Is the Fort Myers single-family housing market beginning to cool off?

[sunshinewi]

We just spent a month in Cape looking at homes. We had bought a nice 1500 sf home with pool for 125,000 in 2013. Plan was to be snowbirds jan - march. Now we are thinking we will be spending 8 months in Cape so thought we would upsize. We realized in we would have to go to minimum of 200,000 to upgrade. Homes at 180 were comparable to ours. These homes fly off the market. All the homes we looked at were gone within a week.
im very interested in this thread, although i dont pretend to understand it all. We want to take some time to think about what we want and what area we wish to live in, and then come back in fall to buy. The way prices have been rising, we are a little concerned about waiting.
But on the flip side, we are also wondering if it really is a good investment now. Boomers will die off and with climate change and dirty water, what would our investment be worth in years to come? Nhkev, you mentioned you would not invest except in nw homes. Did you mean to buy as investment like a rental property or just to buy?
We do have a decent house that with about 25,000 worth of upgrades would still be worth less than what it would sell for. Should we wait and see where prices go?
I know we dont have crystal balls and no one can predict things, but just asking if anyone has any thoughts.
And thanks for this thread. Very interesting.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by nhkev

thanks, especially for the pending sales data. I expected sales to be down a little due to new mortgage regulations and disclosures that went into effect in 2016. One could also expect with the stock market correction at the beginning of the year that the wealth effect would negatively impact sales. Negative headlines regarding Lake O discharges and a milder winter up north certainly don't help either. All of these are short term issues and most should correct themselves in the upcoming months when the bulk of the closings happen. The stat that I always give the most credence to is the active listings increasing or decreasing vs months of inventory. They are what drive the prices and the direction they are going more than the anything.
a normal market does not go up double digits each year on end. to start seeing some fluctuations of inventories and sales and prices going up and down month to month would certainly be what the market needs in order to avoid another over inflated market that will lead to a bust.

March numbers have been released and it is beginning to show a trend of lower sales, higher inventories, and higher prices. This is certainly a sign that the market has cooled off. This is not a sign of an upcoming bust but the prices should stabilize. it may continue to swing too far in the wrong direction for a little while which could cause a correction. but the shift to a sellers market into a balanced market should happen if it hasn't already started now.

[Mr Cape Coral]

There are so many factors that affect the housing market. Waiting for Baby Boomers to die off could take a while, most are not close to death.
What most people do not know is that the 2nd Quarter of the year, in Lee County, produces the most sales of the year.
So, we can not tell what the overall market is doing.

Sales in March 2016 were down 13.2% over March 2015.
Median Sales Price in March 2016 was up 4.2% over March 2015, Median Sales price was $216,000.

What is interesting to note is the closed sales by Price Point in March 2016 over March 2015:
Less than $50,000 sales were down 66.7%, because there are very few units left on the market to buy.
$50,000-99,999 was down 37% again low inventory.
$100,000-149,999 was down 30.4% also low inventory
$150,000-199,999 was up 11.1%, more inventory and buyers for lower price had to move up in price to buy.

[rikoshaprl]

I wonder what higher priced homes have done.

[Compression]

Originally Posted by rikoshaprl

I wonder what higher priced homes have done.

Single family.......$200-249,999 -4.3% / $250-299,999 -13.2% / $300-399,999 -5.3%

Condos, in respect to the same price point categories....... -8.3% / -39.3% / -36.8%

Condos were also down in the $150-199,999 slot by 4.4%, where the single family number was up by the 11.1% mentioned by MrCC. That single family category was the only category that showed a positive number.

Condos moving to a buyer market........

CN.......

[rikoshaprl]

Thanks CN.

Usually lower inventory means higher prices if there is a demand. Are there people looking but not buying because they can't find a home? Or not as many people looking to buy?

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by rikoshaprl

Thanks CN.

Usually lower inventory means higher prices if there is a demand. Are there people looking but not buying because they can't find a home? Or not as many people looking to buy?

just a guess, but inventories rose by around 60 homes. according to a quick search on Zillow in Cape Coral there were 203 listings that were built in 2015 or newer. some of these could be spec homes that are not built yet. but with the rise of median price it makes the gap between existing and new smaller which should help control the prices of existing homes.