2030 MSA Population predictions (cost of living, offices, exodus)

[hew2a]

Originally Posted by Guerilla

Chicago was never America's largest city. New Orleans, Galveston, Charleston, Savannah, those cities are just as old as any other American city. Houston started to build up around 1836.

Apologies...you're right about that. It never was. I'm thinking tallest buildings. But anyways...these are my opinions. I know the South has history and heritage, but I still believe that these cities began America's drive towards modernism. I don't feel that can be denied. We're getting into some opinion stuff, so before this get's crazy (as City-Data can get) I digress.

[SpeedyAZ]

Originally Posted by NewYorkcapitaloftheworld
This is my list the top ten largest American cities in 2030.
1. LA - 26 million
2. NYC - 25 million
3. Houston - 14.5 million
4. Chicago - 14.3 million
5. DFW - 14 million
6. D.C. - 13.5 million
7. SF Bay Area - 13 million
8. Boston - 12.8 million
9. Atlanta - 12.5 million
10. Miami - 11 million

The South and West coast cities are growing at a much faster rate than those on the East coast PLUS they also have more room to expand while those on the East coast are already built about as far as possible. My list:

1) LA- 25 million
2) NYC- 23 million
3) Houston- 14 million
4) DFW- 13.5 million
5) Chicago- 12 million
6) D.C.- 11.5 million
7) Atlanta- 10 million
8) Miami- 9 million
9) Boston- 9 million
10) Phoenix- 8 million

My guesstimate.

[Lucidus]

When I first looked at the OPs original numbers, I thought they were high but possible. But after looking at this link:

Metropolitan Statistical Area (CBSA) Population and Components of Change

I have to come to the conclusion that those numbers are ridiculously high.

Here are my estimates for the metro areas given in the original post for 2030. I am using the metropolitan definitions as given by the link above.

Methodology: I simply averaged the annual growth rates of the given areas since 1970. I then assumed that each metro would continue to grow at the average historical rate for the next 23 years. I know this won't actually happen but its the best data we have available. I won't go into my calculations here, but if anyone wants to see them, then PM me and I will send you the excel file. Populations given in millions.

NYC - 20.1
L.A. - 17.2
DFW - 11.0
Chicago - 10.8
Houston - 10.3
Atlanta - 10.2
Miami - 9.9
D.C. - 7.5
San Francisco - 5.1
Boston - 4.9

I do not beleive that these will be the top ten, especially not San Fran and Boston. I only compared the areas given in the original post.

[Guerilla]

That is a bad way to do it. Many cities had bad economies at different times. For example, Houston lost about 60,000 people in the 80's. Its industries now are growing, so naturally the growth rate will be higher.

[Lucidus]

Originally Posted by Guerilla

That is a bad way to do it. Many cities had bad economies at different times. For example, Houston lost about 60,000 people in the 80's. Its industries now are growing, so naturally the growth rate will be higher.

I disagree that it is a bad way to do it. We never know when cities will have bad economies in the future. A lot too, I think depends on how the immigration debate turns out. Specifically illegal immigration. The census bureau does count illegals as well as it can so they are included in the numbers.

If the open borders side wins out then the numbers will probably be higher, esp. in the cities of the South West. If enforcement wins out we will probably see decreases in population growth. Also there is some evidence based on declining birth rates in Latin America, that illegal immigration may start to decrease naturally regardless of border policy. A major recession in the U.S. in the next 23 years could slow it down a lot as well.

Also a trend that I have noticed is that the larger areas have a slower annual rate of growth. New York is the largest and is growing slowly, about 0.3% a year. So we can expect some of the larger areas to experience slower growth in the future due to this trend.

[Spade]

I think those numbers are actually more realistic. Because I don't see Houston o Dallas coming close to 14 million. I also really have a hard time believing that Boston being a 4.9 million and San Francisco at 5.1 million will keep those cities in the top 10. Look at the game between San Francisco and Miami.

[Lucidus]

Originally Posted by Spade

I think those numbers are actually more realistic. Because I don't see Houston o Dallas coming close to 14 million. I also really have a hard time believing that Boston being a 4.9 million and San Francisco at 5.1 million will keep those cities in the top 10. Look at the game between San Francisco and Miami.

I am pretty confident that Boston will not be in the top ten, its growth since 1970 has been almost nil. San Francisco would look a lot better if I had included the San Jose metro area too but I didn't because the census bureau doesn't. If we were to add San Fran and San Jose together, they would be close to Miami.

[Guerilla]

I would just put Houston at 10.8 M and have Chicago down at 10.6 or so. The Census Bureau may not include San Jose with San Fran now, but they will by 2030. The areas are so connected already. Even BART is considering a rail line down to San Jose.

[CHICAGOLAND92]

Wow, NYC has been barely growing! ( according to the link by lucidus )

Anyways, I think that Sunbelt cities will soon have less people migrating towards them. Gas prices are probably going to get out of control, and the sprawled out cities that are hard to get around without a car will most likely become unappealing, unless they improve their public transportation.

[M TYPE X]

Originally Posted by CHICAGOLAND92

Anyways, I think that Sunbelt cities will soon have less people migrating towards them. Gas prices are probably going to get out of control, and the sprawled out cities that are hard to get around without a car will most likely become unappealing, unless they improve their public transportation.

Or ......................... people will realize that selling out the North is a bad thing and immoral, mmmmkay?

RIIIIIIIIIIIIIGHT...

No, I don't owe you a new keyboard. You're not supposed to spit out your beer like that!