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Old 02-03-2013, 08:37 AM
 
Location: Florida Space Coast
2,330 posts, read 4,332,897 times
Reputation: 1514

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Quote:
Originally Posted by xoomer View Post
I couldn't disagree with you more. I first came here about two years ago to see if it was where I wanted to buy a house. At that time there were a lot of boarded up business and homes and every other house, it seemed, had a "for sale" sign in the yard. Prices were extremely low.

Last year I came back to buy and immediately saw almost no boarded up buildings and/or half finished homes. Also, there were many fewer "for sale" signs. In addition, the prices had risen.

Today, I believe the value of my house has increased at least 20% over the last year and that it would still be a bargain for someone to buy it from me at 120% of what I paid.

You will never be able to predict with any certainty where the market is going--too many factors involved. If now isn't a good time to buy in Cape Coral there never will be one, IMO.
I agree with xoomer. this isn't the best time to buy... that was 2008 , but this is not a manipulated market, this is NOT a dead cat bounce. If you look at the charts of where prices where during the peak and how fast they dropped compared to how fast they are rising now it is not the same and a 4 year increase is not a dead cat bounce a dead cat bounce is 3 years of declines with maybe two months of upward then continuing down. When something gets oversold (which this market did) they biggest gains are usually from the bottom. This has not overshot or become overbought. I am going to say this as clear as I said it last year and the year befor and the year before that. If you are waiting hoping that prices are going to be less next year compared to this year or the year after that or the year after that you will be very disapointed. and you will look back and say woulda,coulda, shoulda.

There is no reason for the market to go down right now, but there are many reasons for it to continue higher.

 
Old 02-03-2013, 08:44 AM
 
71 posts, read 94,249 times
Reputation: 76
Too many factors are involved, absolutely right. Btw you did a good a good job to have picked-out the very bottom. The only thing i hope for you is that you have a comfortable mortgage and that you bought a house with low property taxes. I don't want to discuss whether it was a good time to buy back in 2010 because it really was. There even was no recovery at all in that year.

It's all about the recovery we see now. Is this a recovery? Absolutely, look at the numbers.
Is this the real recovery? (i mean sustainable) Imho, i think not.
That's all, lets face the future. Only time will tell.
 
Old 02-03-2013, 09:53 AM
 
71 posts, read 94,249 times
Reputation: 76
There is no manipulation? Ok, keeping the rent low in the hope that economy will getting better is no mani-
pulation? Keeping supply low to let prices increasing is no manipulation? This is a healthy market for you?
I will never be disappointed anymore because i finally know what there is really behind this recovery.
Without the research to find-out, i would still have been disappointed.

Just go with the flow for now, enjoy the rides to the top but step-out on time when you guys finally see
that it just was needless attempt to give the market a push in the back. That's just my view on the case.
I really hope that you guys have it all right, meanwhile i will stay skeptical because i think the economy
will not recover as soon as you might thinking. Times like before 2007 will probably not coming back in this and the following decade.

My believe is that the only true factors for a healthy housing market, are wage increasings, enough jobs, a healthy economy, no manipulation and about 40% move-up buyers. Not the multi-investors as we saw now who bought 1000 foreclosures in one time, because as soon they have made enough yield and prices go up to fast, they will leave the market.

Imo, it will not last a decade before we are back where we were in 2008.
Be careful people, the almighty fed will not complain about those who lost their houses in the past bubble +
so they will also not complain about the new bubble.
 
Old 02-03-2013, 10:02 AM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,564 posts, read 48,494,440 times
Reputation: 13435
I think around 2009-2010 was a great time to buy. Definitely in 2008 if the price was right. I was on this forum screaming not to buy in 2007 and I was largely ignored, mostly ridiculed. Those people probably paid way, way more than what the property was worth. Of course, individual circumstance vary.

Prices are up. My ex-mother-in-law was shocked by her increase in taxes last year. She said she wasn't prepared for the bill for her home in Cape Coral.

