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Who's to say that Houston doesn't have another decade like the 1980's? I mean, if we are to extrapolate the past 4 decades then there were three decades of growth and one of decline.
That one decade of decline means that Houston will never catch LA. It's possible but not probable to catch Chicago.
That was before Houston's economy became as diverse as it is now.
We have a thing called "green energy" nowadays.
Besides oil & energy there is medical, aerospace, finance, high tech, & last but not least the enormous amount of trade that does on through the Port of Houston.
That was before Houston's economy became as diverse as it is now.
We have a thing called "green energy" nowadays.
Besides oil & energy there is medical, aerospace, finance, high tech, & last but not least the enormous amount of trade that does on through the Port of Houston.
But if your argument involves passing LA, Greater LA has ALL of these things as well, and then some! I have no doubt that the Houston CSA will surpass the Chicago CSA in our lifetimes, the city proper will definitely surpass Chicago city because of the lax Texas annexation laws that allow Houston to have an endless sea of suburbia inside its city limits. Also Chicago's growth is pretty much stagnant, even metro Chicago's growth is pitiful at best. But surpassing Los Angeles? No way. Los Angeles is growing quickly as well, and is VASTLY larger in population. The LA CSA is over 17 million, catching up to NYC's 22 million pretty fast. Houston, fast as it may be growing, can't even touch that. Also Los Angeles is making massive infrastructure investments in heavy rail and commuter lines, and California is building a high speed rail system. The added density that will allow in the core of Los Angeles will be astounding, pushing its city proper up very very high. I might hate on LA's sprawl, but as an economic engine it is a giant. Los Angeles county, were it a state would be larger in population than all but 8 states. Also the Port of Long Beach and LA is one of the busiest ports in the world, and it will only grow as it will be one of the ports of choice with the boom from Asia.
I can agree to what Fork3000 said, Houston will not catch LA unless something catastrophic happens out west, and I pray that never happens. Houston is a growing beast and will continue to become a major player in the U.S economy. I said it before Houston will become the Nation's 3rd largest city someday.
But if your argument involves passing LA, Greater LA has ALL of these things as well, and then some! I have no doubt that the Houston CSA will surpass the Chicago CSA in our lifetimes, the city proper will definitely surpass Chicago city because of the lax Texas annexation laws that allow Houston to have an endless sea of suburbia inside its city limits. Also Chicago's growth is pretty much stagnant, even metro Chicago's growth is pitiful at best..
Never count Chicago out. Sure it is transitioning, and has hit a rough patch, but Chicago has a certain Phoenix-like ability to recover from its periodic funk. It's sort of like a snake that sheds its skin every once in awhile.
The seeds of a future Chicago boom are being laid for anyone to see. Jobs moving from the suburbs back to the city, along with the festest growing downtown population. I see this process accelerating in the coming decades. So much so that the urban core of Chicago will start to become its own source of growth, a virtual cycle. If this comes to pass, don't be surprised that the city's population starts to grow, and actually grow pretty quickly as the downtown becomes a massive population center.
"Within two miles of City Hall, Chicago had the largest population increase of any major urban area over the past decade, from 133,426 to 181,714, an increase of 36 percent (New York's grew by 37,422)."
If this city/state can solve their fiscal/education/crime issues...I see nothing stopping Chicago from adding surprisingly large numbers of new residents.
But if your argument involves passing LA, Greater LA has ALL of these things as well, and then some! I have no doubt that the Houston CSA will surpass the Chicago CSA in our lifetimes, the city proper will definitely surpass Chicago city because of the lax Texas annexation laws that allow Houston to have an endless sea of suburbia inside its city limits. Also Chicago's growth is pretty much stagnant, even metro Chicago's growth is pitiful at best. But surpassing Los Angeles? No way. Los Angeles is growing quickly as well, and is VASTLY larger in population. The LA CSA is over 17 million, catching up to NYC's 22 million pretty fast. Houston, fast as it may be growing, can't even touch that. Also Los Angeles is making massive infrastructure investments in heavy rail and commuter lines, and California is building a high speed rail system. The added density that will allow in the core of Los Angeles will be astounding, pushing its city proper up very very high. I might hate on LA's sprawl, but as an economic engine it is a giant. Los Angeles county, were it a state would be larger in population than all but 8 states. Also the Port of Long Beach and LA is one of the busiest ports in the world, and it will only grow as it will be one of the ports of choice with the boom from Asia.
