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Old 08-18-2009, 07:40 AM
 
57 posts, read 167,203 times
Reputation: 24

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Hi is there any real estate agents in this forum or mortgage brokers?
Where do you see the housing market going down there?
I see alot of homes being sold quickly in the Cape. IS this only investors buying?
Or is it actually home owners like families or out of state people moving in?
I only ask because then your housing situation is not correcting itself. And I will wait then to buy.
If investors buy they will be sitting on these homes just like the prior home owner they bought from. I have heard speculation from banks and agents here in NJ that claim that the housing market is not done going down in SW florida. That right now its just investors buying up homes and waiting out. But that you are in for another small crash.
So my question is what do you think being in the front lines of sales?

 
Old 08-18-2009, 08:36 AM
 
Location: Florida Space Coast
2,356 posts, read 5,061,305 times
Reputation: 1571
I will say this ... many have been bought by investors, not just to flip but to rent out. many have been buying 20-100 different properties. there is a low inventory of single family homes under 200k. Foreclosures are down which is going against the national trend which are up. the negative posters didn't say that though. there were foreclosure filings of 1 in every 14 homes at the peak it's now something like 1 in 64. I will say that prices seem to have been stabilized the past 6 months as far as not going down and come november you'll start seeing stats saying year over year flat figures. With those things said , here is the other side. With unemployment high more people will lose their homes that will keep prices low. you will not get a housing recovery without jobs. there have been problems with appraisals stopping deals from going through so it's putting a false cap on allowing prices to go higher. I wouldn't be rushing to buy thinking you will miss the boat , get to know the area and when you find the right one, not just the lowest price it will be the time to buy. there are a couple posters that seem to have a negative tone but read through their past posts they are yachtcare and hiknapster they are full of good info and both have reason why they are negative see if any of them apply to your situation.
 
Old 08-18-2009, 09:29 AM
 
57 posts, read 167,203 times
Reputation: 24
Thank you so much for the incite. I wish the other two posters that you mention would just state hey this is why i think its so bad. But they state certain things that are open ended and make you wonder without knowing them.
I really do appreciate your feedback. Im going to plan a trip there in the next 3 weeks and talk with my company and look around.
So are you an agent?
if so send me an email maybe we can talk business...
thanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by nhkev View Post
I will say this ... many have been bought by investors, not just to flip but to rent out. many have been buying 20-100 different properties. there is a low inventory of single family homes under 200k. Foreclosures are down which is going against the national trend which are up. the negative posters didn't say that though. there were foreclosure filings of 1 in every 14 homes at the peak it's now something like 1 in 64. I will say that prices seem to have been stabilized the past 6 months as far as not going down and come november you'll start seeing stats saying year over year flat figures. With those things said , here is the other side. With unemployment high more people will lose their homes that will keep prices low. you will not get a housing recovery without jobs. there have been problems with appraisals stopping deals from going through so it's putting a false cap on allowing prices to go higher. I wouldn't be rushing to buy thinking you will miss the boat , get to know the area and when you find the right one, not just the lowest price it will be the time to buy. there are a couple posters that seem to have a negative tone but read through their past posts they are yachtcare and hiknapster they are full of good info and both have reason why they are negative see if any of them apply to your situation.
 
Old 08-18-2009, 09:47 AM
 
Location: Florida Space Coast
2,356 posts, read 5,061,305 times
Reputation: 1571
I am not an agent , I have a couple properties in cape coral, one that is a second home and the other is a future site of a primary residence. you can click on the posters names and read all posts by individuals. Sometimes it is said that you may not like to hear the negative when you're looking for positive feedback , and there are those that just rant and bring absolutely nothing to the table, but those two usually back up what they say with articles, data links etc. which is valuable whether you like the news or not... trust me I have no use for people that spew negative stuff which is against all data... "prices are falling every day" No they're not they are lower than they were 14 months ago but higher than they were 30 days ago. "glut of inventory" NO , inventories went from a 21 months supply to a 4 month supply. some of them bought their house s at the peak of the market and we're suppose to follow any of their advice regarding real estate?
 