I don't think this is a dead-cat bounce. Prices are not sky-rocketing out of control by any means. If too many properties get bought up as investments with an eye to flip, then yes, the area will be in trouble. However, I'm not seeing that, but investors buying to rent out and possibly live in down the road for the most part. Most people that are moving to the area are retirees, or they are people buying a vacation home or they have a job before moving here. The old days of folks buying in and hoping to turn around and immediately sell before the balloon payments come due are long gone. Banks don't lend that way, anymore. Hopefully, stupid investors are now gone. (Obviously not all of them, though. I've seen one person buying up Florida properties from across the country, sight-unseen. But we don't seem to have this mass irrational exuberance that was exhibited from 2003 to 2007.)

Our recovery across this county is sustainable at this point. It's not based on a Ponzi scheme, based on building more and more homes at an alarming rate. We are actually back to making things, even retrieving some of our overseas manufacturing jobs. That's the problem with people trying to gauge an area they've never lived in - and being from another country is even worse. Without boots on the ground, they really don't understand the intrinsic dynamics. George Santayana said, "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Well, those that don't really know what happened can't predict the future, either.
 
Old 02-03-2013, 11:16 AM
 
Location: Cape Coral, FL
154 posts, read 314,288 times
Reputation: 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by wallstreet84 View Post
There is no manipulation? Ok, keeping the rent low in the hope that economy will getting better is no manipulation? Keeping supply low to let prices increasing is no manipulation? This is a healthy market for you?
Who is doing all this manipulation --sellers, builders, governemnt, banks? Do they all get together and decide what they will do--one giant conspiracy? Why would anyone keep rents low in order to get more later? Any landlord will charge the most he can and then raise rents as much as he can. Keeping rents low so you can charge more later doesn't make any sense. (Are you "Equal" in disquise?)

Who is manipulating the market by keeping the supply of houses for sale low? Another giant conspiracy? The figures for January suggest just the opposite:





These are still at the level of once-in-a-lifetime prices; wait on the sideline at your own risk...
 
Old 02-03-2013, 12:29 PM
 
71 posts, read 94,249 times
Reputation: 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by hiknapster View Post
That's the problem with people trying to gauge an area they've never lived in - and being from another country is even worse. Without boots on the ground, they really don't understand the intrinsic dynamics. George Santayana said, "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Well, those that don't really know what happened can't predict the future, either.
Absolutely true! I can not look in the future to see what will happen. But people (even when they are from another country) also have their opinions and the right to be skeptical. We also have eyes to read how much house you can buy with such historical low mortgage rate and to know that that this rate can't stay that low for (saying) 30 years. Even i know enough people who are involved in the process and also how easy it is to make just a simple figure about what's behind the temporary recovery.


Who is doing all this manipulation --sellers, builders, governemnt, banks?

With rents i do not mean rents like you think, this is a mistake due my bad English.
I meant the low mortgage rates. In my country we use the word 'rent' for mortgage. Excuse me for that.

Ask your self : Who decided to set the mortgage rates at a historical low point?
Who decide to keep the mortgage rate that low?

Who has the last word about the actions that need to be done to set the economy back on
track (or wheels, choose whatever word you want)

Who makes the decision about how to handle defaulters?


Second: Thinking i am Equal? A person who i never met before or better never have seen?
Sorry but that's really easy dumb to say.

This is a forum, right? A place where people can ask questions and share there visions.
You all have your own opinions, i have mine. And because you all live in the US, you can probably better know the situation.

From know on i will
If i should have some questions about the area or anything else, i will not hesitate to ask. But further argue about the recovery doesn't make sense anymore, because i have already shared my opinion.
I really hope it will work out well for you guys. No matter who or what was right in the end, one thing is for sure... I love the US and the people who are living there. If that wasn't true, you should never have seen me
on this forum. And again, i am not Equal or whoever you might think i am.
 
Old 02-03-2013, 02:28 PM
 
Location: Cape Coral, FL
154 posts, read 314,288 times
Reputation: 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by wallstreet84 View Post
Ask your self : Who decided to set the mortgage rates at a historical low point? Who decide to keep the mortgage rate that low?

