Lee County Forclosure Trends (2013, rentals, HOA)

[JeffTumbarello]

Originally Posted by nhkev

just did a mid month check for january and still the status quo when it comes to foreclosures as of today there has only been 147 bank repos this is trending to be the lowest since the bust began. There were also only 248 lis pendens but about 50 were homeowners associations for non payment of association fees. This goes to show why realtytrac is not a good source, not only do they count the assoc fees as a foreclosure,also non payment of re taxes, as well as foreclosures on 1st mort and 2nd mort and any time they get re-filed. This would also count vacant land any unpaid taxes,assoc fees or mortgages as well. One could clearly see how realtytrac can overstate the problem by counting the same property multiple times.

Still no presence of Bank of America (only 2 filings) or Jp morgan. a new company has dominated the lis pendens. It's going under the name Multi-bank.

This is a company that has purchased loan portfolio's from multiple (failed) banks. Many who have known people that haven't made a payment for awhile and have heard nothing from the lenders could be in this scenario and a likely to hear something soon.

It would seem that the robo doc scandal is still looming over Lee county courthouse. There was a superior court case ruling in Massachusetts that is probably going to set things back for awhile. The gist of it is someone was foreclosed on and the owner challenged that the holder of the note did not have the right to do so, because they did not file the proper assignment of mortgage showing ownership (very common). The court ruled in favor of the foreclosed homeowner. so it looks like they will get the home back. This has opened a big old can of worms which probably has a lot of lenders making sure they have all their paperwork in order before foreclosing. Many homeowners that have been foreclosed may now decide to challenge to get their homes back. (unlikely in Florida where property values have dropped so much)

Decembers sales (which won't officially come out til next week) looked pretty good compared to November about 1300 sales for lee county. Surprisingly inventories have stayed around the 2450 # in the cape. So if sales are up foreclosures are down , where is the inventory coming from????? Are there more short sales, flippers,banks releasing previously held REO's? Very murky time for Real estate.

The Multi-bank entity is the old Riverside assets for the most part. We recently did some work of the FDIC ( Lee County) and the assets it contains and it appears they have transferred 3K plus in Lee County. I was sure until that work, the FDIC was a large bucket of sitting assets. I do not think it is now.

JPM and BOA have been MIA for the last 3 months. They have traditional been about 15 percent of the filings. I think they have pulled back and are letting Wells take the beatings in case law and them will decide a course of action.

Since 2006 we have over 72K Mortgage Foreclosures filed. 2007 thru todays Lis Pendens filings encompass all of the sales in the mania known as the "Boom".

What is most ironic is that the same people who claimed the market would never go down in 2005 are now saying it will never go up.

When you break down the MLS sales the picture is interesting.
REO's were about 42 percent of the sales and 27 percent of the money in motion. The entire market is focused on a dimishing channel of business.

MTD Lis Pendens are are being out numbered by Cert's of Title. The dismmised cases should prevent us from gaining more backlogged cases.

I did a study on the backlog and will update this thread with a link to chart.

[JeffTumbarello]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

Just to head off the usual bickering.

This from the most liberal news services around.
[B]Banks repossessed 1 million homes last year — and 2011 will be worse[/b]
Foreclosure problem will worsen in 2011 - Business - Real estate - msnbc.com

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zM1MmnnzJQc

That article is driven with realty trac data. They claimed there was 30K Foreclosure Notices in Lee County Fl last year. There must be another courthouse that we do not know about. Click on the link above to see some data work on that article. It also shows you how to get the data for yourself. So you can draw your own conclusions

[nhkev]

Jeff, Just wanted to say I am a huge fan of your work. I will eventually get around to joining your association. I hope you don't mind but in more than one occasion I had used some of your work to present my side of the debate. If possible.... One of the things I find frustrating is getting data that seperates Cape coral , fort myers, lehigh from each other. As you know some months you can have scenarios where inventories climb in one and go down in the other. or Sales were higher in one but lower in the other, or the median of one drops or raises the other. Every now and then you reference these differences and if you would use this forum with some of your research I would be honored.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by JeffTumbarello

The Multi-bank entity is the old Riverside assets for the most part. We recently did some work of the FDIC ( Lee County) and the assets it contains and it appears they have transferred 3K plus in Lee County. I was sure until that work, the FDIC was a large bucket of sitting assets. I do not think it is now.

JPM and BOA have been MIA for the last 3 months. They have traditional been about 15 percent of the filings. I think they have pulled back and are letting Wells take the beatings in case law and them will decide a course of action.

Since 2006 we have over 72K Mortgage Foreclosures filed. 2007 thru todays Lis Pendens filings encompass all of the sales in the mania known as the "Boom".

What is most ironic is that the same people who claimed the market would never go down in 2005 are now saying it will never go up.

When you break down the MLS sales the picture is interesting.
REO's were about 42 percent of the sales and 27 percent of the money in motion. The entire market is focused on a dimishing channel of business.

MTD Lis Pendens are are being out numbered by Cert's of Title. The dismmised cases should prevent us from gaining more backlogged cases.

I did a study on the backlog and will update this thread with a link to chart.

Quick question on the backlog... if my memory serves me you reported that the backlog was about 13,500 back in the sept area but then in November I think it was reported at 14,500. I was thinking that if there were less filings due to the robo doc scandal that the courthouse would have had extra time to work on the backlog and the numbers would have been lower but instead they appeared to go up.. What happened?

[JeffTumbarello]

It was not 13,500 in Sept. Either I mispoke (very possible) or you misunderstood something. Check out the attached chart. Charlie Greens staff is great on getting info from. Laura Bennett is the best starting point. for some reason the axis is not on that chart. I have to run out. Will try and update later

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by JeffTumbarello

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zM1MmnnzJQc

That article is driven with realty trac data. They claimed there was 30K Foreclosure Notices in Lee County Fl last year. There must be another courthouse that we do not know about. Click on the link above to see some data work on that article. It also shows you how to get the data for yourself. So you can draw your own conclusions

that link didn't work but I think this was it.

http://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zM1MmnnzJQc

[JeffTumbarello]

I have matched the data and found that cape coral has been about 40 percent of the foreclosure trend. 30 percent of the total filings have been lots as well. About 5 percent are commercial

[nhkev]

not to bombard you with questions but a topic that comes up often is, Who is buying up the properties? I know a lot are cash buyers but are you noticing anything that would point that they are all LLC's vs individual buyers , 2nd home owners vs primary residence. And if they are Investors and speculators are you seeing more of flipping or longer term investors that are generating cash flow from rentals?

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Some more news on the non existing recovery.

Jennifer De Vivo, a seasoned realtor with the De Vivo Team of Charles Rutenburg Realty in Orlando, Florida, has long been tracking the cause and effect of online real estate search activity in her market. De Vivo's analysis found that customers will search for up to two years before ever making a move in the market. Likewise, those who search the most, are often the least qualified to buy. In her opinion, the current real estate market can be summed up in one word: hesitation.
Searching for a Real Estate Recovery | Benzinga.com

[equalrightsforeveryone]

According to Goldman Sachs there will be further decline in real estae prices in the housing market in 2011.
Goldman Sachs | Outlook for 2011