Old 08-18-2009, 12:00 PM
 
Location: Palm Island and North Port
7,511 posts, read 22,819,850 times
Reputation: 2874
Quote:
Originally Posted by nj593 View Post
Hi is there any real estate agents in this forum or mortgage brokers?
Where do you see the housing market going down there?
I see alot of homes being sold quickly in the Cape. IS this only investors buying?
Or is it actually home owners like families or out of state people moving in?
I only ask because then your housing situation is not correcting itself. And I will wait then to buy.
If investors buy they will be sitting on these homes just like the prior home owner they bought from. I have heard speculation from banks and agents here in NJ that claim that the housing market is not done going down in SW florida. That right now its just investors buying up homes and waiting out. But that you are in for another small crash.
So my question is what do you think being in the front lines of sales?
It seems like the housing market is stabilizing at little. At least in the short run. I sell just a little bit north of The Cape and the trends seem to be running pretty close in all of SW Florida.

We are currently seeing homes prices stay pretty even, maybe a slight decrease but not anything like in months past. Another interesting thing is that we are seeing more homes come off the market (pending and sold) then going on the market. The Cape's market is pretty similar to what North Port is doing. Right now we have four months of inventory.

I list a lot of bank owned homes and I seem to be getting a lot more orders for homes in the last few weeks. I have many homes sitting in my prelist. which is where they go to prepare them for being put on the market. So, we may see another wave of foreclosures coming on. Many of these homes seem to be in the higher price ranges. For instance, I have a home that will be going on for around $850K with 150' for waterfront on Manasota Key. Still a good deal but higher than most of the homes that are currently coming on the market.

Now, talking about buyers. Many/most of my recent buyers have been all cash and have been people looking for a second home. Most of them are not retiring yet but since the prices are so good they want to buy now and hold onto the home for when they retire and move down here permanently.

So, to answer your question about the investors. Yes, they are buying but not nearly in the numbers of second home buyers. I would say almost 10 to 1 ratio in favor of the second home buyers.

Here's some recent stats I pulled for some areas further north of The Cape. I'm seeing about a year's worth of inventory of less in most areas. Hope this helps!

Venice
# of listings in Venice= 657 active listings
# of listings sold from July 15-Aug 15: 78
# of listings sold from June 15-July 15: 100
# of listings sold from May 15-June 15: 96
# of listings sold from Apr 15-May 15: 95
# of listings sold from Mar 15-Apr 15: 83
# of listings sold from Feb 15-Mar 15: 55
507 homes sold in the last six months in Venice. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Venice: 85 homes
#sold (85 homes) X 12 (months) = 1020
divide 1020 by 52 weeks= 20 units per week
If 20 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 20 divided by 657 = 33 weeks of inventory or a little a little more than 8 months worth of inventory in Venice


North Port
# of listings in North Port= 610 active listings
# of listings sold from July 13-August 13: 125
# of listings sold from June 13-July 13: 133
# of listings sold from May 13-June 13: 156
# of listings sold from Apr 13-May 13: 172
# of listings sold from Mar 13-Apr 13: 167
# of listings sold from Feb 13-Mar 13: 182
935 homes sold in the last six months in NP. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in NP: 156 homes
#sold (156 homes) X 12 (months) = 1872
divide 1872 by 52 weeks= 36 units per week
If 36 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 36 divided by 610 = 17 weeks is the
absorption rate or a little over 4 months of inventory in North Port.

Port Charlotte
# of listings in Port Charlotte= 1033 active listings
# of listings sold from July 13-Aug 13: 140
# of listings sold from June 13-July 13: 109
# of listings sold from May 13-June 13: 200
# of listings sold from Apr 13-May 13: 183
# of listings sold from Mar 13-Apr 13: 163
# of listings sold from Feb 13-Mar 13: 148
943 homes sold in the last six months in PC. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in PC: 157 homes
#sold (157 homes) X 12 (months) = 1884
divide 1884 by 52 weeks= 36 units per week
If 36 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 36 divided by 1884 = 52 weeks is the
absorption rate or about 1 years worth of inventory in Port Charlotte.