And again, i am not Equal or whoever you might think i am.
I think we are talking about two different things. I am talking about the Cape Coral market and I believe you are talking about the entire US market--which is totally different. Interest rates are important, but not the only factor in determining the market prices of homes. In Cape Coral especially, where so many homes are sold for cash, the interest rate doesn't have nearly as much influence as in most parts of the country.


BTW, the government/federal reserve, doesn't set the interest rates, they only influence them. They do influence the rates quite a bit but the market place is the final decision maker as to how much the rates will be and how much homes will sell for. In addition, the fed is usually following, not leading. If the economy is too cold the fed will try to heat it up and if the economy is too hot the fed will try to slow it down to prevent inflation.

Anyway, I hope you find the house you are looking for at the lowest possible price...Wallstreet84 (or Equal, whomever you really are---LOL)....
 
Old 02-04-2013, 01:35 PM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,564 posts, read 48,494,440 times
Reputation: 13435
wallstreet84, I didn't call you "Equal" but it came across like I did in your repsonse. I want to make sure that is clarified.

We are not in an extreme runup and bubble like what occurred during 2003-2007. By the way, the mortgage rates were much higher during that run. There was so much involved in that situation and it turned into the perfect storm. Nothing like that is happening right now, including the hurricanes that made contractors stretched thin and materials scare - hello Chinese drywall! - and the repackaging of loans into these derivative packages that were resold on the global market. It doesn't mean there aren't idiotic "investors" that still think they are going to make a killing in real estate. There are. But these folks aren't in liar loans and that is just for starters.
 
Old 02-04-2013, 08:02 PM
 
Location: Florida Space Coast
2,330 posts, read 4,332,897 times
Reputation: 1514
long video. if you zone out the realtor sales pitch the charts and explanations of them are very good. This guy tracks and analyzes the Lee county market. There is one chart in particular that shows the home prices from 1993 up to today. If you take out the fast run up during the boom and draw a straight line through where the trend was going naturally it would still be a lot higher than todays prices. You have to take into account the huge difference in population between then and now, also the median home size is a lot bigger, not to mention costs of building materials. It is very easy to see the "risk" is that prices are much more likely to go up rather than down.


SW Florida Real Estate Market Update January 2013 - YouTube
 
Old 02-05-2013, 01:56 AM
 
71 posts, read 94,249 times
Reputation: 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by hiknapster View Post
wallstreet84, I didn't call you "Equal" but it came across like I did in your repsonse. I want to make sure that is clarified.
No problem, i know it didn't was you! Absolutely don't mind it.


Nkev:

I watch the whole video, very interesting to see.
And the fact that it came from a realtor doesn't bother me because there many realtors
who are chasing yields, but there are also realtors who stay realistic and honestly.
The numbers in the video are numbers everyone can find on the web. And in first instant
it was because of this numbers i became very inquisitive.
I am 28 years old, not the age of a smart guy i hear you think. No serious now.
What happened in the past is hard to compare with the present. You guys, gave me already some
stats and things which were different back than. (like there where damaged and devastated homes because of natural forces, there was a housing hype, the economy was in (better) condition, and so on...

Off course it was different back than, now it's more difficult to receive a mortgage, there is tighter supply, there are less sellers, many more cash buyers... and so on...

What there still is is the following: When there is a bull-market (i know this term is normally used when you investing in stocks), people are blinded by the possible yields but when there is a bear market, people are
blinded by their skepticism. But before explaining this i would like to use also use Psycholics and manipulation by driving money in a recovery, so let me explain.

At first glance it seems to be really good opportunity to buy now. I am not concentrating me on just
SFL market but the whole market. Why? Because when it turns-out badly, Cape Coral will unfortunately
be involved. When i looked to the market 3 years ago, i was not yet on a point to emigrate to a new country.
Would i have been ready back then, i could do the best opportunity to buy a house in the US.
In 2011 i was more likely to emigrate and i began to focus on the US-market. I like sun, i like
a good neighborhood with friendly people, i dislike snow an cold and so felt on SFL, on top of that i found a
realtor who was also from my country but who lives in the state for many years. Friends (older) of me bought some houses, so i decided to sell my properties here and to invest the money. In my way to sell
the properties i faced troubles. Things were changed, there was need for new subdividings which could result
in a long time waiting. Still today i am waiting for approval to sell. Enough about that...

