Real Estate Agents here? (Jacksonville, Tampa: condos, motels, home)

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by yachtcare

Yes, but keep in mind, the sales are still DOWN 13% year over year, and the median price is DOWN 11.5%, to $210,000.00 from same time last year. National number averages, or course. It is those DOWN numbers that are driving the 9.6% UP numbers.

Regarding the earlier article. The fact that the whitehouse would revise their numbers for the next year, is, to many, indicative that the numbers will likely be even worse. Like you say, all in how you look at it. At this point, I personally dont take what the gubmint tells me at face value any longer. The future "revisions" pretty typically tend to be toward the negative.

Yes that is all true. If anyone can find one post that I have ever written that says that I am expecting home prices to go up to 2006 levels within the next 2 yrs , show it to me. If I really had to cement my position down of where I think house prices will go here it is. Back in 2001 a 1100 sq ft ranch about 10 yrs old in the lakes region of New Hampshire were appraising at $125k. New Hampshire went through a real estate bust late 80's and 90's and this price was about what most considered fair market value. Now in a normal real estate market homes appreciate about 3-5% per yr which would be roughly $5k a year not compouded. so by 2006 it would be normal for the house to appraise at $150k but the appraisals were coming back around $225k, thus the bubble bursting. So to back track under normal market conditions that ranch in 2009 should be about $168k which is 25% lower than it's 2006 mark. Now in Nh most property values have fallen 25% So do I think they are going to have a V shape recovery? NO. I think that when the supply vs demand finds an equillibrium it will start to return to normal 3-5% which means it would take about 9 yrs to get back to 2006 levels. I had to review every single appraisal that was done in my branch , and there were a lot. Now Florida is a different market than New Hampshire (obviously) But the thing that is similar is somewhere along the lines a "true value" is going to be established. There are different things that will go into determining that but that is a different post. And I do not have a timeline of when I think this is going to happen.

[twobums]

Interesting article... 4 signs your home is about to lose value... sounds a lot like Lee County FL:

4 Signs Your Home Is About to Lose Value - AOL Real Estate


The increasing unemployment paragraph is thought provoking.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by twobums

Interesting article... 4 signs your home is about to lose value... sounds a lot like Lee County FL:

4 Signs Your Home Is About to Lose Value - AOL Real Estate


The increasing unemployment paragraph is thought provoking.

There is an example of an unbiased news article, there's no slant. It's just informative.

[movetoflorida]

Originally Posted by twobums

Interesting article... 4 signs your home is about to lose value... sounds a lot like Lee County FL:

4 Signs Your Home Is About to Lose Value - AOL Real Estate


The increasing unemployment paragraph is thought provoking.

Amazing how different reports can appear. I think it all boils down to supply and demand for a given local area. Looks like the supply versus demand pendulum has swung back in my favor here in VA. Just hoping I can get in on the bubble. I don't want to buy in SWF though until or if the economy turns the corner and at least stabalizes. Of course that will mean that house prices will start to go back up there. Sounds like I want to "have my cake and eat it too". It will all come down to timing. Guess I just have to keep my fingers crossed.

[twobums]

movetoflorida ~ no one wants to catch a falling knife! A friend bought a 3/2/2 in Cape Coral 10 months ago. It was a foreclosure and she paid 100K... and was thrilled at the time. Now, the same homes are 30 to 40% cheaper, and she is not so happy now. Timing the bottom is not so easy.


With so much supply and shadow inventory, it might be a long time till the bottom is reached.

[movetoflorida]

Originally Posted by 121804

Really, does SWFL need MORE new construction homes?
If anything, I'd wish they tear down half of the khaki/beige ranch style homes with the same floorplan and same half-a$$ cheap landscaping that is the same in every division & is about as appealing as a trip to the dentist for a root canal without novacaine and great parks & open areas.
I know it's not practical nor going to happen, but honestly, some of the ugliest new construction homes w/ shotty craftmanship can be found in SWFL followed by Las Vegas. At least SOCAL has the mountains in the background to give some reprise to the blah. I've been to all 3 places; lived in SWFL and SOCAL and just get really bored with the new construction.

And why is it all khaki beige? In 5 years the homes look 20 years old after the sun beats the heck out of it. Is there a reason for the color due to the heat issue in SWFL?

Yes, I do truly want to know

nhkev- when you buy an existing home, you also can employ many....renovators, repairman, contrators and so on. We bought a 57yr old home that was in amazing condition b/c that is what we could AFFORD even with estimated repairs (minor electric & minor remodeling in main bath/kitchen). And we did employ 4 different people over the first 12 months.

Clay colored siding was popular when I built my house. Siding expands and contracts drastically with temperature change and can buckle or leave gaps if not installed properly. Dark colors do absorb more heat from the sun and would fade and expand even more. Dark is better in the shade as it radiates heat away (car engines and radiators are black) but light colors are better in the sun as it reflects the sun's rays. I have never understood why I see so many florida cars that are black with black tinted windows. Your hand must fry as soon as you touch the car!

[Compression]

Originally Posted by movetoflorida

Clay colored siding was popular when I built my house. Siding expands and contracts drastically with temperature change and can buckle or leave gaps if not installed properly. Dark colors do absorb more heat from the sun and would fade and expand even more. Dark is better in the shade as it radiates heat away (car engines and radiators are black) but light colors are better in the sun as it reflects the sun's rays. I have never understood why I see so many florida cars that are black with black tinted windows. Your hand must fry as soon as you touch the car!

Right on the money with the colors. The darker the color, the sooner the intense UV from the sun washes out, or fades the color. Making paint maintenance a more frequent, and costly venture. And also holds the heat, making your energy bills higher, as the AC needs to work longer to cool the interior.

As for black cars, it's all preference, but, IMHO, nothing looks better on any car, than a flawless, shiney black paint job. It is hot though......

[movetoflorida]

Originally Posted by yachtcare

Right on the money with the colors. The darker the color, the sooner the intense UV from the sun washes out, or fades the color. Making paint maintenance a more frequent, and costly venture. And also holds the heat, making your energy bills higher, as the AC needs to work longer to cool the interior.

As for black cars, it's all preference, but, IMHO, nothing looks better on any car, than a flawless, shiney black paint job. It is hot though......

Flawless black is nice and has the deepest shine but flawless is the key. It is the first to show dirt, scratches and dents too. Of course we are starting to get off subject now. Need to switch to the sports car forum or something..heehee

[Compression]

Originally Posted by twobums

movetoflorida ~ no one wants to catch a falling knife! A friend bought a 3/2/2 in Cape Coral 10 months ago. It was a foreclosure and she paid 100K... and was thrilled at the time. Now, the same homes are 30 to 40% cheaper, and she is not so happy now. Timing the bottom is not so easy.


With so much supply and shadow inventory, it might be a long time till the bottom is reached.

Excellent point. Timing is everything. And I guess we all have to go with our own opinion. Taking many factors into account, both local, and national trends, I think we're still a year, maybe more before we see a bottom in SW Florida. Alot of the investors are gonna get burned. Time will tell.

Just the general mood of the folks I talk to here, gets a little more angry day by day. With rising taxes, police activity, city council shenanigans, etc. etc. etc. I see more people wanting out, than those that want to stay. But, hey, what do I know?

[nhkev]

can't disagree with 121804 with the conformity of the houses. My son is constantly "hey there's our house" . No that's not ours it just looks like ours. "Is that our house?" No that's not ours either.... good thing they have numbers on them.