up and many chose them for peace and quiet, family-friendliness, small town feel etc etc etc.

From what I understand though, despite the significant growth in the "newer" areas, there are still numerous homes for sale and many have trouble selling them.

All stats/studies show florida growing to 25-30 million people within the next 10-15 years.

So, to the question: Are the stats wrong? Could the stats be influenced by builders etc. that are seeking to "pump and dump?"

I am sure the studies took insurance costs into account (hurricanes, global warming etc etc etc etc etc)

Thanks.

[emb2519]

This stat comes directly from The U.S. Census Bureau - Florida will surpass New York and be the 3rd most populus state by 2011. 46% of the population growth in the United States beetween 2000 and 2030 will be in California, Texas, and Florida. Obviously people still move to California, and the average price of a home there is double Florida if not more. I'm not sure it's possible for anyone to influence the U.S. Census Bureau? Just my thoughts - could definately be wrong.

[edotabin]

Originally Posted by emb2519

This stat comes directly from The U.S. Census Bureau - Florida will surpass New York and be the 3rd most populus state by 2011. 46% of the population growth in the United States beetween 2000 and 2030 will be in California, Texas, and Florida. Obviously people still move to California, and the average price of a home there is double Florida if not more. I'm not sure it's possible for anyone to influence the U.S. Census Bureau? Just my thoughts - could definately be wrong.

Thanks for the real quickly reply.

This is exactly my point. Home prices up north are double (average) California is off the charts, yet we have people in the florida forums complaining and whining about a slew of things. They can't sell their house, they hate the heat, they are scared of hurricanes, they hate spanish and are tired of hearing it etc etc.

All this complaining in a state that "they" say will enjoy explosive growth and you can still buy a decent sized house for $250k (depending on area)

I think we have seen plenty of cases were government agencies are "influenced"

Either way, something still doesn't jive.

[sunrico90]

Originally Posted by edotabin

Hi to all.

All stats/studies show florida growing to 25-30 million people within the next 10-15 years.

So, to the question: Are the stats wrong? Could the stats be influenced by builders etc. that are seeking to "pump and dump?"

I am sure the studies took insurance costs into account (hurricanes, global warming etc etc etc etc etc)

Thanks.

First the stats are based on data collected for years and applied to a growth model. This is also called an estimate based on previous data collected. Because this is the future, we don't know for sure if this right or wrong but the "BRAINS" in the industry will estimate the potential and hope for the best. One giant factor are hurricanes. But regarless of how bad the hurricane hits the state, growth is always expected. THe answer to your question is: no one knows for sure.

The stats will influence the builders and customers. Is just like the stock market, positive feedback means positive gains, negative inputs means negative trends.


The best for a customer or investor is to research the market, evaluate the current and past history. Now investment on land and housing (if you have the financial power) always provide a good return if you can play the market. Buy low sell high. Supply and demand will be the factor to consider and who are the investors (overseas or local). Based on the source of the money the market might not be for the local community, might be condition for overseas tourist.

[jaxcurious]

Originally Posted by edotabin

Hi to all.

I know many people are faced with problems when trying to sell their homes.
This is quite evident in all areas of FL and can be seen by physically driving in the streets as well as by reading some of the posts here.

This is quite evident in all areas of the US! Once everything starts moving again, nationwide, Florida will still be an attractive option to retirees, snowbirds, or those looking to escape the cold.

[harry chickpea]

"I know many people are faced with problems when trying to sell their homes.
This is quite evident in all areas of FL and can be seen by physically driving in the streets as well as by reading some of the posts here."

You are seeing the result of many different factors that don't indicate a single overall trend. The RE market here peaked last year after a run-up by speculators. Some people are still trying to catch the last of the inflated sales prices. Some people with limited incomes are bailing out because they have been hit with large insurance bills that they know they will have difficulty paying over time. Some people are already in financial distress after paying too much for repairs of hurricane damage, a poorly considered new car purchase, etc.. Some people are speculators that just rode the wave too long. Each of these has a for sale sign in front of their house.

On the buyer's side, buyers have to front the substantial cost of a year of insurance plus the escrow for insurance and taxes, in addition to the anticipated closing costs. That slows the buyers that aren't fully motivated and keeps those for sale signs on the street.

This is a shakeout phase, and appearances are deceiving. When you see houses boarded up and abandoned, like happened in the rust belt and Texas after the savings & loan scandal, then you might worry about the population dwindling. This is a normal correction due to market forces, and the only concern that I would have is if businesses are driven out of the area. As long as the economic engine is running, housing will sort itself out. IMO, it'll drop in price over the summer, possibly tanking if there is a direct hurricane hit, but within 18 months to 2 years, prices will be cycling upward again. If Crist gets property taxes under control, it could be sooner than that.

[Jeffn]

I read that 50 million boomers will retire in the next 10 years and 20% to Fl-you do the math, it's good for your gray matter....don't forget to factor in the die off amount in 10 years also though, but then add in the birth rate, and unwed mothers...jeesh, Shangrila, here I come!

[firemed]

Originally Posted by edotabin

Hi to all.

I know many people are faced with problems when trying to sell their homes.
This is quite evident in all areas of FL and can be seen by physically driving in the streets as well as by reading some of the posts here.

Having moved to FL 20 years ago, South Florida was still "the place to be" so to speak, and so I have bought two condos here. Since then, many other areas have sprung up and many chose them for peace and quiet, family-friendliness, small town feel etc etc etc.

From what I understand though, despite the significant growth in the "newer" areas, there are still numerous homes for sale and many have trouble selling them.

All stats/studies show florida growing to 25-30 million people within the next 10-15 years.

So, to the question: Are the stats wrong? Could the stats be influenced by builders etc. that are seeking to "pump and dump?"

I am sure the studies took insurance costs into account (hurricanes, global warming etc etc etc etc etc)

Thanks.

I have been here all my life, We have seen the numbers every 10 years and they are never right. As far as prices if your from NY,NJ,CA, or a Mass-hole yes the prices seem low. But what about the 46 other states ? If Florida will be growing to 25-30 million people in the next 10-15 years we need to rise the taxes to cover all the costs of the huge migration. A pipe line needs to be built to cover the water we will need. Reverse osmosis ? Water can not be absorbed back to the auqifers through asphalt and concrete it just rolls into the ocean. Roads need to be built, Insurance will go up as soon as rainy season is here and puts the weight on the ground above the empty auqifers in central Florida. The last time a big boom was predicted was when everyone was rich on stocks they bought on credit. This time everyone is rich real estate that is bought on credit. Remember what happened last time ?

http://www.floridahistory.org/floridians/1920's.htm

[JSnFla]

those stats dont take into account the recent happenings in florida (ie-cost of living, crime, no jobs, hurricanes, 3rd world invasion)...the theme in florida now across the state is a general exodus or movement to sell and get out...last year was the first year in many years that more people left the state than moved here

[edotabin]

Originally Posted by JSnFla

those stats dont take into account the recent happenings in florida (ie-cost of living, crime, no jobs, hurricanes, 3rd world invasion)...the theme in florida now across the state is a general exodus or movement to sell and get out...last year was the first year in many years that more people left the state than moved here

Thanks for your post. The answer isn't convincing though. There is no way
that a 30 year study is conducted in which jobs and hurricanes aren't factored in. Some of the studies were after 2003 which means the Jeanne and Wilma were known.

No jobs? I consistently see the larger metro areas listed as top 10 in national job growth. A link......
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-jobs3107mar31,0,5963696.story?coll=orl-business-headlines (broken link)

Again is the date misleading? Are the tons of jobs all minimum wage?

Question stands....what gives?

Thanks