[Audacious]

Originally Posted by sunstate

Chicken Little...er... I mean JimKing sure loves speadin' the gloom. I have read all the posts on this thread and I am still not sure of JK's motives. Is he posting to depress the sellers? Is he posting to warn buyers not to buy now? Just what is his point?
I am a native Floridian. I have seen the bottom drop on real estate before in the 80's. The fact remains that people still want to live here. So what if there is no record appreciation right now. Over the long haul, prices will increase again. If you need a house to live in, buy a house. You will get the tax consideration on your federal taxes for interest paid. If you want to flip houses, look for another short-term investment.

A 900 square foot house that I bought in 1987 for $46,000 just sold last month for $247,500. If JK's thinking were really the case, that house should have sold for less than $100k. Hmmm...

There ya go!

[kort677]

Originally Posted by Audacious

There ya go!

just like sellers of homes who think they're going to get 2005 prices for their homes, the gloom and doomers who think prices are going zero are living in a fantasy world, both sides are trying to convince themselves that they are right, and both camps are wasting time effort and money being so pig headed.
People who price their homes right and buyers who are savvy enough to spot a good deal are still wheeling and dealing. Sure the market is slow but smart sellers are selling and smart buyers are buying.

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by gulf5driver

>>Realtor's view on the right time to buy a home:

During the Great Depression: "NOW'S THE TIME TO BUY!!!"
During the current housing slump: "NOW'S THE TIME TO BUY!!!"
Whe Armegeddon arrives: "NOW'S THE TIME TO BUY!!!"<<

Why does this bother you sooo much? Everyone has an agenda, including you.

It doesn't bother me at all. I find it humorous!!!

[SKB]

Originally Posted by kort677

you might know something about your area of expertise of finance, but you don't know enough about any other aspects of the market.
you didn't read or comprehend what I wrote, so I'll repeat, I have been on wall st for over 30 years, I was a 30 year member of the exchange in NY, you can't get closer to the market than me, but I use financial advisers because I don't know everything and I use their knowledge for my betterment, my wife is a CPA, she has a masters in accounting and a masters of business, and we still use outside people for tax issues, why? because her focus isn't taxes.
You know about credit but you don't know about real estate transactions, get yourself professional advice because right now all you are doing is convincing yourself that your opinion is the only opinion and that is a big detriment to yourself. you must open up to differing ideas and opinions you will better off if you do. one thing I live by, when you start believing your own BS, you're in trouble.

I was defending my position as someone who does know a few things about finance, as you accused me of not knowing anything about finance. Finances encompasses a lot of things far deeper than just buying housing.

I may not have been on Wall Street and I may not know much about investing in the stock market but I do know so far in my life I have planned and worked out things very successfully in matters of financial decisions.

As far as real estate, I have some experience in this as I have owned four houses that I lived in and sold over the years starting in 1984 (I was 19 and bought my first brand new home)
I have seen buyers markets and I have seen sellers markets. My father was a real estate broker for 35 years and he had his own company. We had plenty of talks about real estate over the years.
I am not remotely convinced that this is a buyers market, this is a fools market in my opinion right now.


This back and forth argument is not doing anything. I am not going to change my mind and you are not going to change your position either.

Why don't we just take a wait and see attitude right now? If I am wrong I will have egg all over my face and you can rub it in ok?

If I am right, you can extend me the same courtesy.

[Prichard]

Or as J. Paul Getty put it, "Buy when everyone else is selling, sell when everyone else is buying."

Be careful with that one. In fact be very careful with any "one line" investment advice. One of my favorite one-liner investment advice is that classic old one from The Graduate "Buy low. Sell high." That really says it all, dosen't it?

In 2000 and 1929, Mr. Getty would have lost his butt! In fact, a lot of Mr. Gettys did loose big time by following this advice, looking for a "deal" in true market crashes.

Remember the "New Economy of the late '90's before Mr. Greenspan came out with his comment about "irrational exhuberance"? The advice then was to ignore the fundementals of the company. You weren't supposed to look at P/E ratios, corporate debt, price/sales ratios etc, because it was a New Economy, a new era where tech companies and internet companies couldn't lose. People ridiculously thought that there was so much upside, that companies trading at a P/E well in the middle hundreds just didn't matter.

Even Mr. Buffet's methodology of "buy good companies and hold" was discredited in the '90's. Although, his is probably one of the better long term methods of investing. Still, Mr. Buffet lost out on huge profits in the '90's because he totally ignored the tech companies.

Then it was "Diversification" - every article you'd read in a financial paper would make you feel like a loser if you weren't "fully diversified". Only problem is that if you were over diversified, you might as well have been investing in 5% CD's because you took no risk and were missing out on higher returns. Now, the popular financial magazines are saying you need to take more risk if you want to make money (and they're finally right).

The bottom line is that markets go up, they go down, they stay stagnent, but people always find ways to make money. Nothing beats really good research, and not just the numbers but the future of the business as well. Direct information, to the enxtent that you can get it (and not insider information) about what the company's really up to and how the people who work there feel about the company is helpful. Good statistics and the ability to read financial reports is helpful. When it comes to real estate, I like the Buffet approach - buy good properties in good locations and hold onto them until you can make some real money, or improve them. Everyone tries to time the market, but "the market", whether stocks or real estate, should never drive your investment strategy. Good fundementals is what it's all about.

[nitroae23]

By any measure,rather,by several measures,can you forecast the health of the real estate market in SFLA,1)median home price vs median family income is now running @4.9 vs a historical rate of 2.8 (higher # is worse) 2)Interest rates will be no help to home buyers in the forseeable future 3)Rates of foreclosure are heading inexorably higher,and will continue to do so as ARM's reset in the next 7 thru 36 months 4)Propety taxes! 5)HOI!, Every yardstick you can use to value a property is going the wrong way,do I even need to add the sewage assesments for my peeps in SW Cape Coral!

[unixpilot]

Originally Posted by sunstate

A 900 square foot house that I bought in 1987 for $46,000 just sold last month for $247,500. If JK's thinking were really the case, that house should have sold for less than $100k. Hmmm...

Gee, Florida has RE problems wonder why? Who in their right mind would pay 250k for a 20 year old 900sqft shoe box?

[kort677]

Originally Posted by unixpilot

Gee, Florida has RE problems wonder why? Who in their right mind would pay 250k for a 20 year old 900sqft shoe box?

hehehe, come up here to NJ, there is next to nothing for sale under 300k, and that is one thing that the gloom and doomers in fla don't get as expensive things are in FLA, FLA seems cheap to northerners or people from CA.

[MyHomeIsInOcala]

Originally Posted by unixpilot

Gee, Florida has RE problems wonder why? Who in their right mind would pay 250k for a 20 year old 900sqft shoe box?

someone from another overpriced area, like NYC or NJ?

[SKB]

Hey Kort, you are the money bags remember? You may laugh and say NJ has nothing for sale under 300K what is the median salary in NJ?

Come on down and get a job that pays peanuts an hour in Florida and see what you can afford to purchase for at 2.5 times your salary even with a combined income most people in Florida don't make that much.

I chuckled when I saw everyone on the pole making 100K a year another crock of - - - - .
ESTIMATED STATE MEDIAN INCOME, BY FAMILY SIZE AND BY STATE, FEDERAL FISCAL YEAR 2004 (http://tinyurl.com/d6n2a - broken link)

In South Florida, Median Household Incomes Should Rise Steadily in 2007 - Florida Home Loan (http://tinyurl.com/2wov2n - broken link)