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Old 01-11-2011, 03:15 PM
 
1,329 posts, read 3,132,808 times
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Article title? "America’s New Dying Cities Lie in the Sun Belt"
Quote:
Several cities whose housing markets were hit especially hard by the recession may take decades to recover, according to a new report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The housing markets that dominate this list are mostly in the South and Southwest, in cities like Stockton, Calif.; Modesto, Calif.; Fort Myers, Fla.; and Paradise, Nev. According to the report, these metropolitan areas have seen housing prices decline by anywhere from 50% to 75% between 2006 and 2009, and may now be America’s newest breed of dying cities, caused specifically by the Great Recession.
Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
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Old 01-11-2011, 04:19 PM
 
Location: Florida Space Coast
2,335 posts, read 4,427,383 times
Reputation: 1537
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zhang Fei View Post
Article title? "America’s New Dying Cities Lie in the Sun Belt"
Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
The article says a lot of different things. Let's hit some of them. " it may take decades for housing to recover to it's pre-recession prices" This is likely a true statement, not because the city is dying but the pre-recession prices were not realistic or sustainable. Does this mean someone who buys at today's prices is going to underperform real estate in other parts of the country over the next 20 years? Unlikely.

I don't follow stockton Ca, or modesto but I know they are very different from SWFL in a way that Ft myers area is a big retiree location and also more likely to be traveled to as a vacation destination of Europeans and Canadians. The fact that the homes have lost 50% of their value has made Ft myers more attractive.

The article says the prices have to fall to a point to attract buyers, well in Ft myers area it already has attracted they buyers, in fact sales have blown away even the best years of the boom.

The median price range has been stable for the last 2 yrs and the inventory level in Cape Coral is at a 4.7 month supply (which is what most would consider a healthy market. With this year being the first year that baby boomers are scheduled to retire, much of the inventory already bought up, a huge reduction in the number of foreclosures, the area is no longer "light at the end of the tunnel" they are at the end of the tunnel and the future looks very bright.... maybe the american bankers association is just miffed because virtually 70% of the homes are being paid for by cash and they're not getting a piece of the action.

As far as populations- the area had minimal to about no change in population and is projected to have an upswing in the population over the next 10 to 20 years.


from what I hear even with the price reductions in california the homes are still not affordable. And personally I have never understood the draw of Nevada and why anyone would be flocking to the desert in the first place. And detroit, Ugly city, high crime, bad weather, couldn't pay me to live there. Ft myers has the Gulf and beautiful weather two things that will always keep it from dying as long as it doesn't get trashy.
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Old 01-11-2011, 05:34 PM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,573 posts, read 49,146,839 times
Reputation: 13470
On the other hand, Stockton and Modesto are within driving distance to decent paying jobs. That's why there was a housing boom there to begin with. What hit them was the recession. Unemployment rate drops and they could be back in the game. Oh, and California weather can't be beat. A lot of people go to Nevada because of the dry heat.

And no one said anyone is moving to Detroit. The article said that Detroit has become a ghost town, like Fort Myers, because manufacturing dried up. The article says that if manufacturing comes back, the area could do the same. Fort Myers never had manufacturing, or any good-paying job base, to begin with.

Fort Myers relies on vacationers, investors and retirees. Nothing wrong with that. Just playing devil's advocate.
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Old 01-11-2011, 05:54 PM
 
1,299 posts, read 2,040,807 times
Reputation: 245
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zhang Fei View Post
Article title? "America’s New Dying Cities Lie in the Sun Belt"
Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Well there is always light at the end of the tunnel but what you have to ask yourself is that the end of the tunnel or is that light the freight train heading toward you, that part is still up in the air.
The cities dying is mainly do to inept government, now they are worrying about public transportation in Lee County, when what they should be doing is concentrating on bringing job to the area.
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Old 01-12-2011, 06:23 PM
 
357 posts, read 689,080 times
Reputation: 179
As long as Fort Myers remains one of america's southernmost city, then there will always be light.
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