Sarasota
# of listings in Sarasota= 2072 active listings
# of listings sold from July 13-Aug 13: 238
# of listings sold from June-13-July 13: 236
# of listings sold from May 13-June 13: 288
# of listings sold from Apr 13-May 13: 261
# of listings sold from Mar 13-Apr 13: 228
# of listings sold from Feb 13-Mar 13: 206
1457 homes sold in the last six months in Sarasota. Average number of homes sold per month over the last 6 months in Sarasota: 243 homes
#sold (243 homes) X 12 (months) = 2916
divide 2916 by 52 weeks= 56 units per week
If 56 units sell each week divide that number into the number of active listings 56 divided by 2916 = 52 weeks of inventory or a years worth of inventory in Sarasota.
 
Old 08-18-2009, 01:33 PM
 
Location: Cape Coral, Fl
17 posts, read 53,156 times
Reputation: 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by nj593 View Post
Hi is there any real estate agents in this forum or mortgage brokers?
Where do you see the housing market going down there?
I see alot of homes being sold quickly in the Cape. IS this only investors buying?
Or is it actually home owners like families or out of state people moving in?
I only ask because then your housing situation is not correcting itself. And I will wait then to buy.
If investors buy they will be sitting on these homes just like the prior home owner they bought from. I have heard speculation from banks and agents here in NJ that claim that the housing market is not done going down in SW florida. That right now its just investors buying up homes and waiting out. But that you are in for another small crash.
So my question is what do you think being in the front lines of sales?
Hi,
I am a licensed real estate agent working in the Cape Coral/Fort Myers area. There are too many investors buying in the Lehigh Acres area at this time. In the Cape, it seems to be more second home buyers. Since the first of the year the market has been quietly turning around. Our inventory of Single Family homes is down to less than 4 months worth... which is a normal market. For the past 3 months, more houses have gone 'pending' than have gone 'active', meaning our inventory is shrinking. The inventory of foreclosures is less than 1 month. The mortgage broker I work with says that local bankers are lending, but national/out-of-area bankers still see this as a declining market. Sale prices have been very close to or slightly over listing price since March 09. Our market has stopped the decline, it's just that the word isn't out on a national level yet.
 
Old 08-18-2009, 02:59 PM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,584 posts, read 54,033,362 times
Reputation: 13612
Quote:
Originally Posted by nj593 View Post
I wish the other two posters that you mention would just state hey this is why i think its so bad. But they state certain things that are open ended and make you wonder without knowing them.
Read our other posts. Since you have been so gosh-darn nice, I prefer not to spend any more of my time spelling it out to you.

I will say this. We left in the height of the housing boom. My husband was an auto mechanic foreman. I worked at Sony. That should tell you something.

I told you, after five weeks I pulled our kid out of the school system and headed to Knoxville. That is pretty plain. If you want more details, then read the previous posts.

If we give you the details, these agents are not going to like it. And this thead is addressed to agents, so why was I brought up?
 
Old 08-18-2009, 03:34 PM
 
340 posts, read 1,041,215 times
Reputation: 174
Lehigh will always be the armpit of the area as far as reputation goes, with Cape Coral close behind because of the constant tax / water expansion /bridge tolls issues that come up with Cape Coral.
The Cape has some beautiful areas and houses, but the whole Government Giant that sprouted up their will run that city down until it gets trimmed back. They have more police and firefighters than a Huge city up north
 
Old 08-18-2009, 04:14 PM
 
3,842 posts, read 10,476,147 times
Reputation: 3206
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrcoolmrcool28 View Post
Personal attacks?? I'm just saying
Port Charlotte...I'm just sayin'

And what do you do when you post?...I'm just sayin'

There are posters who come on after reading several posts, ask a question in a manner that they see causes controversy, and do it for the sake of entertainment.

While I don't agree with 99.9% of the things that you post and find some of your posts just as insulting, it's a well known fact that you are a legit poster.

As long as you keep responding to posts as if you live there and have earned an income to support a family when in reality you don't live there and are only retiring there...it's keeps things "interesting".

I find the posts about most sales being for second homes quite fascinating. Wonder why that is??? Why aren't young families who don't like the cold moving down there in droves since there are some deals & there are free beaches and fish? Hmmmm
 
Old 08-18-2009, 04:20 PM
 
Location: Nebuchadnezzar
968 posts, read 2,055,833 times
Reputation: 348
What are Winters like? Is it best to buy a sfh or condo for a second home? Where are the best areas? Are most of the sales foreclosures?
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