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THose figures are off for Michigan, Weve lost hundreds of thousands in just 5 years. We were over 10 mil during the last census, but most say we are not anymore. I would say 8 million in 20 years may be closer to reality. There are some towns here that look half abandoned now, I cant imagine what 20 years from now will look like
The projections are "off base"...especially for Florida and Pennsylvania...IMHO.
Yes. I can't see FL growing at more than 200k a yr. The six million they thought would come down here taking us to 28M I would bet most will be going to TX,GA and NC instead with perhaps more potential snowbirds staying up north as their main residence..
Data is already out of date. I think proximity uses 2000 census data with projection.
For example, Georgia has already eclipsed the 10 million mark, the 10 county Atlanta area alone is growing at 130,000 per year. The AJC stated we should be around 16 million by 2025.
With this said I do hope your data is correct, it is already a traffic filled sardine can here now.
Oh it's hilarious to look back on this post given that the Census validated that Georgia was overestimating its population. Remember, this post was from 2007.
Pink is if the state already surpassed the projection Blue is if the state is within 100,000 of surpassing the projection Purpleis within200,000 Green is within 300,000 Redis within 400,000 Orangeis within500,000 Black is beyond that
CA -9,190,905
TX -8,176,183
FL -9,884,459
NY -90,327
IL -602,260
PA -65,805
NC -2,692,256
GA -2,330,185
OH -14,024
AZ -4,320,380
MI -810,532
VA -1,823,995
NJ -1,010,546
WA -1,900,261
TN -1,034,529
MD -1,248,699
MA -464,380
IN -326,306
MO -441,246
MN -1,002,205
WI -463,778
CO -763,161
SC -523,205
AL -94,507
OR -1,002,844
KY -215,631
LA -269,261
NV -1,581,551
OK -161,900
CT -114,533
UT -721,485
AR -324,290
MS -125,113
IA +91,183
KS -86,966
NM -40,529
ID -402,042
NE +6,094
WV +133,035
NH -330,001
HI -105,745
ME -82,736
RI -100,374
MT -55,483
DE -114,724
AK -157,433
ND -127,871
VT -86,126
SD +207,614
WY +40,647
DC +168,309
Oklahoma by then should be over 4 million.
Arkansas about 3.5 million.
Louisiana 5 million if not more.
New Mexico 2.8-3.2 million.
Texas around 34 million.
I think Pennsylvania is pace to surpass Illinois as the population gap between the 2 states have clearly gotten smaller. Wouldn't surprise me if Pennsylvania surpasses Illinois in the 2020 census.
Thanks for the interesting topic, but I clearly the 2010 census shows some of these numbers very far off, and to project another 20 years I think needs a lot of inference from current trends and projecting what post-industrial cities look like and how the destination cities of the South and West respond as growth eventually slows. We know from the recession how badly these economies were hit when there was no more demand for new housing, and unemployment skyrocketed. Florida and Nevada saw dramatic shifts in population as they overbuilt and placed too many assumptions on unrestricted growth. Florida has had 40-80 percent growth every ten years for the last century, but it's slowest years have been since 2000. In 2010 it grew at 17 percent, estimates for 2020 are being rewritten at anywhere between 5-20 percent but likely under 10. It won't have 28 million by 2030 barring some immense unknown factor or turnaround. It may take that long for housing construction to return to 2006 levels.
I think both of the Dakotas will pass the 1 million mark. Having lived there in the early 90s, the states have already about doubled their populations in the last thirty years - Sioux Falls has doubled in population since 1990 and Fargo is really a quality small city for families with job opportunities. The natural gas boom around Williston will surely help to develop that corner of the state. Rapid City spent a lot of time developing subdivisions but little effort in expanding its downtown business district, so housing prices are more affordable, businesses will follow as more people move to eastern SD and ND, and with some luck it'll surpass 100 000 people by 2030.
I think the census projections are much too conservative for the Northeast and upper Midwest, where crime has fallen, housing prices in many cities remained well under market value elsewhere, and smaller businesses are beginning to take hold where large manufacturers once dominated the Rust-Belt cities. It's also the only region where mass transit consistently works on the regional level and if you believe this is part of our future in the next 10-20 years, then the growth of this region will be much higher than the 1970-2000 slowdown that the census looked at. 2000-2010 saw stabilization and modest growth in the region, which is why New York was projected to have a modest 4-5 percent increase over 30 years, which it already had in the first decade. I think Connecticut will surpass 4.2 million and New Jersey 11 million with the revitalization of cities such as Newark, Bridgeport and Hartford as young urban centers, where rent is cheap, the arts popular, and tax rates reversing from their all-time highs (and other communities catch up).
The biggest growth in my estimation will be the Upper Plains and northern Rockies. Americans are always looking for the next destination. Until the 80s it was California and Florida. Then North Carolina, Colorado, Georgia, Arizona and Texas took over the mantle. Lately the focus has been primarily on Texas with places like Utah, Montana and Idaho experiencing growth. I think we use the next decade to collectively look at the last places to not have a boom, where the economy is ready to jump and the need for labor large (the Dakotas, Montana, Nebraska), and we'll see increased development and population follow. After that, we may see a return to the locations where housing prices have remained low with established urban centers, i.e. the Northeast, with increased attention to sustainability and ecological footprints becoming considerations. I also think that, after looking at the transformations of cities like Pittsburgh and Baltimore from areas of hopelessness to new urban destinations for young professionals, that the possibilities for places like Detroit, Cleveland, Youngstown, Buffalo, Rochester and the 500 other Rust-Belt cities are ahead of the curve facing the next boom.
None of this even really looks at the possibility of increased immigration from places like India, Bangladesh, China, Brazil or Subsaharan Africa. We have a lot of places that could benefit from modestly educated immigrants, and I think many communities will take a more pragmatic look at work-to-live programs for immigrants from non-traditional countries. Those places with the most depressed economies may be tomorrow's most willing recipients of immigration and their accompanying tax dollars.
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