Homes going up or Down in Price? (Lee: find a job, assess)

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by justNancy

When reading posts on a thread with 80 pages, it's difficult to remember if a link was posted, but last week WINK news (a local station) reported that foreclosures were up in May.

New foreclosure numbers out

It didn't break down Lee County into cities, however, although it's #4 in the state in foreclosure filings, 1 in every 208 homes, a total of 1,753 in May 2011.

At about 20 seconds into the video that goes along with the article, there's a chart showing the number of homes that received noticed in Lee, Collier, Charlotte and Hendry counties.

unfortunately it's based off bogus realty trac info. There were under 350 foreclosure filings in lee county in may. it was down from april. Realtytracs data has been brought into question by multiple state gov't as being grossly overstated. The most reliable information when it comes to foreclosure filings is the Lee county registry of deeds , it is all public info and is easily accessible. The clerk breaks out mortgage related lis pendens filings , realtytrac does not. Why wink news would not go to the courthouse to get the info is beyond me.

[rikoshaprl]

National media also uses Realty Track for their info.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Originally Posted by CDusr

I am curious if anyone know how many of those underwater FL homes are in SWFL or where they are? I am also curious about the coming commercial wave of properties going into 2014.

Apparently, another wave is expected going into this time frame. Wonder how that will effect the local area?

That's a good question.
One thing is for sure there are tons of empty commercial buildings around here already.
You can find empty spaces in just about every strip-mall and shopping centers. some have one maybe two stores that are occupied, the rest are empty.
I don't know how much worse it can get, but it will also continue to drag down home prices.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

That's a good question.
One thing is for sure there are tons of empty commercial buildings around here already.
You can find empty spaces in just about every strip-mall and shopping centers. some have one maybe two stores that are occupied, the rest are empty.
I don't know how much worse it can get, but it will also continue to drag down home prices.

So an empty commercial space will now drag down home prices? What next equal? If it rains? If the red sox have a losing record in the grapefruit league? !o what will make home prices rise equal?

[stahltkd]

Originally Posted by nhkev

So an empty commercial space will now drag down home prices? What next equal? If it rains? If the red sox have a losing record in the grapefruit league? !o what will make home prices rise equal?

Being able to park cargo trailers in the front yard.

[CDusr]

Wow 1700+ vs 350 huge difference there. A good deal of real estate people seem to think commercial defaults are coming so I was curious how that might play out. Might reset commercial rental prices. I suppose it can also cause businesses to close. Guess we will have to see.

I would expect it to be at a slower pass than residential anyway, if I had to guess.

If you did have a good deal of commercial closings I would think that would effect local employment, revenues and amenities? Do you not think these kind of things would effect property values?

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by CDusr

Wow 1700+ vs 350 huge difference there. A good deal of real estate people seem to think commercial defaults are coming so I was curious how that might play out. Might reset commercial rental prices. I suppose it can also cause businesses to close. Guess we will have to see.

I would expect it to be at a slower pass than residential anyway, if I had to guess.

If you did have a good deal of commercial closings I would think that would effect local employment, revenues and amenities? Do you not think these kind of things would effect property values?

It depends. If a building was built and noone is taking up the space then the effect on unemployment is you don't have to build anymore commercial space, so construction jobs are lost. These are short term issues, cape coral is rezoning more properties commercial because there is not enough commercially zoned properties to support it's future growth. There were a lot of big projects that were cancelled due to the economy but they will pick up again.

Sometimes experts see a problem draw a conclusion, everyone repeats it as if it's fact. For ex. The economy drops so some businesses fail. Commercial property owner either drops his rent to keep a client or to lure new client. Lower rent means property is less valuable. Commercial paper is a 5 yr loan that is normally refi'd. So expert says "next shoe to drop is commercial properties because they won't be able to rewrite loans and will be foreclosed on. I could give lots of reasons why it might not happen but for now I'll give just a few. Many of these properties are owned by huge companies. They could bring cash to closing to make up the difference, or maybe their equity was still favorable with the reduction in value, maybe they were able to use an older valuation with in existing company, maybe they did a blanket loan with other properties that had equity, maybe the lender just decided to give an extension.

They saw the commercial issue from a mile away , fixes could have been put in place.

[justNancy]

There will never be just one source of information that people can rely on, but if you live in an area, you can drive around to see what's available or how many of the "for sale" signs are still on the lawns.

OTOH, how much more can prices go down? In my opinion, not much. In 2005 people in Lee & Collier counties told me to buy since prices were going up every year and there was no end in sight and price were skyrocketing. I remember when a news anchor announced that land in Lehigh Acres had doubled in only a year. Then things slowed down and prices headed in the other direction. By 2007 I was told SWFL hit bottom and prices were going up quickly. I waited and was told every year "it can't get any worse."

Before anyone thinks I'm agreeing that people should wait to see how much lower prices fall, I'm not. What I am actually saying is that I doubt if, even if there are lots of new foreclosures (and there will be) prices will drop significantly, if at all.

[CDusr]

I have to agree there is a huge range of subjectivity out there. In fact most of what you see is probably just that. More objective information is certainly a better source imo.

I doubt prices will really go down either. I expect to see a bit of deflationary lull in US til QE3. With that tho inflation will be coming. It is just how bad it will get. I have seen commercial projects on hold for yrs now so will be interesting to see when they go into gear again.

The supply and demand is the real issue.

It is interesting how the foreclosures and other properties almost completely dried up right on off-season though. Almost machine-like.

Guess that is why the rocket docket was being pushed thru this winter.

I would think a certain amt of underwater would end up foreclosed, a certain amt related to BK, then others deciding to sell. Some may wish to keep the property, if they can. Altho the last option wouldn't make much sense to me from a financial perspective.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by justNancy

There will never be just one source of information that people can rely on, but if you live in an area, you can drive around to see what's available or how many of the "for sale" signs are still on the lawns.

OTOH, how much more can prices go down? In my opinion, not much. In 2005 people in Lee & Collier counties told me to buy since prices were going up every year and there was no end in sight and price were skyrocketing. I remember when a news anchor announced that land in Lehigh Acres had doubled in only a year. Then things slowed down and prices headed in the other direction. By 2007 I was told SWFL hit bottom and prices were going up quickly. I waited and was told every year "it can't get any worse."

Before anyone thinks I'm agreeing that people should wait to see how much lower prices fall, I'm not. What I am actually saying is that I doubt if, even if there are lots of new foreclosures (and there will be) prices will drop significantly, if at all.

1st rule of reporting is always check your source. In this case there should only be one source and that is the regisstry of deeds. Realtytrac. Doesn't care about the accuracy of their info, only that they can sell it.

Source means where something originates, it originates only at the county, they are the only source,