. Florida’s recovery will lag nation (Tampa, Cape Coral: short sale, real estate, 2013)

[KasperFile]

“Stan Humphries, chief economist for housing research firm Zillow, said today that Florida will take longer to recover from the real estate recession than other states hit similarly hard by the crash. The reason; the number of foreclosures mired in the court system. With an estimated half-a-million foreclosures bogged down in Florida’s courts and more home loans defaulting every day, Humphries said Florida’s improvement has stalemated.”

“‘Florida is still such a challenging market because foreclosures are not being processed very quickly,’ Humphries said. ‘Florida is still seeing monthly depreciation rates.’”

“‘The bottom is going to be a long and flat affair,’ said Humphries, who called consumers ‘overly optimistic’ in their beliefs on the economic recovery. ‘The myth out there is the housing slump is over.’”


Source: The Palm Beach Post in Florida



Florida's housing slump is years from recovery

Housing prices may hit bottom later this year in many parts of the country, but 7 million homes on the verge of foreclosure will keep states like Florida from improving until at least 2013.

Florida's market, which has been mired in foreclosures during the economic downturn, likely hasn't seen the worst of delinquencies, said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate company Zillow.com.

Humphries spoke on a panel with two other top real estate experts Friday at a conference of the National Association of Real Estate Editors in Austin. They painted a bleak future for real estate.

"Florida has a big shadow inventory of homes that will go into foreclosure," Humphries said. "We expect prices to bottom in the third quarter in many markets, but Florida and Tampa Bay will lag behind."

After prices stop declining, Zillow predicts values to remain flat for three to five years. However, consumers tend to be overly optimistic, he said. That's partly because recent housing reports have showed sales increasing by double-digits.

"While that's true," he said. "Inventory jumped up in April. Twice as many homes joined the market than sold. Inventory levels are back to July 2009 levels - before the tax credits."

Another problem, said Fannie Mae economist Douglas Duncan, is so-called strategic defaults, when homeowners choose to walk away from their homes, even if they can afford their mortgage payments.

Duncan said a recent survey of 3,500 homeowners showed that borrowers are twice as likely to consider walking away if they know someone who has chosen to default. That will add to the homes already in the foreclosure pipeline.


Source: Tampa bay online

[nhkev]

I am just curious why you posted this on the cape coral/ ft myers forum since you don't live there, don't own any property there , aren't thinking of buying there and most importantly it pertains less to cape coral than most of the state?

[Ken E]

That pretty much pertains to the whole state.

[nhkev]

I will respectfully disagree for just a couple examples. Humphries states "despite dbl digit sales the past few months". Cape coral had triple digit sales for the last 24 months. He stated further depreciaiton monthly til 3rd qtr. The are has had an increasing monthly for 10 of the last 12 months and a yr over year increase in price. He cited increase In inventories cape coral went from like 5500 last year to 2200 this year. So as I said although the things he is saying about florida is true it is not as pertinent to this area.

[nhkev]

As far as humphies premise is regarding. Foreclosures being bogged in the courts as his reasoning for why florida's recovery will lag ......... I understand humprhies reasoning that it prolonging the inevitable , slowing down the process, and will eventually add to inventories. I do not research any other market besides cape coral so his opnion may be valid in the rest of the state but here is what I think he may be missing on the other end

Yes florida does slow the process down because it is a judicial state where the other states he is refering to are not. Although it slows down the lenders ability to foreclose it also gives the homeowner more time to either get gov't assisstance work out a loan mod or sell the house short sale. What this translates is that florida has a lower rate of initial filings that actually make it to the point of foreclosure.

The other reason why I do not think it pertains to cape coral as much is because the end result of his premise is that these backlogs will result in more bank reo properties that will add to inventories. This again may be true for the state but through researching actuaal foreclosure notices in lee county only 25% are translating into an reo and the amount that is selling on the courthouse steps is outpacing new filings coming in.

[yoko]

Originally Posted by KasperFile

“Stan Humphries, chief economist for housing research firm Zillow, said today that Florida will take longer to recover from the real estate recession than other states hit similarly hard by the crash. The reason; the number of foreclosures mired in the court system. With an estimated half-a-million foreclosures bogged down in Florida’s courts and more home loans defaulting every day, Humphries said Florida’s improvement has stalemated.”

“‘Florida is still such a challenging market because foreclosures are not being processed very quickly,’ Humphries said. ‘Florida is still seeing monthly depreciation rates.’”

“‘The bottom is going to be a long and flat affair,’ said Humphries, who called consumers ‘overly optimistic’ in their beliefs on the economic recovery. ‘The myth out there is the housing slump is over.’”


Source: The Palm Beach Post in Florida



Florida's housing slump is years from recovery

Housing prices may hit bottom later this year in many parts of the country, but 7 million homes on the verge of foreclosure will keep states like Florida from improving until at least 2013.

Florida's market, which has been mired in foreclosures during the economic downturn, likely hasn't seen the worst of delinquencies, said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate company Zillow.com.

Humphries spoke on a panel with two other top real estate experts Friday at a conference of the National Association of Real Estate Editors in Austin. They painted a bleak future for real estate.

"Florida has a big shadow inventory of homes that will go into foreclosure," Humphries said. "We expect prices to bottom in the third quarter in many markets, but Florida and Tampa Bay will lag behind."

After prices stop declining, Zillow predicts values to remain flat for three to five years. However, consumers tend to be overly optimistic, he said. That's partly because recent housing reports have showed sales increasing by double-digits.

"While that's true," he said. "Inventory jumped up in April. Twice as many homes joined the market than sold. Inventory levels are back to July 2009 levels - before the tax credits."

Another problem, said Fannie Mae economist Douglas Duncan, is so-called strategic defaults, when homeowners choose to walk away from their homes, even if they can afford their mortgage payments.

Duncan said a recent survey of 3,500 homeowners showed that borrowers are twice as likely to consider walking away if they know someone who has chosen to default. That will add to the homes already in the foreclosure pipeline.


Source: Tampa bay online

Cape Coral is the center of the problem.

[seeriously]

Well, we all know how accurate Zillow is.

[KasperFile]

Originally Posted by nhkev

I am just curious why you posted this on the cape coral/ ft myers forum since you don't live there, don't own any property there , aren't thinking of buying there and most importantly it pertains less to cape coral than most of the state?

ON THE Contrary!!! I own several lee county properties, 6 residential canal lots ½ block purchased way back in the 80s in Lehigh Acres boarding what once was a the Lehigh Acres county club and now a weed infested field. I’m also half owner in 2.6 acre commercial perusal in SW cape down by the bamini basin it was zoned for marina until the county zoning board pulled our zoning leaving us with a useless zoning for another retail strip mall or restaurant witch we all know the cape doesn’t need. Overall I have a little more than a half million vested in lee and yes it’s all on the market now

[nhkev]

Thanks for clarifying. Based off your first post about spending 2 days to attend a wedding it left me scratching my head why someone would become an active member on this forum. My apologies for assuming, thanks for sharing your opinions on this board

[rikoshaprl]

Originally Posted by KasperFile

ON THE Contrary!!! I own several lee county properties, 6 residential canal lots ½ block purchased way back in the 80s in Lehigh Acres boarding what once was a the Lehigh Acres county club and now a weed infested field. I’m also half owner in 2.6 acre commercial perusal in SW cape down by the bamini basin it was zoned for marina until the county zoning board pulled our zoning leaving us with a useless zoning for another retail strip mall or restaurant witch we all know the cape doesn’t need. Overall I have a little more than a half million vested in lee and yes it’s all on the market now

I hope you are successful selling your properties but I don't see how constantly bashing the area will help you.