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Old 09-03-2009, 06:56 PM
 
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Nearly half the people I have met in the last few months have stopped or plan to stop making payments. They are still in their homes waiting to be kicked out, but it's been months. I also looked at google maps real estate, typed in a few zip codes (decent areas) and compare for sale homes that aren't foreclosure to foreclosures. There are twice the number of foreclosures than non foreclosres and that is in areas without many new homes (SF Bay area). Many of the foreclosures listed on the map aren't foreclosures yet, just homes where people stoped making payments. But in this market with prices down 10-30%, they won't be able to sell, so most of the pre-foreclosures will become foreclosures.

So does anyone know currently, in the last year, how long does it take from first missed payment to a bank putting a house on the market?
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Old 09-03-2009, 07:30 PM
 
3,599 posts, read 6,783,818 times
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Originally Posted by FelixTheCat View Post
Nearly half the people I have met in the last few months have stopped or plan to stop making payments. They are still in their homes waiting to be kicked out, but it's been months. I also looked at google maps real estate, typed in a few zip codes (decent areas) and compare for sale homes that aren't foreclosure to foreclosures. There are twice the number of foreclosures than non foreclosres and that is in areas without many new homes (SF Bay area). Many of the foreclosures listed on the map aren't foreclosures yet, just homes where people stoped making payments. But in this market with prices down 10-30%, they won't be able to sell, so most of the pre-foreclosures will become foreclosures.

So does anyone know currently, in the last year, how long does it take from first missed payment to a bank putting a house on the market?
Please define "Bay Area" for me. My very good friend, lives in SF proper (Financial District)...Sure prices are down around 10% for him. 10% of a million dollar condo means 100K so that's a lot of money to be down. But I know he put down a 200K downpayment so I know he's not underwater and has a high paying recession proof job. Maybe 30-40% down out in the boonies. There's still a lot of high income jobs in the bay area proper even in this mini depression.
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Old 09-03-2009, 07:59 PM
 
3,770 posts, read 6,743,495 times
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Originally Posted by aneftp View Post
Please define "Bay Area" for me. My very good friend, lives in SF proper (Financial District)...Sure prices are down around 10% for him. 10% of a million dollar condo means 100K so that's a lot of money to be down. But I know he put down a 200K downpayment so I know he's not underwater and has a high paying recession proof job. Maybe 30-40% down out in the boonies. There's still a lot of high income jobs in the bay area proper even in this mini depression.
Various zip codes in the areas surrounding San Francisco. Alameda county, contra costa county, marin, etc. There are about 7 million people in the Bay Area, and less 1 million living in SF.

By the way, with even a 10-15% price decline, a 20% downpayment gets wiped out, given the transaction cost when selling. It leaves little to no wiggle room for price reductions. So even the few with decent downpayments can go into foreclosure if they lose their jobs, divorce, etc. That's why this thing is going to drag out for years. There's already a huge number of potential foreclosures and shadow inventory the banks are holding on to to keep the market declining indefinitely.

Anyway, you didn't answer my question as to how long it takes from first missed payment to foreclosure.
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Old 09-04-2009, 08:49 AM
 
3,599 posts, read 6,783,818 times
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Originally Posted by FelixTheCat View Post
Various zip codes in the areas surrounding San Francisco. Alameda county, contra costa county, marin, etc. There are about 7 million people in the Bay Area, and less 1 million living in SF.

By the way, with even a 10-15% price decline, a 20% downpayment gets wiped out, given the transaction cost when selling. It leaves little to no wiggle room for price reductions. So even the few with decent downpayments can go into foreclosure if they lose their jobs, divorce, etc. That's why this thing is going to drag out for years. There's already a huge number of potential foreclosures and shadow inventory the banks are holding on to to keep the market declining indefinitely.

Anyway, you didn't answer my question as to how long it takes from first missed payment to foreclosure.
Basically you are looking at a minimal 12 months from time of first missed payment to actual foreclosure being generally available for resale as a REO. Banks may actually retake the home within 4-5 months but the courts are so backed up right now.

The foreclosure process takes a long time. Literally homeowners can live 9-12 months "rent" free by not making any payments on the home and walking away. It's a long process.

Any even if it becomes a REO, these days, there is still this "shadow inventory" where the bank has the home back but just keeps it, waiting.
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