So, my decision was made to make the step once i have the money. Meanwhile prices go up very quickly,
we are still far away from were they are in 2005-2006. But, i became to search why they did rise that hard...
If you look during the recession there were more than one cities that faced many foreclosures.
The SFL was hardly hit during the recession, but other market were even harder.
In some places of the country they felt as low as the level reached in the late 80s.

It is very common that cities which were hit the hardest, would be the cities that could see a better return.
And that is what you see now, not on SFL is bouncing back but also AR and LA...
But what is the cause of the return? Imo it is because it is driven by to factors.

Psycologic and manipulation. There is lot of money pumped in the economy which is an attempt to try
to help the economy. Not only in the economy there is lot of money pumped, but also in housing.
Banks could with that money hold foreclosures, longer from the market, but also they felt comfortable
to keep defaulters longer in there houses.

This turned out in a decrease of the foreclosures, a sign that the market finally could improve.
Also this provided more confidence for the people, they were thinking; Finally this mess comes to an ending,
That was what i also thought at first glance. But when you look at the numbers and see how much money
was needed to cause this revival, you can see that this is just a temporary reanimation.
Imo, an attempt to bring the level of fore closings down and to increase the prices so that less family's will
be out of the danger zone.

This turns out in a sign to buy, they created an artificial bottom. Big spenders buying houses by 1000's other
small investors buying a property or also more properties. This resulted in a sign that the market is improving. First time buyers and many second home buyers did a really good opportunity to increase
there savings by buying when the market was low.

Unfortunately, imo this is not a healthy market because it isn't an organic market. Also on top of that
is the global economy, imo the market was not yet ripe for such an increase. If prices go up further,
there is a chance that the investors will leave the market as quickly as they came. Because investors working with yield objectives, once that is reached, they dump and look for other opportunities.
I am not saying that this is the fact in SFL, but in other hardly hit markets, it is like that.

The mortgage rates are historical low as well, this will provide that people who qualify to borrow
will buy a house. I don't know how many starters there our in Cape Coral but i hope there will enough
if you want a healthy market. On top of that there is the shadow inventory of foreclosures and a high amount
of people who are currently under water. Maybe this will decrease more once the prices are rises enough to reach the break-even point.

If i look at my situation, i need a house just to live in, no need for pools or canals or other nice things.
With the money i will receive i can buy cash but it will be more difficult to find something recent.
There is more competition which will result in increasing prices further in the year. But i am sure
about the fact that is a created recovery and not a recovery as result of a self cured market.
Imo that is what lacks, because buying a house is something that you do maybe twice in your live and therefor i don't want to face another degradation of the market. But with a manipulated market (a market that is pushed in a direction, chances of bad endings or more likely than ever.

If i was still blind to see that there was no help i would offcourse have thought that this was the real turning
point. But imo they just moved away the turning point and within some years, this will result in a degradation. That is why i'm thinking that it should be good to step out of the market once you feel comfortable because there is a huge chance that this fairytale will see a very horrible ending.
And this will affect many of us.

The best thing imo is when you need a house, then buy the most affordable that you can pay.
My friends will possible face a big problem because they bought houses in the upper class. This will
result that they could be more affected when things turn out badly. If you buy cheap, chances are that you will not mind as hard the possible loss.

Once again, this is my opinion about the situation, and if you look macro economics there is a possible chance of the badly ending, even when you look at the schiller index, there is room for more decrease.

I promised to keep my mouth shut down, but i wanted to tell you this last thing about the market.
Can you imagine how hard it actually is to explain this in a language which is not my native language.

Just be careful, do what you feel what is right, i feel that it is better to stay away for now.
May be i am the one who is wrong, but i follow my heart which tells me to wait.

All the best, just do what you feel...
I hope it will all ending well for the families, but i regret that nothing is learned about 2008.
Not from your side, but governmental... We can't heal debt with making more debt.
This will all result in expensive money wasted, the taxpayer will be the victim...

All the best mates...
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