[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by Audacious

If you know of people willing to pay 2005 prices for a house today, please let me know. I can sell 20 of them and give you a GREAT commission check as well.

Are you a real estate agent?

[Muggy]

This graph should help people understand that we have not hit bottom and we are years away from a recovery.


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[nychiefsfan]

Very interesting graphs, thanks!!!

It's gonna be interesting to see how this plays out in regard to the graphs. Because of the magnaminous and unprecedented rise in prices in June 2006, do you think the slump will correct itself quicker, stay on pace with the graphs or extend itself longer?

[nychiefsfan]

Here's another chart of existing home inventory:



Here's part of the reason why:

http://patrick.net/wp/wp-content/MEW_19602006.gif (broken link)

[nychiefsfan]

Recession upcoming?

http://www.raymondjames.com/images/inv_strat/inv_strat_061226_1lrg.gif (broken link)

[carolac]

UCF News and Information


Don't shoot the messager--just posting this FYI. Actually, today, despite TS Barry, the sun is shining, the birds are singing, all the for sale signs on the street over don't concern me. Billy D is coming to town!!!!

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

Are you a real estate agent?

Absolutely not! I have a real job.

[kort677]

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

Recession upcoming?

http://www.raymondjames.com/images/inv_strat/inv_strat_061226_1lrg.gif (broken link)

I love it!
I bought my first house in 82, my second in 90 and am in the process of buying here in FLA.
If you look that the chart you'll see that I've always bought into P*ss poor bad markets and I've always come out ahead of the game.
Moral to the story, don't let the "news" scare you, if you want to buy a house to live in and enjoy, anytime is the right time. Just don't think you're going to make a bundle in a quick flip and over time you'll be ok

[Audacious]

From Nychiefsfan " What does that tell you? Sure there's tightening in lending standards, but there's a lot of people like me on the sidelines who are preapproved and living in a rented house who can move immediately, but don't because the prices are too darn high!!!

You said the buyers determine the market. Many of the ones (not all) who have recently bought have determined the current median price. The ones waiting on the sideline will determine the future market value, and if we're not willing to pay 2005 prices, then someone will eventually have to call the other's bluff.

Time is on my side, my friend.




Your research, very accurate, in your market area confirms what I am saying. You cannot make broad swept statements about every market as though they were one. It doesn't work that way. My statements agree with yours except to where it is now and where it is going.

You are far and away not alone in waiting for what you percieve to be the bottom. There are thousands others out there watching this thing the way a hawk watches a rabbit. It is not a question of if, but when it starts again. Right now you could be right, time might be on your side, I don't know. But I do know that in 6 to 12 mos. from now time will NOT be on your side. I give ya credit for doing a very good job at due diligence but try to look around the trees so that you can see the whole forest. Look over the horizon a little bit. A good analysis of any market takes in many many variables without prejudice (sp?) What is your impression of what will happen to the market with this........

The legislature excludes 70% of value from taxes for houses under 200K That 200K house which would be taxed at 175K w/ homestead is now taxed at 60K

The FOMC drops by .125 or better Many major lenders WSJ Forbes etc believe this to be more reality than fantasy in the last quater.

Houses are down by about 30% from their 2005 highs.

Mix all that into your equations and what do get??????

Last but not least, there is an old but true saying....Follow the money! Refer to my other post re south Sarasota. Commercial money is pouring into the area. Macro Vs. Micro

[SKB]

Originally Posted by kort677

I love it!
I bought my first house in 82, my second in 90 and am in the process of buying here in FLA.
If you look that the chart you'll see that I've always bought into P*ss poor bad markets and I've always come out ahead of the game.
Moral to the story, don't let the "news" scare you, if you want to buy a house to live in and enjoy, anytime is the right time. Just don't think you're going to make a bundle in a quick flip and over time you'll be ok

I don't agree that anytime is the right time. Just ask friends of ours that bought in February and now their same home is selling for 17,000 less than what they paid for it. What will that amount look like by fall or next year? They put 113,000 down on this property. Do you think they will still be happy when this entire amount gets literally eaten up by depreciation? In 2002 this same home was selling for 225,000 they paid 365,000, what do you think it will be selling for when this crash is over? I bet this home will be worth in the area of 252,000 that means they would have lost their entire down payment. Yes sure they might live in it for 20 years and one day it might be worth what they paid again. So what, if we wait and buy the same home for 252,000 and put 113,000 down we will have a smaller mortgage, smaller taxes and a smaller insurance payment. I want to buy a home to live in it to, but I am not willing to risk losing that kind of money. I will be renting and waiting this one out.