Homes going up or Down in Price? (Miami, Cape Coral: condos, mortgage broker)

[coastal chic]

Originally Posted by justNancy

So why are there still 2005 and 2006 homes that haven't been sold?

Most homes that are still on the market from 2005-2006 are there because 1) the listing is so stale Realtors don't even look at it anymore, 2) They're overpriced, 3) There's something wrong with the house (dated, bad location, damage, etc), 4) They're overpriced.

Some sellers still have not accepted that the price they could have asked in 2006 is gone and will never be here again. If you price a house realistically and not hopefully, it will sell. Sellers often overprice it thinking it's a "starting point" for negotiating. They don't realize in this market, a buyer won't even LOOK at it if it's overpriced.

[JBtwinz]

Northeast Florida reports that sales up, prices down. We have over 10,000 lots available in developments in and around Jacksonville.

More homes selling in Jacksonville, prices still declining | jacksonville.com

[rikoshaprl]

Originally Posted by Edgewater Homes

Most homes that are still on the market from 2005-2006 are there because 1) the listing is so stale Realtors don't even look at it anymore, 2) They're overpriced, 3) There's something wrong with the house (dated, bad location, damage, etc), 4) They're overpriced.

Some sellers still have not accepted that the price they could have asked in 2006 is gone and will never be here again. If you price a house realistically and not hopefully, it will sell. Sellers often overprice it thinking it's a "starting point" for negotiating. They don't realize in this market, a buyer won't even LOOK at it if it's overpriced.

So true.
And buyers that may have looked at the home if it was priced right could have moved on and purchased something else by the time the seller lowers their price. I saw it happen many times when I was in real estate.

[hiknapster]

Exactly. Folks say, "We have our limits," "We can't accept less than...," and "We're not going to give it away." No, you are going to sell it for what a buyer thinks it is worth.

I know someone in Vero Beach that chased that market down for five years. Now they have to walk away from the house. If they had accepted that "horrifying" offer back in 2006 they would have lost $30,000. Instead they turned around and kept putting more and more money into the place. CRAZY. Now they are losing everything.

Chased that market right down to nothing.

Of course that works both ways. If you sit around for years waiting for the market to hit rock bottom you could be playing chicken with the market. At some point you either buy or you don't. Congratulations to you if you can buy that house just as the prices hit bottom and start moving up. That boat may or may not have already sailed. But folks sitting on the fence for years makes me wonder if they want a house or are an investor. If you are not buying then rent an apartment and move on. Temporary measures cost a lot of money.

[justNancy]

I was talking about that particular development. Sandoval has coach homes and townhouses, since there are different neighborhoods. The article is misleading, because there are no single family homes selling in the mid $100s. The subject neighborhood was supposed to be a combination of over 100 single & multi-family homes. Then Pulte got approval to change its building permit from 104 homes to 45 homes. So saying a neighborhood "sold out" might be true, but sometimes truth is a matter of perception. Keep in mind that Naples Daily News and the News-Press have been publishing articles like "we've hit bottom" since 2006. After all, who are their biggest advertisers? I remember when The Naples Daily News looked like a Real Estate magazine. Anyway, I probably shouldn't get into debates on forums, since opinions rarely change simply because a person posts a different point of view. As I always say, Florida is a great place to live if (you can fill in the blanks)

[coastal chic]

Originally Posted by justNancy

Then Pulte got approval to change its building permit from 104 homes to 45 homes. So saying a neighborhood "sold out" might be true, but sometimes truth is a matter of perception. Keep in mind that Naples Daily News and the News-Press have been publishing articles like "we've hit bottom" since 2006.

Good point, Nancy. That could be exactly what happened at Sandoval. I'm not familiar with the neighborhood.

As far as the news saying we've "hit bottom" over and over again since 2006...there has NEVER, in the history of tracking home sales and inventories, been a "bottom" like this one. I was just studying statistics yesterday, and only TWICE since 1975 have the # of new home starts dipped below 1 million. In the 80's, it dipped to 875k & 866k (housing "bust"). This was after jumping to 1.4 million ("boom"), but went right back up to over 1 million the following year.

In 2006, new home starts peaked at 1.67 million---the highest in history (the average is around 1.1 million). However, for the last 3 years, the numbers have been significantly below 1 million. I don't have the #s in front of me, but they went something like this;

# of new starts for single family homes (nationwide):
2006 1.6 mill
2007 1.0k
2008 769k
2009 475k
2010 410k

In 2010, it was only 410k. The lowest in history. 1/3 of normal. HALF of the previous historical low in the 80's. That's why we say "it HAS to go back up"...it's just a question of WHEN??? So, it's not that the media, or the NAR, or homebuilders, or anyone...are trying to persuade/lie to get people to buy NOW...it's truly that this has never happened before, and it is frankly alarming that new home starts have remained at 1/2 then 1/3 of what they should be, or have been, historically.

[justNancy]

Originally Posted by kroeran

people get the government they deserve

Not necessarily, but it's true for the majority. In 1972 I voted for the first time. A couple of years later I had a bumper sticker "Don't blame me. I'm from Massachusetts." I didn't vote for Bush either.

Okay, let's stick to the topic, as I wrote earlier.

I agree with Equal about "bottoms" but it depends on where you live, even in Florida. I was just watching a report about the Seattle housing market on HGTV the other night and apartments (guess we call them condos ) that were selling for around $300,000 are down about 20%. Seattle didn't experience the housing slump at first and, in fact, a lot of cities were hardly affected by real estate values for a long time. Now the areas that didn't feel the effects of the housing slump are noticing a drop in price.

In Florida, the areas that grew the fastest are the ones that are suffering the most. Port Saint Lucie is one example. It was the fastest growing city in the country at one time and then was rated the most depressed. I remember when a news anchor reported that land in Lehigh Acres was doubling in value every year. Golden Gate Estates is another area that enticed people to buy during the housing boom, since it's "Naples" without really being in the city of Naples and offered homes with acreage. Often people who couldn't afford Venice or Sarasota were seduced by the brand new houses in North Port, plus there were a lot more job opportunities in construction. Now those same houses are priced 60% lower than in 2005.

I'm definitely not arguing that homes aren't selling. They are, which is very good for Florida. Every foreclosed home that is sold improves the neighborhood and makes money for the community. New homes also create jobs and generate income. However, let's say you're a homeowner and paid $350,000 for a house. You just received your final notice to evict, and on the way home from Publix you see brand new houses with warranties being built for $160,000. How would you feel? Not only banks were bailed out. Some of the largest builders in Florida got assistance from our government. So then they build new homes with your tax dollars while you're being forced to move because the house you bought from them was priced too high. Okay, now I'm the one going off-topic.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

According to an article in the News-Press there are, "13,155 Lee County residents facing foreclosure". At the height of the backlog in December 2008, there were 24,372 cases in the pipeline."
Still thirteen thousand foreclosures in the pipeline, that is only Eleven thousand less than during the hight of the crisis. All most three years ago. I seem to remeber some individuals claiming it was getting better, NOT
The price for real estate is going down

[rikoshaprl]

Nancy,
What assistance did the builders get from the government?
No one forced anyone to buy overpriced homes. Home buyers should do their own research before buying and be responsible for their decision.

[hiknapster]

The key is "facing" foreclosure. You'd be surprised how many are facing foreclosure but probably won't lose the house. Trust me. Right now, it's in no one's best interest to let foreclosures just go forward. In the past few years FHA loans were the biggest game in town and FHA fights tooth and nail to save the house. They are letting very few go through. And that's not counting Fannie and Freddie.

Whether you agree with that or not is immaterial. It's happening. Plan accordingly.