I don't think we will ever see the Houston CSA surpass the Chicago CSA in our lifetimes. Chicago would have to completely self-destruct in order for that to happen. The Chicago CSA is nearly 10 million while the Houston CSA barely reaches over 6 million. Growth rates eventually slow down as cities and suburbs becomes more populated. I don't understand why people think Houston is magically immune from this.
The problem is California is growing pretty rapidly too. They got hit with the dot com bust and the housing bubble, but now they have finally shaken that off after a decade and are growing again pretty vigorously. Sure the percentage gains aren't as high, but the numerical gains are really similar just check the 2012 census estimates. California is HUGE, economically diverse, the center of world technology, world entertainment, etc. Texas can never build mountains, varied climates, Central Valley, Redwood forests, Yosemite, etc etc. California also is a massive oil producer. California is situated for the trade with Asian nations which will be booming over the next century more than anywhere else. Need I go on? So sorry, the future is not "in Texas," nor is it even in California either. They will continue to be two rapidly growing states with large populations. Texas can never build the things California has, and even what they build still isn't comparable. Detroit has been losing population for a half a century, that just isn't the case with Cali. Texas is a cool place, it has awesome cities with great future, but Texas isn't and never will be what California is. Sorry.
California is doing better now, but Southern California is dying. A prosperous north subsidizes a south that's a basket case.
California is doing better now, but Southern California is dying. A prosperous north subsidizes a south that's a basket case.
I mean everything is relative. In Cali "dying" is like not growing super fast. Most of the Midwest would kill for the growth rates of SoCal. But yes, Northern California does seem to be outpacing SoCal for the time being.
I think that we can all agree that it's only a matter of time when Houston should pass Chicago in city population considering nothing freakish happens in the future. My question is do you think that Houston has the potential to pass up LA in the future in city population? Before giving a NO answer consider the city zoning in Houston, scarcity of water out west, and also consider how much more undeveloped land remains in Houston, add these three to the equation and I myself believe that Houston can very well rise to the #2 position. If Houston densifies (which is inevitable IMO) and the zoning doesn't change I believe Houston should pass LA in the next 60 yrs., what do you guys think?
I don't really consider it a New York, Chicago, even Miami level city. No.
But if your argument involves passing LA, Greater LA has ALL of these things as well, and then some! I have no doubt that the Houston CSA will surpass the Chicago CSA in our lifetimes, the city proper will definitely surpass Chicago city because of the lax Texas annexation laws that allow Houston to have an endless sea of suburbia inside its city limits. Also Chicago's growth is pretty much stagnant, even metro Chicago's growth is pitiful at best. But surpassing Los Angeles? No way. Los Angeles is growing quickly as well, and is VASTLY larger in population. The LA CSA is over 17 million, catching up to NYC's 22 million pretty fast. Houston, fast as it may be growing, can't even touch that. Also Los Angeles is making massive infrastructure investments in heavy rail and commuter lines, and California is building a high speed rail system. The added density that will allow in the core of Los Angeles will be astounding, pushing its city proper up very very high. I might hate on LA's sprawl, but as an economic engine it is a giant. Los Angeles county, were it a state would be larger in population than all but 8 states. Also the Port of Long Beach and LA is one of the busiest ports in the world, and it will only grow as it will be one of the ports of choice with the boom from Asia.
True
It is large, but its not as large as Houston & Galveston's ports.
The Port of Houston ranks #1 in foreign tonnage & 2nd only to Southern Louisiana domestically. Texas has some of the largest sea ports in the nation, even larger than California's.
As you can see, Long Beach ranks 4th & Los Angeles ranks down the list at 13th.
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