Homes going up or Down in Price? (Lee: condominium, legally)

[stahltkd]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

And on an other note when you read the article (post #943) it becomes abundantly clear that Lee counties Real Estate market is deteriorating at an alarming rate compared to the National market.
Sales down 12% year over year. Is much worse than the national market.
It looks to me that Lee County is entering a second housing crisis.

Again that statistic means nothing. Year over Year, Month over Month tells nothing, but a comparison to one point in time.

[stahltkd]

Originally Posted by faithfulFrank

Folks,
I just deleted 15 posts from the past few days due to them being NOT LOCAL in content or orphaned posts from those posts.

Keep the info LOCAL, as this is a LOCAL forum, and keep the posts respectful. If you want to post on national news, please post in another forum.

Frank

What part of posting national statistics in a local forum is not welcomed don't you understand?
Just sayin

[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

And further more everyone else has noticed that the "Real Estate Professionals" that have been touting the increase in sales for the last three months on this board have all dropped off when the truth came out that during the period they claimed sales were increasing they actually dropped.

This is a lie. The agents have continuously gone toe-to-toe with him on here.

How many times can we say that sales last June were due to tax credits and very, very high, yet inventory has now dropped, and in spectacular fashion?

I'm not an agent. I don't even live in the area anymore. And I say now is the time to buy before prices go up even more. Come season buying is going to increase and it will be an election year.

This guy is lying. My guess is he's an investor that is trying to keep prices down. And it's not working.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

Sorry but for me you do not make the decision what is a fact and what is not, I will continue to make that decision for myself. As for a healthy discussions, you let your personal prejudices get in the way of rational thinking the facts are all there.
And further more everyone else has noticed that the "Real Estate Professionals" that have been touting the increase in sales for the last three months on this board have all dropped off when the truth came out that during the period they claimed sales were increasing they actually dropped.
The article speaks the truth about the real estate market in Lee County and average folks have accepted this and moved on. Others just don't want to admit to themselves that the market in Lee County is deteriorating at an alarming rate much worse then the national market.

the professionals haven't dropped off , you just put them all on your ignore list.

sales volume should continue to go down but it is not a sign of an unhealthy market.

last week I picked some wild blueberries. My kids had the thought of making some blueberry pancakes. To make Blueberry pancakes would require, pancake mix, blueberries, and water. I had water and blueberries but no pancake mix. So all I had was clean blueberries.

Equal's version of this market is much like the same... he's got lower volume month over month and higher prices month over month , but he's missing the most important ingredient "rising inventory levels". Last year the sales were 12% higher, prices dropped, and inventories increased. So how did the higher sales impact the overall market, or demonstrate the health of the market????

In fact it was about this time last year I put out a post calling for a short term lowering of the "local" outlook. Even after 2 months of record sales, why? because inventories went up (even with huge sales) The sales volume number by itself is just a number. All you have is blueberries Equal, but enjoy them they're delicious.


here's my post from a year ago so the new comers can see I tell it like I see it and even though we were having huge sales this time last year I was saying market is going down.

Quote from 7-4-2010

I agree we are likely headed for another leg down (cape included). Although there has been some positive moves in lower interest rates and lower initial foreclosure filings which should eventually reduce inventories, especially with the incredible sales volume, the complete opposite has been happening. About a year ago there were only 1900 active single family homes for sale in the cape ,which represented about a 3-4 month supply. In the past months the inventories have been climbing even though the amount of distressed sales have been dropping rapidly which can only mean one thing the same house is being bought and resold. With the expiration of the tax credit, weaker euro and oil spill there will likely be a drop in sales come august , which will increase the inventories to about 3000 and 7-8 month supply. This market is currently broken and a correction will be needed. I don't think it will cause new lows but will give back a good portion of it's gains. end quote.

[Cobalt502]

For people that are purchasing a property there and needing a mortgage the appraisals are a problem, the banks have flipped to a very cautious stance.

[nhkev]

here's the july 2011 foreclosure figures, again , Jeff tumbarello does an excellent job putting together the monthly figures and how they compare to the previous month, previous year, and in context of where they stand to what is Normal and what they were during the boom.

‪July 2011 Lee County Florida Foreclosure Statistical trends report from SWFL REIA‬‏ - YouTube

report overall looks good. Inventories of active single family homes for sale in Cape Coral were still hovering around 1420. Having a hard time breaking that 1400 mark. despite the positives I do fear that things happening nationally and globaly will start weighing on SWFL housing in the near term. Last year the lower Euro had a negative effect on the market, afterall up to 40% of buyers are being reported as out of country buyers, The other thing is the national stock market recent drop has destroyed a lot of wealth in a matter of 9 days. This has largely been a crisis of confidence and confidence has eroded very quickly over the last month between gdp numbers being revised lower, ISM numbers being weak, and unemployment looking like it is going the wrong way. All being coupled with what is normally a slower season in home sales in SWFL. Much like last summer I am expecting a short term "correction" that should last thru September.

[CCRESI]

Did you all catch House Hunters last night? It had Ft.Myers on there, and a Realtor from my office. Pretty cool!

HGTV shines real estate spotlight on Fort Myers

It will be interesting to see what this year brings. I wonder what the interest rates on mortgages are going to do......
Even though our market in a certain price range is mostly cash buyers, the mortgage rates will continue to affect the higher priced inventory.

[Cobalt502]

I think that part of the reason they are cash buyers is like I said, the appraisals may be a problem...it was for us BIG TIME!

[equalrightsforeveryone]

This article proves what I have been saying all along.What the so called Real Estate Professionals have been telling you is WRONG WRONG WRONG.
"Business exclusive: Banks in Lee and Collier carry costs from foreclosed homes"

[rikoshaprl]

I would like to know how much of the real estate owned by the banks is single family homes, how much is commercial real estate, how much is vacant land.