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Great history! I can see Houston going until the 20% range but definitely not the 50% range!
I think the percentage will stay in the same general percentage. The US as a whole is getting more hispanic. No metro is really getting blacker. Not even atlanta.
I think the percentage will stay in the same general percentage. The US as a whole is getting more hispanic. No metro is really getting blacker. Not even atlanta.
Why? It's a pretty well-informed statement based on the stats. Certainly Atlanta will increase its population of Blacks in terms of raw numbers, but I don't see the overall percentages changing that much.
I think the percentage will stay in the same general percentage. The US as a whole is getting more hispanic. No metro is really getting blacker. Not even atlanta.
Really? I'm not trying to be "that guy," but do you have recent data for that? I have read the opposite. The general consensus is that the US will also become blacker, as well as more asian, hispanic, and mixed-race. As I understand it, non-hispanic whites will still enjoy plurality, but other groups will definitely grow in both raw numbers and percentages, including blacks.
This also makes sense.
Most blacks live in the South, a region (similar to the Midwest) that has a (deserved) reputation for being more lenient and open to child-rearing, as opposed to some other regions. A big reason for the general dip worldwide for birth rates is women being more than child-bearers, yet in the South it is still perfectly acceptable for a woman to be a stay at home mom, which is conducive to having more children. Also, blacks are now a solidly middle class race. That, mixed with the region, allows for the possibility of more children, due to the ability to both HAVE and RAISE children.
Also, if the last census was any indicator, the already "Black" South is becoming even more black, with blacks from other regions, especially the West, are moving to the South in record numbers. This would mean, by law of common sense, that indeed there ARE metro areas that are and will continue to "darken."
Lastly, we must not forget immigrants. Texas already has the largest Nigerian-American pop. in the US, and chain migration is real. I think with the growth of African countries, we will see more immigrants from Africa, further increasing the black population.
If you notice, the 2010 Census stated that the AA pop. constituted around 12.5% of the GenAmer pop. Now it is the beginning of 2013, and the black pop. is believed to be just above 14% already, and expected, like all other groups to grow in raw numbers...
Houston has over a million blacks. That's a whole lot of chocolate. Only NY, CHICAGO, ATL, DC, MIAMI AND PHILLY can say they do too. That is quite an achievement. Any city with a million or more blacks Has a black presense. LA is twice as large but has fewer blacks than Houston. The CSAs of San Jose and Boston are 15 to 30% larger than Houston and yet has 30% less blacks.
You are naming mostly cities that already have millions of residents in their city and/or metro anyway, so of course many of them are going to have up to a million blacks or more by default. It's the PERCENTAGE that makes the difference, though. Houston---even with over a million blacks---still only has about a 30% overall black population. But take a city that's predominately black like Detroit, New Orleans, Memphis, (and I'd even throw ATL in there these days), etc. and watch its quality of life drop. Sorry, but it's true.
You are naming mostly cities that already have millions of residents in their city and/or metro anyway, so of course many of them are going to have up to a million blacks or more by default. It's the PERCENTAGE that makes the difference, though. Houston---even with over a million blacks---still only has about a 30% overall black population. But take a city that's predominately black like Detroit, New Orleans, Memphis, (and I'd even throw ATL in there these days), etc. and watch its quality of life drop. Sorry, but it's true.
That has nothing at all to do with the subject of the thread, so what's the point in even mentioning this? Take it to the "Politics and Other Controversies" forum.
Most blacks live in the South, a region (similar to the Midwest) that has a (deserved) reputation for being more lenient and open to child-rearing, as opposed to some other regions. A big reason for the general dip worldwide for birth rates is women being more than child-bearers, yet in the South it is still perfectly acceptable for a woman to be a stay at home mom, which is conducive to having more children. Also, blacks are now a solidly middle class race. That, mixed with the region, allows for the possibility of more children, due to the ability to both HAVE and RAISE children.
You're really overstating the whole "stay-at-home" mom thing. I'm from the rural South, and that's more of an exception than the norm. In terms of us being more middle class, that isn't really affecting birth rates one way or the other. If anything, the big hit Black America took during the recession and in its aftermath would argue against this.
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Also, if the last census was any indicator, the already "Black" South is becoming even more black, with blacks from other regions, especially the West, are moving to the South in record numbers. This would mean, by law of common sense, that indeed there ARE metro areas that are and will continue to "darken."
In raw numbers, of course more Blacks will move here, but so will other groups. That's why you're not going to see much in the way of percentage increases in terms of the Black populations of most sizable metros.
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Lastly, we must not forget immigrants. Texas already has the largest Nigerian-American pop. in the US, and chain migration is real. I think with the growth of African countries, we will see more immigrants from Africa, further increasing the black population.
This could possibly be a wild card. But if African immigrants are moving to metros that everyone else is moving to, like Houston and DC, you're still not going to see increases percentage-wise.
Hispanics and Asians are the fastest growing groups in the US. Houston and DFW were what the 2nd &3rd metros in raw gain of blacks last decade, and even then the percentage of blacks in both metros dropped.
I thought they had risen by a tad? Anyway, I can see Houston's percentage increase to atleast 19%.
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